Sam Farmer’s NFL picks Week 16

Dallas at Arizona

Records: 5-9; 4-10.

When: Saturday, 4:30 p.m.

TV: NFL Network.

Line: Cowboys by 6. O/U: 45.

Cowboys are playing a lot harder under Jason Garrett than they did under Wade Phillips. Cardinals quarterback John Skelton will have his hands full. Cowboys 24, Cardinals 20

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New England at Buffalo

Records: 12-2; 4-10.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 704.

Line: Patriots by 8. O/U: 44.

This is a trap game, but Tom Brady and the Patriots won’t fall for it. They’ve beaten the Bills 19 of 20 times, and now home field is on the line. Patriots 30, Bills 20

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N.Y. Jets at Chicago

Records: 10-4; 10-4.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bears by 1. O/U: 36.

The Bears are rolling and have the incentive of a playoff bye within their reach. It doesn’t help the Jets that Mark Sanchez has a sore shoulder. Bears 28, Jets 24

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Baltimore at Cleveland

Records: 10-4; 5-9.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 39.

The Browns couldn’t find an answer to Anquan Boldin the first time around, and they’ll struggle to cover him again. Ravens 28, Browns 20

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Tennessee at Kansas City

Records: 6-8; 9-5.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Chiefs by 5. O/U: 42.

The motivated Chiefs are undefeated at home and should stay that way. The Titans are done, and might want to test some younger players. Chiefs 20, Titans 17

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Detroit at Miami

Records: 4-10; 7-7.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Dolphins by 3. O/U: 41.

Now that the Lions have broken their NFL-record road losing streak, can they make it two in a row? Miami’s a good place to try. Dolphins are 1-6 at home. Lions 24, Dolphins 20

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San Francisco at St. Louis

Records: 5-9; 6-8.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 709

Line: Rams by 2. O/U: 39.?

Both of these teams are far better at home than on the road, so the Rams get a slight edge. Neither will put a lot of points on the board. Rams 17, 49ers 14

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Washington at Jacksonville

Records: 5-9; 8-6.

When: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Jaguars by 7. O/U: 45.

The Jaguars still have a flicker of hope to make the playoffs. Can the Redskins really trust Rex Grossman in a tough road game? Jaguars 23, Redskins 17

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San Diego at Cincinnati

Records: 8-6; 3-11.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Chargers by 7. O/U: 44.

Philip Rivers is 20-1 in December and, even though the postseason might ultimately be out of reach, he isn’t going to let Chargers lose to a bad team now. Chargers 35, Bengals 17

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Indianapolis at Oakland

Records: 8-6; 7-7.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 47.

Few quarterbacks have a killer instinct that can match Peyton Manning’s. He better hope, though, that his Colts can run the way they did last Sunday. Colts 30, Raiders 28

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Houston at Denver

Records: 5-9; 3-11.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Texans by 2. O/U: 48.

Houston’s miserable pass defense has to feel a little better facing Tim Tebow, who threw just 16 times against the Raiders last Sunday. Texans 24, Broncos 13

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Seattle at Tampa Bay

Records: 6-8; 8-6.

When: Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: none. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Buccaneers by 6. O/U: 44.

Even though Seattle might move the ball on the injury-riddled Buccaneers, that won’t be enough. Very tough to be fresh on the other coast. Buccaneers 24, Seahawks 20

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N.Y. Giants at Green Bay

Records: 9-5; 8-6.

When: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 111. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 43.

It looks like as if Aaron Rodgers will be coming back, and that’s huge for the Packers. But in foul weather, New York’s ability to run could be the difference. Giants 24, Packers 21

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Minnesota at Philadelphia

Records: 5-9; 10-4.

When: Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 4

Line: Eagles by 14. O/U: 43.

Whether it’s Brett Favre or Joe Webb at quarterback, the Vikings aren’t going to be able to trade punches with the NFL’s top-ranked offense. Eagles 38, Vikings 20

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New Orleans at Atlanta

Records: 10-4; 12-2.

When: Monday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN

Line: Falcons by 2. O/U: 48.

New Orleans has played well, and took the Falcons to overtime in Week 3. But Atlanta’s sterling record at home is no fluke. The Falcons are tough. Falcons 24, Saints 21