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California may have reached ‘peak almond.’ What happens next?

Blooming almond orchards in Fresno County.
Blooming almond orchards are shown last year near the Tombstone neighborhood in Sanger in unincorporated Fresno County.
(Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)
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Good morning. It’s Tuesday, March 5. Here’s what you need to know to start your day.

Has California reached ‘peak almond’?

California grows about 80% of the world’s almonds, with thousands of orchards spanning the state — many of them in the Central Valley. The state exports the majority of the crop and the tree nuts have become a staple of many pantries and fridges — and not just in trail mix. Think almond milk, almond butter and almond flour.

But after roughly a decade-long boom, the market is in a slump, The Times’ Ian James reported this week.

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“Prices have dropped over the last several years, and the state’s total almond acreage has started to decrease as growers have begun to tear out orchards and plant other crops,” Ian wrote. “In a sign of the troubles besetting the industry, one large almond-growing conglomerate has declared bankruptcy.”

That corporation, Trinitas Farming, cited record-low prices and high interest rates on land purchases. The total acreage devoted to almond growing has shrunk in the last two years as some farmers opt to plant other crops, while some orchards have been abandoned.

One factor in the price drop: too many almonds, not enough demand.

“It’s possible that we have hit peak almond,” Caity Peterson, associate director of the Public Policy Institute of California’s Water Policy Center, told Ian. “The industry will probably right-size itself to where the supply better meets the demand and it’s not oversupply, like we’ve got right now.”

So what could the future of almond growing look like in California?

Although some industry experts Ian spoke with expect a rebound, some critics see the thirsty crop’s downturn as an opportunity to rethink agricultural priorities as California works to build water resiliency.

As the almond industry blossomed, more growers were using more groundwater to cultivate the water-intensive crop, tapping an already depleted supply during drought years. New state rules in the pipeline aim to limit agricultural water use to help recharge aquifers after years of overpumping and drought.

“Researchers with the Public Policy Institute of California have estimated that addressing the groundwater deficit in the San Joaquin Valley will probably require taking at least half a million acres of farmland out of production,” Ian noted. “They’ve called for expanding efforts to help convert farmland to other uses, such as solar development or habitat areas.”

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You can read more about the state of the state’s almond industry in Ian’s story.

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For your downtime

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And finally ... a great photo

Show us your favorite place in California! We’re running low on submissions. Send us photos that scream California and we may feature them in an edition of Essential California.

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Danny Bowman, left, and Alex Grunbeck are shown inside their art gallery, BozoMag, a converted garage at their home in Highland Park. The current exhibition is called “Nouveau Bozeaux.”
(Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times)

Today’s great photo is from Times photographer Mel Melcon inside the Highland Park home of Danny Bowman and Alex Grunbeck, two of L.A.’s art cool kids who are hosting exhibits in laundry rooms and garages.

Have a great day, from the Essential California team

Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Stephanie Chavez, deputy metro editor

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