Emmys 2021: Our nomination predictions in all the key categories

Primetime Emmy nominations arrive Tuesday morning on the heels of a second consecutive socially distanced campaign season full of Zoom conversations, drive-in events and even the occasional mixer featuring actual contact, like a âSmall Axeâ dance party that wasnât exactly straight out of âLovers Rockâ (no sweaty swaying; attendees wore illuminated headphones and grooved to the music solo) ... but, hey, at least they could get out of their cars. (And there was an open bar.)
Elton John made a surprise appearance at a âPoseâ Rose Bowl event (âI am Elektra,â he proclaimed in a nod to Dominique Jacksonâs ballroom diva), and Kathryn Hahn and Anthony Mackie revved up a Rose Bowl Marvel night. Jason Sudeikis charmed voters at the Ford Amphitheatre a couple of days after wrapping shooting the second season of âTed Lasso,â though he didnât bring biscuits. Thatâs not quite cause for relegation ... but itâs close.
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The pandemic kept things largely virtual though, and, more important when it comes to nominations, sidelined several shows from competing. âStranger Things,â âBetter Call Saul,â âOzark,â âKilling Eveâ and last yearâs drama series winner, âSuccession,â all had their filming interrupted by COVID-19, leaving plenty of openings and a likely coronation for âThe Crown.â That would be Netflixâs first series to win an Emmy.
What should we expect on nominations morning? Anticipating good news for âMare of Easttown,â letâs pop open a Rolling Rock, unwrap a hoagie or three and look into the future.
Here are the biggest snubs and surprises and other key takeaways from the 2021 Emmy nominations.
LIMITED SERIES
âI May Destroy Youâ
âMare of Easttownâ
âThe Queenâs Gambitâ
âThe Underground Railroadâ
âWandaVisionâ
Possible snub: âWandaVisionâ
Possible surprise: âSmall Axeâ
You could put together a field of the limited series that wonât be nominated â âThe Good Lord Bird,â âItâs a Sin,â âThe Undoing,â âGenius: Aretha,â âFargo,â probably âSmall Axeâ â and itâd still be superior to the shows that will earn nods in the barren drama series category. Outside of âBlack Pantherâ at the 2019 Oscars, Marvel properties havenât been awards favorites. But âWandaVisionâ events drew big crowds at the Rose Bowl and online, and its occasional flourishes of invention might be enough to sell it to voters averse to the MCU formula.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE ACTRESS
Kate Winslet, âMare of Easttownâ
Anya Taylor-Joy, âThe Queenâs Gambitâ
Michaela Coel, âI May Destroy Youâ
Thuso Mbedu, âThe Underground Railroadâ
Elizabeth Olsen, âWandaVisionâ
Possible snub: Mbedu
Possible surprise: Cynthia Erivo, âGenius: Arethaâ
As most of the yearâs best limited series put women front and center, this category is just as brutally competitive as the series group. Iâd think that Mbedu, a star in her native South Africa, will earn a nomination, along with maybe a couple of other members of the âUnderground Railroadâ cast. But I donât have a strong sense of just how many voters made it past the seriesâ violent first episode (an escaped slave is caught, whipped and set on fire) to appreciate the extraordinary craft and storytelling in Barry Jenkinsâ deeply felt adaptation of Colson Whiteheadâs novel. The voters Iâve spoken with whoâve seen the series in its entirety have a passion that convinces me itâll probably do just fine.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE ACTOR
Ethan Hawke, âThe Good Lord Birdâ
Hugh Grant, âThe Undoingâ
Paul Bettany, âWandaVisionâ
Jeff Daniels, âThe Comey Ruleâ
Leslie Odom Jr., âHamiltonâ
Possible snub: Daniels
Possible surprise: Ewan McGregor, âHalstonâ
Emma Corrin, Hugh Grant, Ethan Hawke, Anthony Mackie, Elisabeth Moss and Jurnee Smollett take us behind the scenes to talk narcissists, grandparents and delivering meaningful work.
The âHamiltonâ troupe is indeed eligible in the acting categories, even though the filmed version of the 2016 stage performance, which premiered on Disney+ last July, is competing in the pre-recorded variety special category. The eligibility ruling is weird and, in the eyes of some, wrong as âHamiltonâ is not a TV movie or limited series. But, hey, I guess that even with 11 Tonys, a Grammy, a Pulitzer, a Kennedy Center Honor and more accolades than I have room to mention, Lin-Manuel Miranda needs an Emmy too. Or, more accurately, the Emmys need Lin-Manuel Miranda.
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Julianne Nicholson, âMare of Easttownâ
Kathryn Hahn, âWandaVisionâ
Letitia Wright, âSmall Axeâ
Marielle Heller, âThe Queenâs Gambitâ
Jean Smart, âMare of Easttownâ
Weruche Opia, âI May Destroy Youâ
Possible snub: Opia
Possible surprise: RenĂ©e Elise Goldsberry, âHamiltonâ
This will likely be one of two noms for Smart, the other being for her lead turn on the HBO Max comedy âHacks.â But its costar Nicholson who will likely win this Emmy, as the final episode of âMareâ served as a showcase for a turn that left us sobbing on the floor right with her. (âItâs Mare! She knows! Sheâs on her way here! She knows!â) Still, due respect to Smart, because falling out of a chair isnât as easy at it looks. That kind of talent makes her an easy favorite to win for âHacks.â
LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR
John Boyega, âSmall Axeâ
Bill Camp, âThe Queenâs Gambitâ
Evan Peters, âMare of Easttownâ
Donald Sutherland, âThe Undoingâ
Brendan Gleeson, âThe Comey Ruleâ
Daveed Diggs, âHamiltonâ
Possible snub: Diggs
Possible surprise: Aaron Pierre, âThe Underground Railroadâ
Iâve been extoling Steve McQueenâs âSmall Axeâ movie anthology for months, and in a perfect world, it would be an unstoppable Emmy force. Its five movies contain countless great performances, all of which were submitted in the supporting categories. Boyegaâs generous screen time playing Leroy Logan, the trailblazing Black police officer in the seriesâ third entry, âRed, White and Blue,â makes him a shoo-in. Iâm also partial to Shaun Parkes, as he delivered the best close-up acting of the year in the final moments of âMangrove,â the âSmall Axeâ courtroom drama. I respect Sutherlandâs eyebrow work as much as anyone. But not if it means Parkes doesnât receive his due.
DRAMA SERIES
âThe Crownâ
âThe Mandalorianâ
âBridgertonâ
âThe Handmaidâs Taleâ
âLovecraft Countryâ
âThis Is Usâ
âPoseâ
âThe Boysâ
Possible snub: âThe Boysâ
Possible surprise: âPerry Masonâ
The Envelope Showrunners Roundtable gathers the creators of âBridgerton,â âDickinson,â âHacks,â âThe Handmaidâs Tale,â âGenius: Arethaâ and âSmall Axeâ to talk television today.
All those drama series openings arenât necessarily a bad thing if voters reward âThe Boys,â Amazonâs dark, daring evisceration of superhero tropes and modern-day America. But if the dull (though well-acted) âPerry Masonâ makes it in instead, Iâll sue for emotional distress.
DRAMA ACTRESS
Emma Corrin, âThe Crownâ
Olivia Colman, âThe Crownâ
Uzo Aduba, âIn Treatmentâ
Jurnee Smollett, âLovecraft Countryâ
Elisabeth Moss, âThe Handmaidâs Taleâ
Mj Rodriguez, âPoseâ
Possible snub: Rodriguez
Possible surprise: Phoebe Dynevor, âBridgertonâ
Itâs a mix of perennial favorites (Moss, Aduba, Colman, maybe Sarah Paulson for âRatchedâ) and worthy newcomers (Smollett, Dynevor) and Rodriguez, never nominated though always in the conversation for her turn as the founder and mother of the House of Evangelista. With âPoseâ closing up shop after its third season, I think voters will make sure she receives an invitation.
DRAMA ACTOR
RegĂ©-Jean Page, âBridgertonâ
Josh OâConnor, âThe Crownâ
Billy Porter, âPoseâ
Matthew Rhys, âPerry Masonâ
Jonathan Majors, âLovecraft Countryâ
Sterling K. Brown, âThis Is Usâ
Possible snub: Majors
Possible surprise: Pedro Pascal, âThe Mandalorianâ
Did Pascal remove the Mandalorianâs helmet often enough to warrant a vote? It still seems a stretch to think that the costumed actor will receive a nomination, though his line readings were superb and his moustache always on point. Meanwhile, donât be completely shocked if Brownâs costar Milo Ventimiglia returns and earns a fourth nomination. The âThis Is Usâ fan base might be shrinking as the series nears the end, but itâs a passionate, loyal group.
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Gillian Anderson, âThe Crownâ
Helena Bonham Carter, âThe Crownâ
Emerald Fennell, âThe Crownâ
Erin Doherty, âThe Crownâ
Yvonne Strahovsky, âThe Handmaidâs Taleâ
Samira Wiley, âThe Handmaidâs Taleâ
Ann Dowd, âThe Handmaidâs Taleâ
Cynthia Nixon, âRatchedâ
Wunmi Mosaku, âLovecraft Countryâ
Possible snub: Mosaku
Possible surprise: Tatiana Maslany, âPerry Masonâ
Her Agent Dana Scully and now the formidable Iron Lady aside, Gillian Anderson is actually a little goofy.
With these supersize supporting categories, anything is possible, including four women from âThe Crownâ making the cut. Anderson and Carter have garnered most of the acclaim, but Fennell nailed Camilla Parker Bowleâs confidence and gets a bump thanks to the three Academy Award nominations (and one Oscar, for original screenplay) she earned for âPromising Young Woman.â And Doherty was given some raw, vulnerable moments this season playing Anne. Meanwhile, âThe Handmaidâs Taleâ cast figures to make a bit of a comeback, though thereâs plenty of other directions voters could go, including following Eltonâs endorsement of Jackson.
DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR
Michael Kenneth Williams, âLovecraft Countryâ
Tobias Menzies, âThe Crownâ
John Lithgow, âPerry Masonâ
Bradley Whitford, âThe Handmaidâs Taleâ
Giancarlo Esposito, âThe Mandalorianâ
Anthony Ramos, âIn Treatmentâ
Chris Sullivan, âThis Is Usâ
Jonathan Bailey, âBridgertonâ
Possible snub: Bailey
Possible surprise: John Benjamin Hickey, âIn Treatmentâ
âIn Treatmentâ is an actors showcase, so itâs easy to see both Ramos and Hickey earning nominations, though competition here is fierce with three-time winner Whitford and six-time champ Lithgow in the mix. Then too thereâs Williams, a three-time nominee, including one for his legendary turn as Omar Little in âThe Wire.â No Black actor has ever won this category, but with Williamsâ strong work on âLovecraft Country,â that could soon change.
COMEDY SERIES
âTed Lassoâ
âHacksâ
âThe Flight Attendantâ
âPEN15"
âGirls5evaâ
âCobra Kaiâ
âblack-ishâ
âThe Kominsky Methodâ
Possible snub: âCobra Kaiâ
Possible surprise: âMaster of Noneâ
Is a series a comedy if it barely delivers a smile, much less a genuine laugh? Thatâs the question voters pondered as they considered âMaster of None,â which made some very deliberate choices for its third season: its boxy aspect ratio, filming the episodes in artfully composed static wide shots that are held for loooong periods of time and, yes, excising the comedy in telling the story of a queer woman looking to have a baby with her partner. Thereâs room for debate about whether the showâs aesthetic works. But you canât argue that this season is a comedy, making its placement in these categories strange, even though it fits with its prior categorization.
COMEDY ACTRESS
Jean Smart, âHacksâ
Kaley Cuoco, âThe Flight Attendantâ
RenĂ©e Elise Goldsberry, âGirls5evaâ
Tracee Ellis Ross, âblack-ishâ
Jane Levy, âZoeyâs Extraordinary Playlistâ
Possible snub: Levy
Possible surprise: Robin Thede, âA Black Lady Sketch Showâ
Comedy submissions dipped from last year, and because a categoryâs nomination numbers depend on the number of entries, weâre looking at a smaller slate for comedy acting â five for leads, seven for supporting. (The drama acting nomination numbers are the same as last year: six for leads, eight for supporting.) Anyway, this could be disappointing news for bubble contenders like Allison Janney (âMomâ) and Maya Erskine (âPEN15"), though hopefully not for Thede and her exhilarating work on âA Black Lady Sketch Show.â
COMEDY ACTOR
Jason Sudeikis, âTed Lassoâ
Michael Douglas, âThe Kominsky Methodâ
Anthony Anderson, âblack-ishâ
Kenan Thompson, âKenanâ
Ted Danson, âMr. Mayorâ
Possible snub: Danson
Possible surprise: Ralph Macchio, âCobra Kaiâ
Howâs this for an old-school group? And one alternative is Macchio, who is ... [checking notes] 59 years old??? How is that possible? Another is William H. Macy for the swan song season of âShameless.â Macy has 12 Emmy acting nominations, though his last nod for âShamelessâ came three years ago. A nom would be a nice parting gift, but I donât see it happening.
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Hannah Waddingham, âTed Lassoâ
Rosie Perez, âThe Flight Attendantâ
Juno Temple, âTed Lassoâ
Kate McKinnon, âSaturday Night Liveâ
Cecily Strong, âSaturday Night Liveâ
Hannah Einbinder, âHacksâ
Zosia Mamet, âThe Flight Attendantâ
Possible snub: Mamet
Possible surprise: Paula Pell, âGirls5evaâ
For a show about a folksy American dude taking over a menâs soccer team that mostly takes place on athletic fields and inside a testosterone-filled locker room, âTed Lassoâ is often at its best when focusing on its women â Waddinghamâs conflicted team owner whose defenses are broken down by biscuits and Templeâs stereotype-shattering model. Their charactersâ unlikely friendship was one of the showâs many surprises.
The Comedy Roundtable calls on Wanda Sykes, Jane Krakowski, Kenan Thompson, Anna Konkle, Robin Thede, and newcomer to funny Michiel Huisman to cheer us up.
COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brett Goldstein, âTed Lassoâ
Kenan Thompson, âSaturday Night Liveâ
Michiel Huisman, âThe Flight Attendantâ
Bowen Yang, âSaturday Night Liveâ
Brendan Hunt, âTed Lassoâ
Ray Romano, âMade for Loveâ
Nick Mohammed, âTed Lassoâ
Possible snub: Hunt
Possible surprise: Paul Reiser, âThe Kominsky Methodâ
That leaves us with all the âTed Lassoâ men, including Jeremy Swiftâs delightful turn as Higgins, the charming, compliant communications director. I think at least three make it in. Four might be a stretch, particularly with competition from the likes of the names above and the trailblazing Alex Newell (âZoeyâs Extraordinary Playlistâ), Laurence Fishburne (âblack-ishâ) and T.R. Knight (âThe Flight Attendantâ). Come to think of it, three might be a stretch. But if you canât be optimistic about âTed Lasso,â then youâve missed the point of the show.
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