Dodgers Dugout: The best rotation in the NL West belongs to ... (spoiler: They wear blue)
Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell, and take some time today to read this story by Andy McCullough that gives you a rare glimpse into the background and thought process of Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi.
Comparing the teams
Time for the starting rotation in the continuing series of comparing players on the NL West teams. I will be looking at the top four starters for each team, as each team has several pitchers that can pitch in the No. 5 spot. And I am not going strictly by what order they start the season. All statistics are courtesy of baseball-reference.com. Stat explainers: FIP here,WHIP here. WAR here.
No. 1 starter
1. Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers
Last three seasons: 49-14/1.89 ERA/1.88 FIP/0.833 WHIP/20.6 WAR
The best pitcher in baseball during the regular season, and the leading candidate to win the Cy Young Award, which would be his fourth.
2. Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco
Last three seasons: 51-28/2.88/3.06/1.040/13.9
Bumgarner is arguably one of the top five starters in baseball, but can only rank second in his own division. If you combined Kershaw’s regular-season statistics with Bumgarner’s postseason stats, you’d have the greatest pitcher in history.
3. Zack Greinke, Arizona
Last three seasons: 49-18/2.76/3.20/1.067/15.8
Arizona would love to revisit that huge contract Greinke signed after his poor first year with the Diamondbacks. He’ll never again be the pitcher he was two seasons ago, and he needs a better defense behind him than the Diamondbacks will provide. But he will be effective at a level below true ace. And all that talk about “the Dodgers can’t win without him” has finally faded away.
4. Jon Gray, Colorado
Last two seasons: 10-12/4.79/3.61/1.332/2.6
Gray got worse as last season went along, but projects as a solid No. 1 or No. 2 starter when he fully develops. He is only 24 and had a 3.30 ERA from May through July before tiring; he should take a big step forward this season.
5. Jhoulys Chacin, San Diego
Last three seasons: 9-16/4.81/4.30/1.423/0.7
If you are managing a baseball team and you are surrounded by reporters who are waiting for you to announce your opening-day starter, take a look at the name you have written down on the card. If it says “Jhoulys Chacin,” cancel the news conference, return to your office and either find someone better or resign, because you are in for a long season.
No. 2 starter
1. Johnny Cueto, San Francisco
Last three seasons: 49-27/2.80/3.26/1.057/15.9
Cueto is a lot of fun to watch, with his collection of shakes and shimmies on the mound, but lost in all of that is just how good he is. He takes the ball every fifth day, pitches deep into games and gives his team a chance to win. What more can you ask for?
2. Rich Hill, Dodgers
Last three seasons: 14-6/2.05/2.36/0.982/5.9
The man with one of the most awkward follow throughs in the game has renewed his career at age 36. There’s no reason to think he can’t keep up his excellent pitching in between downtime for blisters.
3. Tyler Chatwood, Colorado
Last three seasons: 13-9/3.96/4.40/1.352/3.8
Chatwood missed all of 2015 because of Tommy John surgery but had a good return last season with the Rockies. Coors Field kills him. Since joining the Rockies, he has a 4.85 career ERA there, and and a 3.24 ERA everywhere else
4. Taijuan Walker, Arizona
Last three seasons: 21-22/4.21/4.39/1.222/2.4
Walker is coming off three disappointing seasons with Seattle. He relies on a fastball, but doesn’t know where it is going all the time, so sometimes he looks like Bob Gibson and other times he looks like Bob Denver. If he could develop a strong secondary pitch, he’d start moving up this list.
5. Clayton Richard, San Diego
Last two seasons: 7-6/3.52/3.94/1.509/0.8
Richard is OK, and is with the Padres to help show all the young pitchers the team has how to pitch the ball, not just throw the ball.
No. 3 starter
1. Kenta Maeda, Dodgers
Last season: 16-11/3.48/3.58/1.139/2.4
Maeda pitched well last season, but he tired badly at the end of the season and fell apart in the playoffs (6.75 ERA). He had an off-season conditioning program designed to improve his strength and endurance. If he can stay relatively fresh,that will be quite a boost for the Dodgers.
2. Tyler Anderson, Colorado
Last season: 5-6/3.54/3.59/1.286/3.5
Anderson was a big success for the Rockies last season after missing all of 2015 with a broken elbow. He pitched only 114 innings, so his next big step will be pitching a full season without breaking down.
3. Matt Moore, San Francisco
Last three seasons: 16-18/4.35/4.34/1.356/2.0
The onetime No. 2 prospect in all of baseball is just a rotation-filling guy now. The Giants gave up a top prospect to get him during last season, and he went 6-5 with a 4.08 ERA.
4. Robbie Ray, Arizona
Last three seasons: 14-31/4.65/3.80/1.452/1.6
Ray strikes out a lot of hitters (218 in 174 innings last season), but when hitters make contact, they hit the ball hard. His peripheral stats suggest that he was a bit unlucky, so he could pitch much better this season, but he has to learn to pitch and not just throw.
5. Jered Weaver, San Diego
Last three seasons: 37-33/4.37/4.83/1.297/2.5
Weaver’s “fastball” barely reaches 85 mph. He had a 5.06 ERA last season and still finished 12-12. This year, the Padres have petitioned to let him use a whiffle ball.
No. 4 starter
1. Julio Urias, Dodgers
Last season: 5-2/3.39/3.17/1.455/1.0
He won’t start the season in the rotation but he will be up with the big team soon. After two shaky starts to begin his major-league career, Urias went 5-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 77 strikeouts in 69 innings. In his last seven appearances, he went 3-0 with a 1.26 ERA. And he’s only 20.
2. Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco
Last three seasons: 30-37/3.91/3.75/1.185/6.7
Samardzija is going to pitch about 200 innings, finish with an ERA near 4 and have a .500 record. This is what he does, and he is very good at it.
3. Shelby Miller, Arizona
Last three seasons: 19-38/3.94/4.15/1.345/4.5
The guy who pretty much forced Dave Stewart out of the GM job in Arizona, because while Miller went 3-12 for the Diamondbacks, the guys they traded for him, Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson, look like they will be major leaguers for a long time. Miller says he is going to have a bounce-back season, but there is no real evidence he was ever that great a pitcher to begin with.
4. Kyle Freeland, Colorado
Rookie
The Rockies had three pitchers battling for the last two spots in the rotation: Freeland, Antonio Senzatela and Harrison Musgrave. None of them have pitched in the majors. Senzatela has the biggest upside, but at the time of this writing, it looks as though Freeland has the upper hand for the No. 4 spot. Ranking them with any confidence is a fool’s errand, so here’s my best guess.
5. Luis Perdomo, San Diego
Last season: 9-10/5.71/4.84/1.589/-1.0
Many experts out there are projecting Perdomo to get the No. 4 spot for the Padres. I’m not so sure, but whoever gets the No. 4 spot is not going to be very good. The Padres project to have a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad rotation.
This concludes the look at the rotations. If we assign points based on where a player ranks at each position, giving seven points for first place, five for second, three for third, two for fourth and one for fifth, then the NL West stacks up like this as far as the rotations go:
Dodgers, 26 points
San Francisco, 20 points
Colorado, 12 points
Arizona, 10 points
San Diego, 4 points
That brings the grand total so far to:
Dodgers, 62 points
Colorado, 48 points
San Francisco, 47 points
Arizona, 39 points
San Diego, 20 points
We still have bullpen (Saturday) and bench/manager (Sunday) to look at. On Monday, we’ll look at the opening-day roster and preview the season.
Ask Ross Porter
Once again, former Dodgers announcer Ross Porter will be answering select reader questions. Email me a question for Ross, and I will pass it on. The answers will begin once the season starts, but send the questions in now!
And finally
A father-son lunch at Dodger Stadium is filled with hope of a World Series title.
Have a comment or something you’d like to see in a future Dodgers newsletter? Email me and follow me on Twitter: @latimeshouston.
Twitter: @latimeshouston
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