Racing! Jon White’s final Kentucky Derby poll and analysis

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome to our horse racing newsletter as we catch up on a wild week of news from the Kentucky Derby.

All eyes are on Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Bob Baffert is looking like a sixth win is a very real possibility. Those of you that spend time with the L.A. Times website and print edition should be caught up on everything. But if you missed something, let’s review some stories to read.

--I don’t say this often of my stories, but if you are interested in the future of California racing, this is a must read. It’s a special report that examines all the factors in play that will decide if California racing can survive. You’ll also learn a lot about the proposed ballot initiative. Just click here.

--Richard Mandella was devastated and Simon Callaghan was injured. Catch up with some Derby notes from Thursday. (Or Thurby as they call it in Lousville.) Just click here.

--Omaha Beach has to scratch from the Kentucky Derby. Relive that moment from this Wednesday night dispatch. Just click here.

--Baffert has the three top horses in the Kentucky Derby. Examine behind the curtain, what he may be thinking. Just click here.

--I know, it may not be relevant, but here’s a nice look at Mandella and what he was thinking about Omaha Beach before he scratched. Just click here.

--Here’s what the trainers thought of the Derby draw. Just click here.

--Why have favorites been winning the Kentucky Derby lately? And what about the 20 years the favorite didn’t win? We talk to our own Jon White and Derby morning-line maker Mike Battaglia about why this happens. Just click here.

Oh, yeah, if you don’t want to stay up all night reading these stories I poured blood, sweat and tears into, you can probably learn all you need to know from Jon White’s rankings.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Time to turn our attention to the Kentucky Derby. As always, we’re lucky to have the top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening there. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward, and he’s the pre-eminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here’s his Kentucky Derby rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com. Jon, the floor is yours.

“Before listing my final 2019 Kentucky Derby Top 10, let's review the five questions I posed in this newsletter back on Jan. 11.

“Will there be another Triple Crown winner this year? Back on Jan. 11, I said it's certainly not out of the question. But as of today it looks unlikely because there does not appear to be a superstar in the Kentucky Derby this year like an American Pharoah or a Justify. But there's always the possibility that whoever wins the Kentucky Derby this year goes on to capture the Preakness and then heads to the Belmont Stakes with a chance for Triple Crown glory.

“If there is another Triple Crown winner in 2019, will Bob Baffert be the trainer? Omaha Beach had been on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 since Feb. 8 and in the No. 1 spot since March 22. But it was announced Wednesday that Omaha Beach, the 4-1 morning-line favorite trained by Richard Mandella, would be scratched from the Kentucky Derby due to an entrapped epiglottis, a throat condition that can hinder breathing. Following that shocking development, Baffert now trains the three horses with the lowest odds on the morning line: Game Winner at 9-2, Improbable at 5-1 and Roadster also at 5-1. Consequently, if there is a Triple Crown winner this year, it seems likely that Baffert would be the trainer, especially considering Baffert has won two recent Triple Crowns (American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2018).

“If Baffert does not win another Triple Crown this year, will he at least get another Kentucky Derby victory? It looks like there is a good chance of that happening. If it does, Baffert will tie Ben Jones’ longstanding record for most Kentucky Derby wins by a trainer. Baffert has five Kentucky Derby victories to his credit (Silver Charm, Real Quiet, War Emblem, American Pharoah and Justify), one fewer than Jones (Laurin, Whirlaway, Pensive, Citation, Ponder and Hill Gail).

“Is yet another favorite going to win the 2019 Kentucky Derby? Six straight favorites have won (Orb in 2013, California Chrome in 2014, American Pharoah in 2015, Nyquist in 2016, Always Dreaming in 2017 and Justify in 2018). I thought Omaha Beach had an excellent chance to win and make it seven favorites in a row. I believe that the absence of Omaha Beach does decrease the chances that the favorite will win this year.

“Will this year's Kentucky Derby winner be based in California? Five of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners (I'll Have Another in 2012, California Chrome in 2014, American Pharoah in 2015, Nyquist in 2016 and Justify in 2018) have been based in the Golden State. The two exceptions during this period were based in Florida (Orb in 2013 and Always Dreaming in 2017). One of the Baffert-trained trio certainly could be another California-based winner. The only other California-based entrant is Gray Magician, who is 50-1 on the morning line. Peter Miller trains Gray Magician.

“The first rankings of 2019 in the Jan. 11 edition of this newsletter were: 1. Game Winner, 2. Improbable, 3. Instagrand, 4. Maximus Mischief, 5. Mucho, 6. Vekoma, 7. Network Effect, 8. Mucho Gusto, 9. Signalman, 10. Mihos.

Jon White's final 2019 Kentucky Derby Top 10, courtesy of Xpressbet:

“1. War of Will (15-1 morning line odds). Last week ranked No. 4. With my original top pick Omaha Beach now out of the race, this year's Kentucky Derby looks wide open to me. As I have previously written, my rankings are a reflection of how I view a horse's chances to win the Kentucky Derby. War of Will finished ninth in the Louisiana Derby, but he was a 4-5 favorite that day. If he had won the Louisiana Derby, he would be four for four on dirt and most likely would be regarded as one of the Kentucky Derby favorites. He has trained like a beast since his Louisiana Derby debacle. Highly respected private clocker Gary Young said to Mike Willman on his radio program last Sunday that War of Will's five-furlong workout in 59.00 seconds at Churchill Downs last Saturday was ‘lights out.’ True, War of Will drew the dreaded No. 1 post. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from that post since Ferdinand in 1986. But War of Will typically breaks alertly. If he does that Saturday, he will race forwardly early. That would give him a chance to be first or second with an eighth of a mile left to run. Keep in mind 53 of the last 56 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to go.

“2. Game Winner (9-2). Last week ranked No. 3. I think they are going to have a difficult time keeping him out of the exacta. Game Winner is only a nose and a half-length away from coming into this race as a six-for-six Eclipse Award winner. As noted above, he was No. 1 on my first 2019 rankings in January. Game Winner has finished second in both 2019 starts, but he's acquitted himself well in defeat each time. He lost a division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park by a scant nose to Omaha Beach, who in all likelihood was going to be the Kentucky Derby favorite. Game Winner then lost the Santa Anita Derby by a half-length, but raced wide and traveled four lengths or so farther than the victorious Roadster. Game Winner won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs last fall. A 2018 Kentucky Derby victory by the 2-year-old male champion of 2018 would not be the least bit surprising.

“3. Improbable (5-1). Last week ranked No. 6. Ranked No. 2 early in the rankings, he had slid some after losing both of his 2019 starts to date. He finished second to Long Range Toddy in a division of the Rebel and second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby. But despite those losses, Improbable has always looked like a very talented equine athlete, one who could have a big say in this year's Run for the Roses.

4. Roadster (5-1). Last week ranked No. 5. Last summer it was Roadster, not Game Winner, who was being touted as Baffert's next big star following Justify's Triple Crown sweep. Don't forget Roadster was a 3-5 favorite when Game Winner won the Del Mar Futurity at odds of 8-5 last Sept. 3. Roadster had a breathing problem when he finished third in that Del Mar race, an issue that subsequently was addressed through throat surgery (although more complicated than Omaha Beach’s problem). Roadster has won both races this year, including the Santa Anita Derby in only his fourth career start when he beat last year's 2-year-old male champ in Game Winner. Of course, it's not encouraging for Roadster that when jockey Mike Smith had to make a choice between Roadster and Omaha Beach, he opted to ride Omaha Beach in the Kentucky Derby.

5. Maximum Security (8-1). Last week ranked No. 2. Talk about a tricky read. Maximum Security is undefeated and untested. He's won his four races by a jaw-dropping average of 9 1/2 lengths. His speed figures are the best in the field. But I have decided to lower him to No. 5 this week because he is now facing, by far, tougher opponents than ever before. If he outruns all of his rivals Saturday, he will become the 10th undefeated Kentucky Derby winner. In this regard, he would emulate Regret (1915), Morvich (1922), Majestic Prince (1969), Seattle Slew (1977), Smarty Jones (2004), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Nyquist (2016) and Justify (2018). The way I look at Maximum Security, it really could be a case of feast or famine. If he doesn't win, he might very well finish way back.

6. Tacitus (8-1). Last week ranked No. 7. There is much to like about Tacitus. He has a Hall of Fame trainer in Bill Mott, who won so many marquee events with the great Cigar. Tacitus' breeding is second to none. He is a son of the top sire Tapit and Eclipse Award winner Close Hatches. Tacitus demonstrated that he can overcome adversity in his most recent start when he won the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct after getting knocked around early.

7. Code of Honor (12-1). Last week ranked No. 9. I have moved him up on this week's rankings primarily off his dandy four-furlong workout in 46.80 seconds at Churchill Downs last Sunday. That could be a hint that he's poised to run a biggie Saturday. After winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 2, Code of Honor finished third behind Maximum Security and the maiden Bodexpress in the Florida Derby on March 30. But Code of Honor's style is to come from off the pace. His chances in the Florida Derby were compromised by a slow early pace. Code of Honor is another who has a Hall of Fame trainer, Shug McGaughey, who has trained future Hall of Fame members Easy Goer, Inside Information, Heavenly Prize, Lure and Personal Ensign. McGaughey won the Kentucky Derby with Orb in 2013, the last year in which the race was won by a horse who was farther back than third early.

8. By My Standards (15-1). Last week not ranked. The Louisiana Derby winner has been the “buzz horse” leading up to this year's Kentucky Derby. He seems to have improved dramatically in recent weeks for trainer Bret Calhoun. After By My Standards lost his first three career starts, he's registered back-to-back victories. He won a maiden race in New Orleans by a little more than four lengths on Feb. 16, then ran even better to get the job done at odds of 22-1 in the Louisiana Derby.

9. Vekoma (15-1). Last week ranked No. 8. People mock how he looks when he's running. It appears that he's paddling with his left front leg. So much so that if this were an equine swimming competition, he definitely would be the favorite. But with three wins from four career starts, Vekoma should not be taken lightly Saturday. After finishing third behind Code of Honor and Bourbon War in the Fountain of Youth, Vekoma rebounded to win the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland by an emphatic 3 1/2 lengths. Another plus for Vekoma is he has a Hall of Fame jockey in Javier Castellano, who figures to win a Kentucky Derby one of these years.

10. Long Range Toddy (30-1). Last week ranked No. 10. He might hit the board at huge odds if we see the same Long Range Toddy who rallied in the stretch to win the Rebel by a neck when Improbable was the runner-up. Long Range Toddy then ran sixth in the Arkansas Derby, but it's possible that disappointing effort can be excused because it was the first time he had ever raced on a wet track. Long Range Toddy's sire is Take Charge Indy, who won the Florida Derby in 2012. Take Charge Indy is a half-brother to Charming, the dam of Omaha Beach.”

Santa Anita preview

Friday’s pre-Derby card is eight races starting at 1 p.m. There are four turf races, and, of course, none are down the hill. The are two allowance/optional claimers for $67,000, so we’re going to pick the fourth, 1 1/8 miles on the turf for 3-year-old fillies.

The favorite, at 2-1, is Colonial Creed for trainer Richad Baltas and jockey Victor Espinoza. She is one-for-six lifetime and broke her maiden on Nov. 10. She was fifth last out in the Grade 3 Providencia Stakes.

Now, we don’t like to route for horses, but we’re pulling for Truffalino, at 3-1. Why? She’s trained by Richard Mandella and we want to do nothing but send good thoughts his way. Joe Talamo gets the mount. Truffalino is one-for-four lifetime and broke her maiden on Dec. 29.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 10, 5, 7, 5, 8, 9, 11 (3 also eligible).

Ciarin Thornton’s SA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 5 Tap the Wire (12-1)

Tap the Wire is “dropping” into this race off two straight stakes races. This is the second start off the bench for little know trainer Daniel Dunham. We have a sharp workout last week and a great 12-1 morning line. This is the first start on turf but note the victory going gate to wire on dirt last summer. Tap the Wire has blistering early speed and from this ideal post will look to wire the field. Also note the horse is racing protected today, another sign of confidence for this stakes quality horse.

Sunday’s result: What an exciting finish Sunday as Lord Guinness, with the aid of a perfect jockey ride, sat back off the fast pace and powered down the stretch to win by the head bob on the line. Lord Guinness paid a very nice $23 for the $2 win bet. Hunting for value at Santa Anita remains my strategy.

Ciarin Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Golden Gate weekend preview

We’re back with our weekly look at the best racing at Golden Gate Fields. As with the last couple meetings, we’re delighted to have race caller and all-around good guy Matt Dinerman as our host for previews and other musings. So, take it away, Matt.

“Last weekend’s Gold Rush Weekend was a big success, according to most. It handled a record breaking all source number of $8.1 million on Saturday and an additional $5.9 million on Sunday. It was an 80% increase over a year ago, with an increase of nearly $6.1 million.

“Just an outstanding 47 hours,” said David Duggan, Golden Gate Fields general manager and vice president. “Our fans, owners, horseplayers and horsemen have given us very positive feedback. Our numbers were very strong. Both days produced solid on-track crowds that were festive and exuberant. Our wagering product was fantastic and horseplayers were able to dive into competitive sequences with large pools. We are extremely pleased with how the inaugural Gold Rush Weekend went.”

The average field size was 8.48 spread out over 25 races. There were eight stakes races. On Saturday, the Grade 3, $250,000 San Francisco Mile, was won by Blitzkrieg. Ridden by Rafael Bejarano, Blitzkrieg won his third race in a row since being claimed by trainer Doug O’Neill for $25,000. Blitzkrieg is very well bred: by War Front out of the Grade 2 winning turf mare Bauble Queen. Grade 2 winner River Boyne had to settle for second while local Choo Choo completed the triefecta.

Also on Saturday, 3-year-old colt Kingly gave Bob Baffert his first California Derby win, when the brother to Grade 2 winner Mohaymen and Breeders’ Cup champ New Years Day defeated seven in the $100,000 race. Mario Gutierrez rode the royally bred son of Tapit for his third California Derby win in four years.

On Sunday, the Campanile and Silky Sullivan for California-breds, were also won by Southern California invaders. Kitty Boom Boom for Richard Baltas and Geovanni Franco was a romping winner of the Campanile while Irish Heatwave, ridden by Irving Orozco and conditioned by Keith Desormeuax, was able to hold off an oncoming late rally from Our Silver Oak and Echo Eddie Stakes winner Lieutenant Dan in the Silky Sullivan.

The fifth race on Friday is Leg B of the Stronach 5 wager with a field of nine maiden claimers. I really like No. 7 Hopscotchy for trainer Steve Sherman, who has outstanding numbers with maiden second-time starters. In his last start, he ran fifth and looked like a horse that needed the run. The top two finishers have both come back to win, so Hoptscotchy comes out of a key race.

Early first post on Kentucky Derby Saturday of 11:40 AM, with 10 races. The feature is a second-level allowance route on turf, featuring the return of stakes winner Gabo’s Macondo. Gabo’s Macondo hasn’t been seen since winning the Bulldog Stakes at Fresno.

There will be a new first post of 1:15 p.m. on weekends. Weekday and Memorial Day post times remains at 12:45 p.m., while Preakness (May 18) and Belmont Day (June 8) is scheduled for 11:45 a.m.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

It’s time to turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez, who will tell us about the upcoming weekend at Los Alamitos. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“The grandstand at Los Alamitos will open at 7 a.m. on Friday for simulcasting on Kentucky Oaks Day. The clubhouse will open at 9 a.m. and the Vessels Club will open at 10 a.m. On Kentucky Derby Saturday, all gates will open at 7 a.m.

“As for live racing, a pair of events for 2-year-olds highlight the eight-race program on Friday night. First post is 6 p.m. Needs No Intro, a $125,000 purchased at the 2018 Ruidoso Yearling Sale, headlines a field of nine juveniles in the seventh race. To be ridden by Ruben Castro for trainer Mike Robbins, Needs No Intro is the son of millionaire and 2008 champion colt One Famous Eagle and out of Separate Fire, the 2011 champion 2-year-old filly. Budderlicous is another top contender in the seventh. Purchased for $86,000 also at the Ruidoso Yearling Sale, the Utah-bred gelding by Corona Cartel is out of Budder Think Twice, who qualified to the 2015 Grade I Ed Burke Million Futurity and was second to Phoebes Dynasty in the restricted Grade I Governor’s Cup Futurity.

“Six 2-year-old fillies will debut in the fifth race on Friday night. The field will be headed by Kent Kleinknecht’s homebred Movie Star K, who posted the seventh fastest of 45 works on April 6 when working 12.30 seconds from the gate. This filly is a half-sister to Grade 2 stakes winner Pool ($438,689).

“Saturday’s eight-race program will be headed by the Grade 3 Kaweah Bar Handicap. Tarzanito, the 2018 champion aged stallion, and Ed Allred’s Well Good are among the eight horses in the 350-yard Kaweah Bar. Allred is one stakes win away from becoming the first owner with 100 quarter-horse stakes wins. The Hall of Fame owner and breeder became the first to 1,500 quarter-horse wins earlier this year.

“Nine trials to the Grade II, $362,300 Robert Adair Kindegarten Futurity will highlight Sunday’s card. Debut winners Diamond Rock, Kid Around, Dreams Divine, Cartel Jess Rockin and Scoop There It Is are among the top juveniles in the trials. A total of 71 2-year-olds will race with the 10 horses with the fastest times advancing to the May 19 final.”

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 4 Haybeautiful (9-5)

This mare was beaten less than a head from the rail post after stumbling at the start of last third-place try vs. stronger and was flattered when runnerup Rockin Energy returned to win for $20,000 last week. She now gets a positive post switch and drops a class level. She won by one length for the same claiming price three outs ago and her two lifetime wins have come at the race distance of 330 yards.

Final thought

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Now, the star of the show, Friday’s entries.