Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 16 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 13-3 (.813); season 150-74 (.670). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-8-2 (.429); season 107-105-2 (.505).

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (3-11) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (8-6)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m.

TV: NFL Network.

Line: Ravens by 13 1/2. O/U: 41.

The Colts haven’t figured out how to hold on to a lead. The Ravens are relatively healthy, and their defense is really solid. The Colts’ front seven is starting to show wear and tear.

Ravens 23, Colts 13

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (11-3) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (7-7)

Saturday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Vikings by 9. O/U: 41.

Aaron Rodgers is done for the season, but that wouldn’t make a huge difference in this one. The Vikings are playing for a bye, and they’ll seize this opportunity.

Vikings 28, Packers 17

CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-14) at CHICAGO BEARS (4-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bears by 6 1/2. O/U: 38.

The Bears’ defense is too good for them to lose to Cleveland, although this should be a fairly low-scoring, close game. The Browns are winless but respectable against the run.

Bears 14, Browns 10

MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-8) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Chiefs by 10 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Dolphins are heading into cold weather, and they’re too inconsistent. The Chiefs are brimming with confidence after pounding the Chargers, and an AFC West title is plenty of incentive.

Chiefs 28, Dolphins 21

BUFFALO BILLS (8-6) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Patriots by 11. O/U: 47.

The Patriots are a better team, but they have their issues and those just might be exposed in the playoffs. For now, they have enough firepower to beat the decent Bills.

Patriots 27, Bills 21

CHARGERS (7-7) at NEW YORK JETS (5-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Chargers by 7. O/U: 42 1/2.

Todd Bowles has done a good job for the Jets, even though the head coach will probably wind up getting fired. The Chargers need to win, though, and they’re going to here.

Chargers 28, Jets 24

DENVER BRONCOS (5-9) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Redskins by 3. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Broncos have gotten back into their defensive groove. Teams can definitely run on that Washington defense, so it won’t matter as much who is playing quarterback for Denver.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (4-10) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (10-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Panthers by 10. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Panthers have a lot of distractions and they’re not a particularly special team, but they keep finding ways to get it done. Quarterback Jameis Winston will struggle against the Carolina defense.

Panthers 31, Buccaneers 23

DETROIT LIONS (8-6) at CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Lions by 5. O/U: 44.

The Bengals look like they’ve quit. Joe Mixon could have a decent day if he comes back, but it won’t matter in the big picture. The Lions are a better team at the moment.

Lions 28, Bengals 20

ATLANTA FALCONS (9-5) at NEW ORLEANS (10-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Saints by 6. O/U: 52 1/2.

Alvin Kamara getting hurt on the first drive the last time these teams played really hurt the Saints offense. New Orleans will be a different-looking team this time around.

Saints 31, Falcons 27

RAMS (10-4) at TENNESSEE TITANS (8-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Rams by 7. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Titans play much better at home than on the road, but the Rams are roaring after that huge win at Seattle and should keep the momentum rolling with the NFC West title on the line.

Rams 34, Titans 24

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (10-4) at SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-10)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Jaguars by 4. O/U: 42.

San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo is playing well and kicker Robbie Gould is on fire, but QB Blake Bortles has surprised some people with his play for the Jaguars, and they have defensive muscle.

Jaguars 30, 49ers 20

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-12) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (6-8)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Cardinals by 3 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Quarterback was the big problem for Arizona last week. Drew Stanton can play well enough to win this one. Arizona’s defense isn’t likely to be picked apart by Eli Manning.

Cardinals 20, Giants 17

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-6) at DALLAS COWBOYS (8-6)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Cowboys by 5. O/U: 47 1/2.

Beware a well-coached team with a bunch of pros coming off an embarrassing defeat. Pete Carroll will have his players ready, but that broken down defense …

Cowboys 28, Seahawks 24

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (11-3) at HOUSTON TEXANS (4-10)

Monday, 1:30 p.m.

TV: Channel 4, NFL Network.

Line: Steelers by 9. O/U: 45.

The Steelers have a point to prove, and playoff incentive with that first-round bye on the line. This is a showcase game for Pittsburgh, and Le’Veon Bell gets the job done.

Steelers 27, Texans 17

OAKLAND RAIDERS (6-8) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (12-2)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Eagles by 9. O/U: 47 1/2.

Eagles have a proud defense that had been playing well but stumbled against the pass recently and was humbled by the Giants last week. That’s not good news for a deeply flawed Raiders team.

Eagles 34, Raiders 20