Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 1

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last season’s record 164-91-1 (.643). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last season would have been 137-117-2 (.539). Team records from last season.

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Indianapolis (11-5) at Buffalo (9-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Colts 24, Bills 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Colts by 2 1/2. O/U: 45.

The Bills will be improved, and they have one of the league’s most disruptive defensive lines, but Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck has enough weapons to come away with the win.

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Kansas City (9-7) at Houston (9-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 23, Texans 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Texans by 1. O/U: 41.

Neutralizing J.J. Watt is key for the Chiefs. The nod goes to Kansas City, because the Chiefs are more explosive offensively than last year and have the edge at quarterback.

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Cleveland (7-9) at N.Y. Jets (4-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 20, Browns 14

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Jets by 3 1/2. O/U: 40.

Cleveland doesn’t have the offensive firepower to scare this Jets defense. The Jets have the better quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick, and you won’t read those words many times this season.

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Miami (8-8) at Washington (4-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Dolphins 23, Redskins 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Dolphins by 3 1/2. O/U: 43.

Dolphins should make a run at the AFC East title, and Ndamukong Suh adds punch to a talented defense. Kirk Cousins gives the Redskins more stability at QB but this is a tough opener for him.

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Green Bay (12-4) at Chicago (5-11)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Packers 28, Bears 20

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Packers by 6 1/2. O/U: 49.

Losing Jordy Nelson was a setback for the Packers, but Green Bay shouldn’t have a problem handling Chicago on the road. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler is 1-10 against the Packers.

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Carolina (7-8-1) at Jacksonville (3-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 21, Jaguars 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Panthers by 3. O/U: 41 1/2.

With no Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina will try to run the ball more — and that includes QB Cam Newton. Jacksonville will be improved and Blake Bortles is talented, but Carolina still gets the edge.

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Seattle (12-4) at St. Louis (6-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Rams 17, Seahawks 14

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Seahawks by 4. O/U: 40 1/2.

With a shaky offensive line and no Kam Chancellor roaming the secondary, Seattle could stumble. The Rams should be better on offense, and their defensive line is a big strength.

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New Orleans (7-9) at Arizona (11-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Cardinals 27, Saints 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Cardinals by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Saints, who no longer have Jimmy Graham, are going to try to run it, and that’s going to be a problem against Arizona. Carson Palmer was 6-0 as a Cardinals starter before his knee injury.

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Detroit (11-5) at San Diego (9-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Chargers 28, Lions 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 46.

The Chargers have been known to stumble in these early-season home games, but they have the offensive firepower to beat a Detroit team that no longer has Suh or Nick Fairley on defensive front.

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Baltimore (10-6) at Denver (12-4)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Broncos 27, Ravens 24

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Broncos by 4. O/U: 48 1/2.

Peyton Manning threw seven TD passes against visiting Baltimore in the 2013 opener. This is a different Denver offense, though, and the primary focus will be on running the ball against stout Ravens.

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Cincinnati (10-5-1) at Oakland (3-13)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Bengals 21, Raiders 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Bengals by 3 1/2. O/U: 43.

Raiders are improved with quarterback Derek Carr in his second year, and some offensive weapons around him. Cincinnati should hold on with a solid running game and some defensive playmakers.

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Tennessee (2-14) at Tampa Bay (2-14)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Buccaneers 20, Titans 18

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Buccaneers by 3. O/U: 41.

It’s Jameis Winston versus Marcus Mariota again, although this one won’t be a blowout like the Rose Bowl. The Buccaneers have a slight edge at home, but these teams don’t scare anyone.

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N.Y. Giants (6-10) at Dallas (12-4)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Cowboys 31, Giants 24

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Cowboys by 6. O/U: 51.

Dallas is improved on defense, and its offense (Dez Bryant in particular) could cause problems for Giants. Eli Manning plays well here, and Odell Beckham Jr. is spectacular, but the Cowboys hold on.

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Philadelphia (10-6) at Atlanta (6-10)

Monday, 4 p.m.

Eagles 27, Falcons 21

TV: ESPN.

Line: Eagles by 3. O/U: 55.

The Eagles have new starters all over the field, including at quarterback and running back, but shouldn’t take long to get up to speed. Matt Ryan has receiving weapons, but line needs to buy him time.

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Minnesota (7-9) at San Francsisco (8-8)

Monday, 7:15 p.m.

Vikings 24, 49ers 17

TV: ESPN.

Line: Vikings by 2 1/2. O/U: 41.

The Vikings looked good this preseason, especially second-year QB Teddy Bridgewater. The 49ers look to be headed for a huge drop-off and will be hard-pressed to hold their ground, even at home.