Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 11 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 10-4 (.714); season 91-55 (.623). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-6 (.571); season 68-70-8 (.493).

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-3) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Jaguars by 8. O/U: 37.

The Jaguars have a swarming, playmaking defense, and that will be too much for the Browns, who still have to get their house in order offensively. They’re OK on defense.

Jaguars 24, Browns 9

BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Ravens by 2. O/U: 38.

Quarterback Brett Hundley is going to get increasingly better for the Packers, but he isn’t likely to take big strides against a Ravens defense with a problem-causing secondary.

Ravens 23, Packers 20

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS (1-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Chiefs by 10 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Chiefs needed to get healthy so their bye came at the right time. They’ve had times to regroup, and Andy Reid is 16-2 after off weeks. The Giants are in the midst of a collapse of epic proportions.

Chiefs 31, Giants 17

DETROIT LIONS (5-4) at CHICAGO BEARS (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Lions by 3. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Bears have played teams pretty solid, and they’re at home, but they might not enough to match Matthew Stafford, especially when his receivers are getting healthy.

Lions 27, Bears 20

ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-5) at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Texans by 1. O/U: 38 1/2.

The dropoff from Deshaun Watson to Tom Savage is massive, as the Rams showed last week. If Blaine Gabbert is at quarterback, watch for him to move the ball for Arizona.

Cardinals 23, Texans 17

RAMS (7-2) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Vikings by 2. O/U: 46.

The Rams lead the league in scoring and are 5-0 on the road, counting London. Scary thing for Rams is that the Vikings defense, like Washington and Seattle, could give Goff problems.

Rams 27, Vikings 24

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Saints by 8. O/U: 51.

Hard to pick against the Saints. Washington is a solid team but it’s dealing with offensive line issues. New Orleans defense is solid and Saints are running like crazy.

Saints 30, Redskins 24

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (3-6) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Pick ’em. O/U: 41.

Neither of these teams is reliable. Miami has weapons, and its defense should be better than it is. The Buccaneers are coming off a win over the Jets, but Tampa Bay has issues.

Dolphins 28, Buccaneers 23

BUFFALO BILLS (5-4) at CHARGERS (3-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: Channels 11, 13. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Chargers by 4 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Without Philip Rivers, the Chargers wouldn’t have a chance. But providing they can get him on the field, this team can bounce back and beat these cross-country travelers.

Chargers 28, Bills 24

CINNCINATI BENGALS (3-6) at DENVER BRONCOS (3-6)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Broncos by 2 1/2. O/U: 39.

The Broncos are going to get back to basics and simplify their game plan. Their defense does have pride, and Cincinnati’s anemic offensive line can cure ills.

Broncos 24, Bengals 20

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-2) vs. OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-5)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Patriots by 7. O/U: 54 1/2.

New England has its defense at least playing better. It’s not going to be great, but it should be enough to put the clamps on the up-and-down Raiders in this Mexico City matchup.

Patriots 31, Raiders 20

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (8-1) at DALLAS MAVERICKS (5-4)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Eagles by 4 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

We saw with the Cowboys’ loss to Atlanta last week just how much it hurts not to have Ezekiel Elliott or a healthy Tyron Smith. Philadelphia is much better than Atlanta.

Eagles 34, Cowboys 17

ATLANTA HAWKS (5-4) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (6-3)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Seahawks by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

Losing cornerback Richard Sherman is devastating to the Seahawks, who are having to patch together a team. Difficult as it is for visitors to win in Seattle, so-so Atlanta can pull it off.

Falcons 27, Seahawks 23

sam.farmer@latimes.com

Follow Sam Farmer on Twitter @LATimesfarmer