Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 1

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Glantz-Culver (O/U = over/under). Farmer’s record last year was 159-96-1 (.624). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last year was 123-124-9 (.498). Team records from 2013.

New Orleans (11-5) at Atlanta (4-12)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Saints 28, Falcons 21

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Saints by 3. O/U: 52.

The Saints are loaded on offense and their defense continues to improve, especially in the secondary. Atlanta is better than last season, when it was expected to be a playoff contender.

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Washington (3-13) at Houston (2-14)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Texans 23, Redskins 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Texans by 3. O/U: 45 1/2.

Which Robert Griffin III will show up at quarterback for Washington? The Texans will take a step forward this season, starting with their defense, under new Coach Bill O’Brien.

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Minnesota (5-10-1) at St. Louis (7-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 20, Rams 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Rams by 4. O/U: 43 1/2.

Quarterback Matt Cassel looked entirely comfortable in Norv Turner’s offense in the preseason. Rams are tough on defense, but losing Sam Bradford for the season (knee injury) hurts.

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Buffalo (6-10) at Chicago (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bears 27, Bills 16

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Bears by 7. O/U: 47.

When the Bears are healthy, they can give anyone problems. Chicago is 6-1 in its last seven home openers. Bills quarterback EJ Manuel is a work in progress.

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Cincinnati (11-5) at Baltimore (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bengals 24, Ravens 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Ravens by 2. O/U: 43.

Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton, 0-3 at Baltimore, needs to prove he can win division games on the road. Defense helps him here. Ravens’ Joe Flacco missed playoffs for first time in six seasons last year.

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Tennessee (7-9) at Kansas City (11-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Chiefs 27, Titans 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Chiefs by 4. O/U: 43 1/2.

Kansas City’s No. 1 offense failed to score a touchdown in the first three exhibition games, but Tennessee’s defense has had growing pains switching to a 3-4 under new Coach Ken Whisenhunt.

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New England (12-4) at Miami (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 20, Dolphins 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Patriots by 5. O/U: 47.

The Patriots had beaten the Dolphins seven consecutive times before losing at Miami last December. New England has won an NFL-best 10 consecutive season openers.

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Oakland (4-12) at New York Jets (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 21, Raiders 20

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Jets by 5 1/2. O/U: 40.

The Raiders’ Derek Carr looks promising, but it’s a lot to ask for a rookie quarterback to win his career opener on the road and across the country … against a strong defense.

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Jacksonville (4-12) at Philadelphia (10-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 34, Jaguars 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Eagles by 10 1/2. O/U: 52 1/2.

The Eagles rolled up huge yards in the preseason, continuing where they left off in Coach Chip Kelly’s rookie season. Too many weapons for the Jaguars, who also are in Year 2 under Coach Gus Bradley.

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Cleveland (4-12) at Pittsburgh (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 20, Browns 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Steelers by 6 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Browns lack playmakers on offense, and have lost an NFL-worst nine consecutive openers. Steelers have gotten younger and faster on defense, but will the offense perform better than it did in preseason?

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San Francisco (12-4) at Dallas (8-8)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

49ers 31, Cowboys 21

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: 49ers by 5. O/U: 51 1/2.

The 49ers have some glaring holes on their once-great defense, but the Cowboys are a complete mess on that side of the ball. Dallas will have to score a lot of points to pull off victories this season.

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Carolina (12-4) at Tampa Bay (4-12)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Buccaneers 20, Panthers 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Buccaneers by 2. O/U: 39.

While the receiver-starved Panthers are primed to take a step backward, the Buccaneers figure to be one of this season’s most improved teams under new Coach Lovie Smith.

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Indianapolis (11-5) at Denver (13-3)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Broncos 35, Colts 24

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Broncos by 7 1/2. O/U: 55 1/2.

Although I have the Colts winning the AFC, Peyton Manning is going to exact his revenge here for last season’s loss at Indianapolis. Suspension of defensive end Robert Mathis hurts the Colts.

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New York Giants (7-9) at Detroit (7-9)

Monday, 4 p.m.

Lions 27, Giants 21

TV: ESPN.

Line: Lions by 5 1/2. O/U: 47.

The Giants don’t look to have a grasp on their new West Coast offense, and they need to score early and often to keep pace with the Lions, who claim to be revitalized under new Coach Jim Caldwell.

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San Diego (9-7) at Arizona (10-6)

Monday, 7:15 p.m.

Cardinals 21, Chargers 20

TV: ESPN.

Line: Cardinals by 3. O/U: 45 1/2.

These evenly matched teams surged at the end of last season, although 10 wins didn’t put Arizona in playoffs. Cardinals get the edge because they’re at home and Chargers are notoriously slow starters.