Racing! Catching up on CHRB business

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get some handicapping tips from Rob Henie.

It’s still more than a week away but the next California Horse Racing Board meeting could be one for the ages. It’s on Nov. 21 at 9:30 a.m., across the street from Del Mar at the Hilton. It has 28 items, no doubt because they canceled the October meeting. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was still going on well past first post at Del Mar. Heck, it could still be going on when the valet crews change shifts at the Hilton.

The way I see it, there are three items that should be very interesting.

The first one, No. 3, is electing a new chairman and vice-chairman. Now, the big news is that Fred Maas is going to leave the board when his term expires on Jan. 1. This story was broken by Bryce Miller of the San Diego Union-Tribune. You can read his column here. (Note: It’s not the first item.)

“Given the time constraints with everything else I’ve got going on, it didn’t make sense,” Maas, a special advisor to the Chargers, told Miller. “I’ll always hope for the best, for the sport and those involved.”

Current vice-chairman Madeline Auerbach was considered the slam-dunk favorite, but then things went south. We (the L.A. Times) reported on a business arrangement she had with Tim Ritvo, chief operating officer of the Stronach Group. It was a case of being business partners with someone you regulated, which was OK’d by the CHRB attorneys. Once it became known, Ritvo sold his interest in a horse named Fravel, named after Craig Fravel, who is now the chief executive of TSG. (We can’t make this up.)

This was followed up by a rebuke from TSG and Gov. Gavin Newsom spoke loudly and clearly about wanting to rid the CHRB of conflicts of interests. Auerbach is one of California’s leading breeders and owners and has done nothing but put the best interests of horses and racing in the state first. But at this time, her candidacy for the chair was done. In fact, don’t be surprised if Auerbach announces she is leaving the board before the end of the year.

So, who is left? There are three members who are not new. Alex Solis, a former jockey, has been a member since 2015 but really isn’t the dominant personality you would need in a chair. There is Dennis Alfieri, who has a big personality and could control the room. And, appointed this year is Gregory Ferraro, who is veterinarian and who better to lead when safety is such a big issue.

There are also two newcomers, who were overruled in their only meeting when the board voted to give Northern California time to figure out its racing dates but denied the same privilege to Southern California. The two votes in allowing Southern California extra time were Oscar Gonzales and Wendy Mitchell. The rest of the board voted status quo with its controversial Southern California dates.

OK, we’re going to make a guess here that the next chairman will be Ferraro and the next vice-chair will be Gonzalez. Whatever happens, it will be a done deal before the meeting even starts. There will not be a floor fight.

The next big item is No. 8 allowing Santa Anita to conduct its meeting starting on Dec. 18 for simulcasting revenue and Dec. 26 for live racing. Normally this would be an easy passage—and still will be but might be long to get there. Based on the amount of public comment tied to Del Mar getting its last license this could go on for a while. In the Del Mar situation, animal rights activists went to the microphone one after another believing that Del Mar should not be granted a license. It was never in doubt.

It could be even longer to get to that point given Santa Anita’s safety record of 37 deaths this year (going back to Dec. 30). Here’s the deal. Santa Anita will get its license. Now, I’m in favor of everyone who wants to speak gets that opportunity. But I was intrigued by a recent meeting of my HOA where the idea of overturning a more than 20-plus year rule that you couldn’t park your pickup overnight in your driveway. This rule goes back to when pickups were not a prestige car. Anyway, the HOA bosses ruled that if you were going to say the same thing as a previous speaker that you were only allowed to stand up and say “I agree with what’s been said.”

Certainly, there are different rules between a government body and an HOA, as there should be. But, after a while and about a dozen recent CHRB meetings, the points being brought up, on both sides, really start to sound the same.

There are also some medication issues being brought up but I think the final flashpoint is No. 19: “Discussion and action by the Board regarding the proposed addition of CHRB Rule 1688. Use of Riding Crop.”

Oh, boy, this could also go on for a while if they don’t have it figured out before the meeting. My best guess is a compromise will have been reached allowing use of the riding crop (i.e. whip) but not higher than the shoulder. It’s like the European standard. This prediction is the one I’m least sure of.

So, stay tuned as the end of the year gets more interesting.

Weekly handicapping lesson

Here’s our weekly contribution from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the seventh race at Del Mar and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

Today’s lesson is from third race at Del Mar.

“This is a maiden special weight at 1 ⅛ miles on the turf. The WCHR has been known for years, for our savvy work with first timers, understanding trainer patterns on the circuit, therefore, able to decipher whether a horse is well meant. In a race such as this one, the entire field has already run, but as we like to point out to members, there’s often a huge difference between one MSW field compared to others. For example, when we look at #5 MUSKOKA, we see a horse who just missed in a listed maiden $50,000 claimer, but in reality, as we pointed out, that $50,000 group was nothing more than a $12,500 bunch. That’s a pretty nice note, wouldn’t you say? While most handicappers are looking at that Oct. 12th at face value, as a $50,000 race, it was really much less. The #7 horse COMMANDING CHIEF exits a race on Oct. 20, a listed MSW, but as we noted this was a $32,000 group, so not terrible, but a far cry from a legitimate MSW bunch. Bottom line? Understanding the stock that makes up a maiden race, is such a sharp angle to have on our side. With this in mind, top selection is CARDIFF CAY (#2), running evenly back in New York for Don Chatlos, but facing better MSW groups than this listed bunch, even adding blinkers today, along with Mike Smith taking over. Even though it appears we’ve got an evenly matched MSW race here, the local contingent have been facing some bad fields, opening the door to a good effort from the New York invader. DA KINE (#1) strings three races together off the long layoff, fresh here late in the year, now given a ton more ground, the turf, and Drayden Van Dyke. Improvement is coming, and if the invader fails to fire for whatever reason, the door would be open for this one to get to the wire first.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 2-1

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 4

“TOP PICK: CARDIFF CAY (#2 3-1 Smith)

“SECOND CHOICE: GHOST STREET (#3 4-1 Garcia)”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Who goofed, I’ve got to know?

Me, of course. In Saturday’s newsletter, where I mentioned Belvoir Bay, I said he won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Certainly, I meant the Turf Sprint. Sorry about that.

Del Mar review

Saturday’s feature, the $75,000 Let It Ride Stakes for 3-year-olds going a mile on the turf was about as close a finish as you could get. The official margin of Bob and Jackie’s win over Proud Pedro was listed as a nose because there isn’t anything designation that is smaller.

Bob and Jackie had been off for a little more than 10 months with a bone problem. He is trained by Richard Baltas and was ridden by Heriberto Figueroa.

Bob and Jackie paid $6.80, $4.00 and $2.80. Ocean Fury was third followed by Dueling and Golden Birthday in the five-horse field.

Out of action since winning the Eddie Logan Stakes late last year, Bob and Jackie returned to competition victoriously, nosing out Proud Pedro to win the featured $77,550 Let It Ride Stakes for three-year-olds Saturday at Del Mar.

Ridden by one-time star apprentice Heriberto Figueroa, Bob and Jackie won a head-bobbing finish by the narrowest of margins over Proud Pedro, who was piloted by Rafael Bejarano. Figueroa also won the third Saturday aboard Twirling Tiger.

Third in the field of five was Ocean Fury, the 8-5 favorite who was three-quarters of a length behind the runner-up and a nose in front of fourth-place Dueling. Golden Birthday, the early pacesetter, faded to fifth and last. Withdrawn from the contest was Carnivorous.

Bob and Jackie, owned by Zayat Stables and trained by Richard Baltas, was timed in 1:34.97 for the mile over the infield grass course. A close second choice at 2-1, the son of Twirling Candy returned $6.60, $4 and $2.60 after scoring his third win in four starts. First money of $46,260 increased the colt’s earnings to $134,500.

Jockey Drayden Van Dyke had a saddle triple, scoring with three two-year-olds, the French-bred filly Guitty in the fourth race, the well-bred debuting colt Authentic in the fifth and finally, in the ninth race, Uncaptured Hero, trained by Baltas.

Del Mar preview

There are nine races on Sunday’s card starting at 12:30 p.m. It’s a pretty decent card with three allowance/optional claimers, two maiden (not claiming) races and a stakes. The feature is the $100,000 Desi Arnaz Stakes for 2-year-old fillies going 6 ½ furlongs. And we all know how Desi liked the fillies.

The favorite, at 4-5, is Leucothea for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Abel Cedillo. Now, I’ve been up close and personal with Leucothea more than most horses. I was in the winner’s circle for the Chandelier Stakes at Santa Anita when the filly dropped jockey Norberto Arroyo, Jr., and went to the outside rail where a bunch of journalists were standing. (Although I was running pretty quickly.) Luckily, no one was seriously hurt including the horse. She came back and won the Anoakia Stakes by 8 ½ lengths. At the risk of even further wearing out an old joke, if she doesn’t win, she’ll “have some splainin’ to do.” She’s two for five this year.

Stellar Sound is the second favorite at 5-2 for Bob Baffert and Drayden Van Dyke. She won her first race by half-a-length but finished fifth in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 7, 8, 7, 8, 7, 8, 7, 6, 10.

Bob Ike’s Dmr pick of the day

FIFTH RACE No. 5 Red Livy (4-1)

Speedy turf sprinter from the Bill McLean barn has rattled off three straight at this five-furlong distance at Golden Gate and there is no reason she can’t ship down and win another. She is 0-for-5 on the Del Mar course but some of those were going long and she’s clearly found her niche going short on grass. She appears too quick for these, so let’s tab her to take another in gate-to-wire fashion.

Saturday’s Result: Awesome Ella (7-1) got a perfect trip and ride, followed the eventual winner into the stretch, fired, second best while well clear of the third horse. We’ll take this kind of effort from a price horse every time.

Bob Ike is a Partner/VP of Horsebills.com (here’s a video) and the proprietor of BobIkePicks.com (full-card picks, 3 Best Plays and betting strategy).

Big races review

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday or late Friday.

Aqueduct (7): $100,000 Pumpkin Pie Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Saguaro Row ($10.40)

Aqueduct (8): $150,000 Artie Schiller Stakes, 3 and up, 1 mile on turf. Winner: Curlin’s Honor ($17.40)

Churchill (6) $102,000 allowance/optional claiming, fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Princess Causeway ($14.60)

Aqueduct (9): $100,000 Atlantic Beach Stakes, 2-year-olds, 6 furlongs on turf. Winner: Jack and Noah ($10.60)

Woodbine (8): $100,000 Frost King Stakes, Ont-bred 2-year-olds, 7 furlongs. Winner: Dotted Line ($100.40)

Churchill (10): Grade 3 $125,000 Commonwealth Turf Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Mr Dumas ($21.40)

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Sunday. All times PDT:

11:05 Woodbine (3): $100,000 La Prevoyante Stakes, Ont-bred fillies 3-years-old, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Sav (8-5)

12:20 Aqueduct (8): $150,000 New York Stallion Series, NY-breds fillies and mares 3 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: Newly Minted (7-2)

12:50 Aqueduct (9): $100,000 Stewart Manor Stakes, fillies 2-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Enola Gay (3-1)

4:03 Del Mar (8): $100,000 Desi Arnaz Stakes, fillies 2-years-old, 6 ½ furlongs. Favorite: Leucothea (4-5)

Ed Burgart’s LA pick of the day

SIXTH RACE: No. 2 Sunbeams Royal Ewin (3-2)

He has improving speed figures in a field where two of the favorites, Ojd One Favorite JJ and Corona Lake, have regressing speed numbers. In addition, Sunbeams Royal Ewin is very quick from the gate and should have clear sailing while drawn inside Hit It Quit It NR, who has been slow from the gate in all four outs.

Final thoughts

Always looking to add more subscribers to this newsletter. Can’t beat the price. If you like it, tell someone. If you don’t like it, then you’re probably not reading this. Either way, send to a friend and just have them click here and sign up. Remember, it’s free, and all we need is your email, nothing more.

Any thoughts, you can reach me at johnacherwa@gmail.com. You can also feed my ego by following me on Twitter @jcherwa

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.