Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 11

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 4-9 (.308); season 89-58-1 (.605). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-5-2 (.546); season 72-73-3 (.497). Green Bay, the New York Giants, Seattle and Tennessee have the week off. Times Pacific.

HOU (6-3) at BAL (7-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 31, Texans 27

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Ravens by 31/2. O/U: 511/2.

Lamar Jackson on one side, and Deshaun Watson on the other? This could be the most entertaining quarterback duel of the decade. The Ravens get the edge on home field and big momentum.

JAC (4-5) at IND (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jaguars 28, Colts 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 431/2.

Nick Foles is back and so is Jacoby Brissett. The key is Leonard Fournette against a Colts run defense that can go wobbly at times. Jaguars hang on in Foles’ triumphant return to the field.

BUF (6-3) at MIA (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bills 23, Dolphins 18

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Bills by 61/2. O/U: 401/2.

All of a sudden, the Dolphins are riding the AFC East’s longest winning streak. Now, Ryan Fitzpatrick has a chance to keep it going against his old team. Luckily for Buffalo, Bills are stifling vs. the pass.

DEN (3-6) at MIN (7-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 27, Broncos 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Vikings by 101/2. O/U: 401/2.

Brandon Allen has his moments, but he’s on the road against a defense that gets after the quarterback. Kirk Cousins is starting to look the way Vikings had hoped. Minnesota keeps it going.

NYJ (2-7) at WAS (1-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 24, Redskins 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Redskins by 2. O/U: 381/2.

The Redskins want to run the ball to take the heat off Dwayne Haskins. That’s going to be hard to do against a defense that held Saquon Barkley to one yard in 13 carries last Sunday.

ATL (2-7) at CAR (5-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 24, Falcons 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Panthers by 41/2. O/U: 491/2.

Green Bay got to young Kyle Allen. Can the suddenly productive Falcons do the same? The Panthers will have to feed Christian McCaffrey early and often. By the way, Carolina can’t stop the run.

DAL (5-4) at DET (3-5-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Cowboys 31, Lions 24

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Off board. O/U: Off board.

The Cowboys will have plenty of opportunities to move the ball, both with Ezekiel Elliott and through the air. Dallas has the No. 1 offense in yards, and the Detroit defense is 30^th in that department.

NO (7-2) at TB (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Saints 27, Buccaneers 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Saints by 6. O/U: 491/2.

Drew Brees was sacked six times against woeful Atlanta last week — not a good sign with Shaq Barrett on deck. As good as the Buccaneers are against the run, they’re lousy versus the pass.

ARI (3-6-1) at SF (8-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

49ers 30, Cardinals 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: 49ers by 10. O/U: 451/2.

The 49ers are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Seattle that finally left them with a blemish on their record. The Cardinals are further along than some expected but not quite there yet.

CIN (0-9) at OAK (5-4)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Raiders 27, Bengals 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Raiders by 101/2. O/U: 49.

Bengals can’t stop the run (or the pass) so this could be a huge game for Raiders rookie Josh Jacobs. Tough place for Bengals rookie Ryan Finley to come in and win, though Oakland has a bad pass D.

NE (8-1) at PHI (5-4)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Eagles 28, Patriots 27

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Patriots by 31/2. O/U: 45.

Back when the Patriots went 16-0, they nearly lost to Baltimore and Philadelphia. Well, they already have lost to the Ravens, and now Philadelphia is in good position to pull off another upset.

CHI (4-5) at LAR (5-4)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

Bears 17, Rams 14

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Rams by 61/2. O/U: 40.

It’s all about the defense — for both teams. The Rams are playing with a patchwork offensive line, and that’s bad news against a Chicago front that can be scary. The Bears can’t do much on offense.

KC (6-4) vs. LAC (4-6)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Chiefs 28, Chargers 24

TV: ESPN.

Line: Chiefs by 31/2. O/U: 52.

The Chargers don’t have that same ability to close they had last season. They can move the ball on the ground, and keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. Still, the Chiefs are a better team.