Racing! Thoughts about the Eclipse Awards process

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get a handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

Let’s get right to it with our weekly contribution by Ron Flatter of the Vegas Stats and Information Network. He’s always got a lot on his mind and no shortage of opinions. So, Ron, what are you thinking about today?

“Lacking a Grade 1 race this weekend, the mind wanders. Thankfully, the upcoming Eclipse Awards provide a destination.

“Since the voting closed and finalists were determined last week, claims of snubs have already been declared. By time the winners are revealed in less than two weeks at Gulfstream Park there will have been the usual sanctimonious calls to strip certain voters of their privileges, particularly those who show confounding support of obscure candidates.

“Putting those aside, there is a section of the Eclipse process that is screaming for improvement. That is the balloting for human categories.

“To shed some light on how this Spam is made, 254 voters from racetrack offices and the media (myself included) received ballots last month. Along with them came a special, 32-page edition of the Daily Racing Form. Most of it was devoted to 2019 past performances of the more than 130 horses that editors suggested for consideration in 11 divisions. It is an understatement to point out that those 22 pages are annually invaluable.

“The big flaw comes, though, in the five pages near the back devoted to statistics for trainers, jockeys, apprentice jockeys, owners and breeders. Each of those categories is broken into four sets of standings based on earnings, wins, Grade 1 wins and graded-stakes wins. And that is it.

“Where horses’ records read like a diary of the year past, the human statistics are limited to snapshots that may be misleading. For voters who do their homework and take a deeper dive beneath the numerical surface, these lists are helpful first steps. But what about for those who quickly gloss over the tables and vote based on, say, just earnings or some recipe combining money and graded victories?

“Take the breeders category. One finalist – Calumet Farm – led 2019 in earnings and graded wins. But how many voters dug deeper to learn that Brad Kelley’s operation had only one Grade 1 winner – Mongolian Groom?

“Meanwhile, the Woodford Thoroughbreds operation, which got my vote but failed to make the finals, was responsible for likely older female champion Midnight Bisou and year-end Kentucky Derby futures favorite Independence Hall.

“Often voters have used the coattails of their top choice for Horse of the Year and rewarded the connections with votes in their respective categories. That was clearly the case for 2015, when American Pharoah led Bob Baffert to be named trainer of the year and Zayat Stables the top owner and breeder. But the Triple Crown did not help jockey Víctor Espinoza. He lost to Javier Castellano, whose name was conspicuous by being at the top of the standings for earnings and victories.

“This is not to say that one is automatically more deserving of votes than another in any of these examples. It does suggest, though, that voters lacking a depth of information – or the time to research it – are casting ballots like a horseplayer who quick-’caps the next race.

“The obvious solution is to spoon-feed more data to voters, perhaps something like Equibase provides on its website. Type in the name of an owner, trainer or jockey, and there is a tab labeled “Top Horses” that may be parsed to any given year. That annually proves helpful in filling the information void.

“This seems an easy fix to one of the biggest flaws in the Eclipse process. So, too, would allowing voters more than just 35 hours of the new year to consider all that happened in the 365 days beforehand. (Yes, the deadline to cast ballots was Jan. 2 at 11 a.m. PST.)

“Any other suggestions to improve the awards should be welcome. Something tells me that after the ceremony Jan. 23, there will be no shortage of them.”

Ron Flatter is a host and reporter who covers horse racing for the Vegas Stats & Information Network, which is available at SiriusXM 201 and to subscribers at VSiN.com. His Ron Flatter Racing Pod this week includes Hall of Fame jockey Javier Castellano and longtime Southern California News Group sports writer Art Wilson. The RFRP is also available via Apple, Google, Spotify, Stitcher and is sponsored by Xpressbet.

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the seventh race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a maiden special weight at 5 ½ furlongs on the turf. When young runners are sent this short, we can often try and decipher the intentions. For example, NU PI LAMBDA for Carla Gaines, has run three times, all going short at both Del Mar and Santa Anita. In all outings, she showed sharp early speed before being caught late, especially in her first two efforts, telling us the scope to her game likely isn’t much, not being sent long, not even being sent six furlongs, only short turf routes. Despite the speed she’s shown, we have a hard time backing a runner where it appears there’s not much to her game except running to the front and simply trying to last. A runner such as RAKASSAH, who’s making her U.S. debut here today, is bred to run super long. So, it’s surprising she sprinted in three straight races in England, and we’ll give the race here Saturday, waiting for two turns next time out for Phil D’Amato. MAJESTIC GIGI has shown little in each of her last two main track starts, and though still not eligible to be bought in a claimer, the connections are now trying her on the turf, hoping she’ll find something she’s yet to show, such as a more tenacious effort the final ⅛. In the end, we’re looking at fresh faces, horses who’ve been working forwardly, and our top selection is KUSTOM FOR KARL (8). This is a nice pattern for Jeff Mullins, much quicker than normally seen from Jeff, thus the placement going ⅝ on the turf, and as we’ve mentioned often, sending a horse five furlongs on the turf is about the same as preparing ‘em to go four furlongs on the main track. It’s not the most taxing preparation to secure a good effort, which is precisely why these short turf races are often won by first timers and horses off layoffs. Notice as well the slow recent work? This is a great sign, telling us they needed nothing more from her while awaiting this debut start. MUNN SHE’S PRETTY (5) debuts for Jonathon Wong, with a slew of slower drills in tap, which is what we typically see from this barn, but with this one, notice the quick recent drill? Also, a great sign, telling us they laid out the foundation in previous months, with a sharp gate drill right before the race, looking for a recent sharpness right before her first try.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 8-5-11

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 2,7,12

“Positive Notes:

“11 She’s So Special - Pretty tough to not include the “regimen” of Peter Miller here, teaming with Joel Rosario.

“First Timers:

“1 Sweet Devil - Drills for Michael McCarthy are nice, while Abel Cedillo is so good with settling his mounts, dangerous from all points on the track.

“3 Wine At Sunset - She’s prepping for longer here for Eric Kruljac.

“Morning Line Underlays / Overlays:

“8 Kustom For Karl - Morning Line 10-1 / WCHR Line 6-1

“TOP PICK: KUSTOM FOR KARL (#8 10-1 Rispoli) Debut

$ Selected Win Wager

“SECOND CHOICE: MUNN SHE’S PRETTY (#5 10-1 Velez) Debut

$ Selected Win Wager”

^{The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at http://www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.}

Santa Anita review

Before we get to Friday’s feature, it seems my thoughts on your-guess-is-as-good-as-mine first posts at Santa Anita struck a chord with several readers. I’m not going to go over the same stuff, but we all like consistency and it’s OK if the races end, maybe, a half-hour before dusk some days. Aidan Butler, the AEDOCRFTSG (that’s acting executive director of California racing for The Stronach Group and we’re not even going to mention Chief Strategy Officer), does read the newsletter so maybe he’ll take note of this.

OK, on to the biggest purse race on Friday’s card, an allowance for older horses going 6 ½ furlongs. It wasn’t much of a race as McKale went gate to wire and won by three-quarters of a length. Jockey Drayden Van Dyke had the race in control and didn’t push the horse deep in the stretch.

“He ran fast, but he’d been working really well,” Bob Baffert, winning trainer, told Mike Willman of Santa Anita. “We gave him some time [off] and he came back good. He needed a little freshening.”

Baffert didn’t know about McKale’s next start. He paid $5.00, $3.60 and $2.40. Manhattan UP finished second followed by Royal Trump, Pepe Tono, Seven Scents and Olseau de Guerre.

Santa Anita preview

It’s a nine-race card starting at, (wait, let me guess, it’s nine races, so it must be 12:30 p.m.) yes, 12:30 p.m. Nailed it. It’s a pretty good card with two graded stakes. Four of the races are on the turf and with the rail at zero feet, it means big fields. Except in the graded stakes, of course.

Let’s look at the stakes.

Grade 3 $100,000 Las Cienegas Stakes: This race is for older fillies and mares going 5 ½ furlongs on the turf, which means it would normally be down the hill. The favorite, at 6-5, is Jolie Olimpica for trainer Richard Mandella and jockey Mike Smith. This one is a challenge for handicappers. This is her first U.S. start after three wins in three races in Brazil. She won by 6 lengths, 3 ¼ and 4 ¼. The trainer-jockey combination certainly mitigates some of the mystery.

Storm the Hill, at 9-5, is the second choice for Phil D’Amato and Flavien Prat. Her last nine races have been graded stakes and two of them were Garde 3 wins. Post is around 1:30 p.m.

Grade 3 $200,000 La Canada Stakes: This race used to be a Grade 2, but got downgraded last year, but year upped the purse to $200,000 but it’s still a Grade 3. It’s for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles. The very talented Spiced Perfection is the 5-2 favorite for Peter Miller and Joel Rosario. She has won nine-of-20 lifetime and is coming off a Grade 3 win at Aqueduct. She has only run one of her last five races in Southern California. She has won more than $1.2 million.

Queen Bee to You is the 3-1 second choice for Andrew Lerner and Ruben Fuentes. She has won seen of 32 races but has an amazing 11 seconds. She has won her last two races, the Bayakoa at Los Alamitos and the Betty Grable at Del Mar. Post is around 4:05 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order, 5, 8, 5, 9, 8, 9, 12, 8, 12.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA picks of the day

RACE TWO: No. 6 Kristi’s Tiger (12-1)

Kristi’s Tiger won the debut Dec. 6 under this same jockey, Brice Blanc, who is winning 40% for trainer Thomas Bell. The ROI is huge for this duo (when they race, they return a big profit) and Bell also owns the horse. For small stables this is a big positive indicator for me. They also race the horse protected today. She won easily from off the pace last out at five and a half furlongs so Saturday’s distance should pose no issues. We are getting a great value at 12-1.

Friday’s result: She’s a Dime went to the lead but caught in a duel, lost ground on the turn and finished last.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Saturday. All times PST.

12:34 Gulfstream (8): $150,000 Marshua’s River Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles on turf. Favorite: Andina Del Sur (2-1)

12:55 Aqueduct (8): $100,000 Say Florida Sandy Stakes, NY-breds 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Favorite: My Boy Tate (5-2)

1:32 Santa Anita (3): Grade 3 $100,000 Las Cienegas Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 5 ½ furlongs on turf. Favorite: Jolie Olimpica (6-5)

1:38 Gulfstream (10): Grade 3 $100,000 Tropical Turf, 4 and up, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: A Thread of Blue (5-2)

4:07 Santa Anita (8): Grade 3 $200,000 La Canada Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1 1/16 miles. Favorite: Spiced Perfection (5-2)

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

RACE SIX: No. 1 Last Tia (7-2)

She is a nice-sized runner who worked well (B-/prep) prior to a “much better than looked” third-place finish in a quality debut 36 nights ago. In that effort, this filly got a bit rambunctious prior to breaking a bit slow and being bumped on both sides to lose over a length and a half right from the gate opening. After the tough start, this runner put forth a big run past the gap to finish third while under a light hold nearing the wire. We’ll push this entrant steadily at a medium price to be close up early and right there at the wire.

Final thought

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And now the stars of the show, Friday’s results and Saturday’s entries.