Giants Over the Broncos in Super Bowl Is a Fact Set in Figures

Got it all figured out?

Read every story, listened to every expert, played every hunch and come to some unavoidable conclusions as to who is going to win Super Bowl XXI on Sunday between Denver and New York and by how much?

Allow me to confuse you.

Or rather, allow Bud Goode to confuse you, as he has me.

Goode is a 64-year-old computer, 5-7, weighing 150 pounds, with thinning hair.

Actually Goode, who lives in Studio City, is not really a computer. He just sounds like one. When he starts spouting figures, you half expect a thin stream of tape to clatter from his mouth, filled with figures.

But Goode is hardly a crackpot. Trained in the statistical measurement of human behavior, he soon focused in on one of the major loves of his life--football.

And he became good at it. Good enough, at one point, to be hired by 16 of the 28 NFL teams as a statistical analyst to spot trends and help formulate strategy.

But Goode gradually cut back. It wasn’t that he didn’t love the work. It’s just that with so many clubs, he started to feel like “I was playing chess against myself on Sundays.”

He works for six teams now, one of them being the New York Giants. That certainly qualifies him to take a stab at what’s going to happen in Pasadena.

So after you’ve warmed up the TV and planted yourself as one of the millions of couch potatoes who’ll be sprouting all across the country for the annual observance of Super Sunday, here are some things to watch for, courtesy of Goode. This Bud’s for you.

First of all, forget all those experts who have made New York’s Giants the surest thing since New York’s former governor, Thomas Dewey, was conceded the White House in 1948.

“There are two reasons the Giants are such favorites,” Goode said. “First of all, New York has such avid fans and they bet so much money, it has a real impact. Whenever you have a big city like this involved, it moves away from what is realistic.

“Secondly, there is what I call the halo effect. When a team wins big one week, it affects the next week.”

So what should we expect?

Goode has 19 key categories he uses to sum up a game. To go over each one would be cruel and unusual punishment akin to being locked in a jail cell with Ross Porter.

Instead, we’ll focus on Goode’s top three categories. They all revolve around the rush: first downs gained on the ground, total rushing plays and total rushing yardage.

“The stat to watch is first downs rushing,” Goode said. “The league average is seven per game. Denver averaged 5.9 this season, which was 24th in the league. That’s weak. The Giants gave up just 4.9, second in the league to the Chicago Bears’ 4.5. If both teams play to statistical form, the Broncos might not make four first downs rushing. They might not make any.

“Now the Giant offense averages 7.9 first downs rushing per game. The Bronco defense allows 5.8. So it’s not that easy to run on Denver.”

The Broncos averaged 28.4 rushes per game and 104.9 yards. Both figures were 20th in the NFL. The New York defense allowed 21.9 rushes and 80.2 yards, both league-leading figures.

When he adds in all his rushing variables, Goode gives the Giants a 5.4-point advantage on the ground.

In the Goode game plan, the air is a perilous route to travel. He figures interceptions are worth five points and sacks three.

“We want John Elway in the air,” Goode said. “He averages one interception per game. That’s down from 1.3 last year. If you throw two interceptions in a game, four out of five times, you’re going to lose.”

So what does it all compute to? What’s the bottom line on the statistical tape that seems to spew out of Goode?

Giants the better team by four.

But what happens if Elway should get knocked out of the game in the first quarter by that vicious New York defense, certainly not a totally unlikely scenario. Just ask Joe Montana. With different personnel, what happens to all those season-long trends and stats?

Said Goode: “You can throw them all out the window.”