College Basketball / Robyn Norwood : Professor Hopes Arizona’s Olson Doesn’t Follow His Theory

While Arizona presses on in its quest for the National Collegiate Athletic Assn. basketball championship, one of the university’s sociologists in Tucson is at work on a sports book that might seem at odds with the Wildcats’ goal.

The working title: “Why Great Coaches Will Lose Championship Games.”

Albert Bergesen, a professor of sociology at the school, bases his theory on observations of the National Football League, but is convinced that it applies to most sports.

“One of the greatest examples is Don Shula, who has coached in six Super Bowls but lost four,” Bergesen said. “How could it be that this great coach seems to have a losing record?”

Bergesen said he has compared the winning percentages of numerous coaches to their championship-game winning percentages, and found that--in many cases--the better the coach’s record, the worse he does in championship games.

His theory is that great coaches get teams to championship games that wouldn’t have made it on ability alone. But once there, their shortcomings are exposed by the superiority of the other team.

“In a way, it’s one of the great ironies of winning,” Bergesen said. “The better you are, it actually sets you up to lose in the Super Bowl, the World Series, whatever. . . . Being a great coach means, on average, that you will get teams further along than their ability might otherwise warrant. But in championship games, very simple physical differences show through. . . . A lesser coach would only be there if he had a great team. So, ironically, many lesser coaches have better records in the big games.”

But to the matter at hand.

Does he think Arizona has a great coach?

“I would say Lute Olson is a great coach.”

Then, by his theory, are the Wildcat chances poor?

“Go Cats,” Bergesen said. “I’m a homer. . . . A great coach and great talent. That’s unbeatable.”

And you don’t have to be a professor of sociology to know that.

John Wooden, a coach who didn’t have much difficulty winning the big games, has a few theories of his own.

“Plenty of coaches don’t win with ability, but no one wins without it,” Wooden said. “Of course, it’s impossible to prove, it’s such a subjective type of thing.”

Wooden on the particular challenges of coaching in the tournament:

“Experience is important. I had problems in my early years when we got into the tournament. I had good teams that won the conference but got knocked out early, in the first or second round of the tournament.

“As time went by, I learned from this. I worked them too hard. Once we got there, I thought, ‘Now I’ll really work them.’ But I think I overworked them.

“Also I think I actually felt that I had to add a few more things. Instead of being content with the things that got us there, I tried something else. I think those are mistakes I made. Maybe there were others.

“As I’ve observed coaches, they sometimes want it so much themselves, they hurt their chance of getting it.”

Add Wooden: Although he doesn’t select the recipient of the Los Angeles Athletic Club’s John R. Wooden Award, which honors the college basketball player of the year as selected by a panel of 1,000 sports journalists, Wooden does have strong opinions as to what sort of player should win.

Although freshman Mark Macon of Temple, sophomore J.R. Reid of North Carolina and two juniors, Sean Elliott of Arizona and Danny Ferry of Duke, are among the 11 candidates, Wooden said he would prefer that a graduating senior win the award.

Because the winner’s name is not announced until after the NCAA final, a player whose team goes far in the tournament would seem to have an advantage.

“I think it should be for over the year as a whole, not just that part of the season,” Wooden said. “I believe the most outstanding player (sometimes) might have been on a team that got eliminated early, and they should get the consideration.”

Most important, Wooden says, is that the player be a good student. Since last year, candidates have been required to have a minimum 2.0 grade-point average.

Danny Manning of Kansas, Gary Grant of Michigan, Hersey Hawkins of Bradley, Troy Lewis of Purdue, David Rivers of Notre Dame, Rony Seikaly of Syracuse and Charles Smith of Pittsburgh are the other finalists. The winner of the 1988 Wooden Award will be announced April 6, two days after the NCAA final.

New Mexico fans apparently were not impressed with the Lobos’ National Invitation Tournament bid.

Lobo fans usually pack University Arena--better-known as the Pit, one of the country’s difficult arenas for opponents--but only 7,241 fans turned out for the Lobos’ 86-75 first-round NIT victory over Pepperdine last Thursday.

It was the smallest crowd in the 22-year history of the Pit.

New Mexico had an up-and-down season, with the highlight a victory over then top-ranked Arizona that drew a standing-room-only crowd of 18,100.

How many schools have teams left in both the men’s and women’s versions of the NCAA tournament?

Just one, Iowa.

Coincidentally, the Hawkeye teams are both playing in the West Regional, the women at Long Beach and the men at Seattle.

Kentucky’s Rex Chapman missed more free throws in the first half of the Wildcats’ second-round game against Maryland than in any game all season.

Chapman, an 82.4% free-throw shooter during the regular season, made just 1 of 6 in the first half. He had not missed more than two in a game all year.

He also made only one of six from the field in the first half. But after apologizing to his teammates at halftime for his play--he called it “his worst since junior high school”--Chapman finished with 23 points and helped lead Kentucky to victory. And he was perfect from the line in the second half--one for one.

NCAA fastball: After Villanova defeated Arkansas in a first-round game of the Southeast Regional, Villanova Coach Rollie Massimino referred to Arkansas Coach Nolan Richardson as Nolan Ryan.