AMERICAN LEAGUE : A’s and Yankees Out to Prove That Talk Isn’t Cheap

We bring you this 1988 American League preview despite the fact that Don Mattingly and Tony LaRussa have already deemed it unnecessary.

Mattingly, you’ll recall, welcomed the news of his team’s winter acquisition of free-agent slugger Jack Clark with a flat-out prediction that the New York Yankees will win the AL East. Guaranteed. It’s over. Bring on the Mets already.

In the other division, LaRussa and the Oakland Athletics also completed a fancy round of off-season shopping. Dave Parker and his 97-RBI bat were imported from Cincinnati. Bob Welch, graded the National League’s best pitcher in 1987 by an Inside Sports statistical study, was recruited from the Dodgers. Also added were second baseman Glenn Hubbard, catcher Ron Hassey, outfielder Dave Henderson, left-handed reliever Matt Young and designated hitter Don Baylor, who has only played on the last two AL pennant winners.

By spring training, LaRussa was talking title. “One hundred wins” was his preseason assessment. It’s even on his phone answering machine. “We’re going for 100 wins” is what you hear if you want to leave a message at the home of the A’s manager.

Since no AL West club has won 100 games since the Kansas City Royals in 1977--the Minnesota Twins needed just 85 wins to win the division last year--we assume LaRussa is making plans for a busy October.

And, we assume Mattingly and LaRussa are telling it like it is. They are both men of principle, men of their word. Who are we to say they’re bluffing--or at least painting over the cracks and turning back the odometer?

Yes, the Yankees and the A’s are ready to roll into the playoffs. If neither lineup is not quite a match for Murderer’s Row, both are capable of doing considerable damage.

Once Clark returns from an early spring leg injury, he’ll add his 35-home run potential to a batting order already consisting of Mattingly (30 homers, 115 runs batted in), Dave Winfield (27 homers, 97 RBIs), Mike Pagliarulo (32 homers, 87 RBIs), Rickey Henderson (.291), Willie Randolph (.305) and rookie flash Roberto Kelly. They should be bombing in the Bronx once again.

The A’s can counter with Mark McGwire, the all-time rookie home run record-holder with 49 last season; Jose Canseco, who has 69 home runs after two full big league seasons; Parker, who has averaged 30 home runs and 113 RBIs since 1985; Terry Steinbach, who homered 16 times in just 391 at-bats last season; Carney Lansford, coming off a 19-home run, 79-RBI season; and Baylor, the veteran designated hitter.

Both teams, however, have their flaws.

With the Yankees, it’s pitching. If healthy, a rotation of Rick Rhoden, Richard Dotson, John Candelaria, rookie Al Leiter and either Ron Guidry or Tommy John should be enough to get by. But Rhoden turns 35 in May, Guidry turns 38 in August, Candelaria is 34 . . . and that makes them babies compared to the 44-year-old John. Old pitchers can fall apart fast.

The A’s have good pitching--and young pitching--with Welch joining 20-game winner Dave Stewart and promising Curt Young in the rotation. The A’s problem is defense, especially up the middle and, most glaringly, in the outfield. A rookie, Walt Weiss, will start at shortstop and a second-year player, Steinbach, will start at catcher. And any outfield combining Parker and Canseco would have trouble with a lively round of fungo-hitting.

For those reasons, neither the Yankees nor the A’s will run away with their respective division titles, despite the abundance of big hitters. Instead, look for a couple of old-fashioned pennant races between the Yankees and the Boston Red Sox in the East, the A’s and the Kansas City Royals in the West.

Boston finally has a bullpen stopper in Lee Smith, and the hope now is that he’ll become to the Red Sox what Jeff Reardon was to the Twins in 1987. Maybe so, although 85 wins in the East could get your manager fired. And the Royals finally have a shortstop, former Cincinnati Red Kurt Stillwell, the first real one to appear in Kansas City since, well, little Freddie Patek.

A closer look at the road to the Final Two in the American League:

WEST

1. OAKLAND--The A’s are the hammer-and-tong boys of the American League.

The hammer is what can fall, anywhere and at any time, when the A’s are at bat. Imagine yourself an American League pitcher. Imagine yourself staring into a gauntlet of Lansford, McGwire, Canseco, Parker, Baylor and Steinbach.

Imagine the beautiful flight of the baseball, sailing majestically into the night and out of the ballpark.

The tongs come into play whenever the A’s outfielders are required to play defense. What an argument for two-platoon baseball--Parker debuting in left, Canseco moving over to right and (wince) Luis Polonia, possibly, in center. Polonia, a man born to DH, was best described last season by a teammate who provided a scouting report in the form of a Jeopardy question. Q: Catch - 22. A: What do you get when you hit 100 fly balls to Luis Polonia?

LaRussa is not a timid man, but the prospect of enduring such outfield play, totally uncontaminated by defensive skill, was enough for him to consider sandwiching no-hit, good-field Stan Javier between Parker and Canseco. Javier can run--and, most assuredly, will. It is up to the Oakland trainers to supply him with enough salt tablets.

Any way you look at it, the A’s are going to be great fun in ’88. No doubt, there will be runs aplenty. But Oakland has enough pitching to ensure the A’s of having the most runs at least 90 times this season.

2. KANSAS CITY--Here’s another scenario: The A’s keep dropping the ball, McGwire slumps to say, 39 home runs, and the pitching-rich Royals forge into the lead in early September. Bret Saberhagen wins 20 games, George Brett bats .330, Danny Tartabull drives in 115 runs. Bo Jackson is headed for the playoffs--and, with a smidgen of luck, the World Series, too. End sweeps will have to be put on hold until November.

What, then, will Al Davis do? Send Howie Long over to rough up Kevin Seitzer? Threaten Manager John Wathan? Try to sneak Rusty Hilger into the Kansas City rotation?

Yes, the Royals could make life miserable for the Raiders this year, potentially keeping Jackson tied up through Halloween. They certainly have the pitching to reach postseason play--Saberhagen, Charlie Leibrandt, Floyd Bannister and Mark Gubicza, with Ted Power in the bullpen. And, unlike Oakland, the Royals have the defense.

It could come down to hitting. And that’s where Bo comes in. If Jackson’s hard-hitting spring was no mirage, he and Tartabull could give Kansas City two 30-home run, 100-RBI threats in the outfield. Factor in Brett, Seitzer, Willie Wilson, Frank White and new shortstop Kurt Stillwell and the Royals may have enough offense to decide two division races this year.

The AL West. And the American Football Conference West.

3. MINNESOTA--So, what’s new in the Twin Cities?

Oh, nothing much. The baseball team won the World Series. Had a nice parade in October, too. Other than that, things haven’t changed.

And that’s precisely the problem facing the Twins, baseball’s most unlikely champions since the ’69 Mets. Andy MacPhail, the genius GM of 1987, has inexplicably stood pat with a team that won only 85 regular-season games and was outscored, 806 to 786. Les Straker, Joe Niekro and Steve Carlton are still in the rotation. Tim Laudner is still the catcher. Minnesota’s only off-season transaction of note was the departure of free-agent designated hitter Don Baylor to Oakland.

Oh, MacPhail did invite pitchers Charlie Lea and Tippy Martinez to spring camp. Lea has won one game since 1984; Martinez has pitched 16 innings since 1985. All the stuff title defenses are made of.

Extraordinary circumstances couched the Twins’ rise to the championship. The rest of the AL West collapsed. The grueling AL East race left the Detroit Tigers drained in the playoffs. The St. Louis Cardinals was battered entering the World Series. And the American League had the home-field advantage, meaning Minnesota could play four times in the friendly neighborhood Metrodome.

The same team, in a vastly improved division, won’t be able to do the same again.

4. ANGELS--Reasons why Gene Mauch wanted to manage one more season:

--Wally Joyner. The young infield of Joyner, Mark McLemore, Jack Howell and Dick Schofield, which could be the division’s best. Devon White. Mike Witt.

Reasons why Mauch is better off retired:

--The starting pitching behind Witt; check out the spring earned-run averages of Dan Petry (9.50), Chuck Finley (8.00), Kirk McCaskill (5.04) and Willie Fraser (4.97). The bullpen of Donnie Moore (bone spur in elbow), Greg Minton (frayed ligament in elbow) and DeWayne Buice (7.53 spring ERA). Johnny Ray in left field.

No way Mauch could have stayed off the cigarettes managing this group.

5. TEXAS--The combination of the new balk rule and the old Ranger catchers should make each one of Charlie Hough’s 1988 starts a Hitchcockian tale of suspense.

Already this spring, Hough has been cited for nine balks-- in one game. And last year, one Texas catcher (Geno Petralli) set a record for 35 passed balls while the other (Mike Stanley) threw out only 5 of 79 base stealers.

Strategy against Hough: Take a walk . . . and take your chances.

Problem is, Hough is the Rangers’ most reliable pitcher. At age 39, he won 18 games and became the oldest pitcher ever to lead the AL in innings (285). Behind him are Jose Guzman (14-14, 4.97), Bobby Witt (8-10, 4.91) and Edwin Correa (3-5, 7.59), who may be out for the season if he has to undergo surgery on his right shoulder.

The Rangers have two of the game’s brightest young hitters in Ruben Sierra and Pete Incaviglia, plus proven power from Larry Parrish and Pete O’Brien, but to contend, Texas needs more than a lone star pitching staff.

6. SEATTLE--Glenn Wilson for Phil Bradley? Ken Dixon for Mike Morgan? Steve Trout for Lee Guetterman?

There’s a lot of wheel-spinning going on up in Seattle.

What the Mariners’ busy winter actually garnered them was an outfielder (Wilson) whose RBI totals have plunged from 102 to 84 to 54; a right-handed pitcher (Dixon) who gave up more home runs (31) than walks (27) last year and has already been released; and a left-handed pitcher (Trout) who put 88 runners on base in just 46.1 innings with the Yankees.

But, at least they didn’t have to give up a Danny Tartabull this time.

Manager Dick Williams is saying this will be his last season. After directing pennant winners in Boston, Oakland and San Diego, he had wanted to leave his mark in the Not-So-Great Northwest, too.

The Mariners will be satisfied if that mark in 1988 is .500, which would be a franchise first.

7. CHICAGO WHITE SOX--White Sox General Manager Larry Himes spent two years in Mike Port’s Angel front office, where he apparently learned a few things about dumping contracts and slashing payrolls. Last winter, Himes took his three best starting pitchers and jettisoned them around the major leagues--Floyd Bannister to Kansas City, Richard Dotson to the Yankees and Jose DeLeon to St. Louis.

Combined, that trio pitched 646 innings and won 38 games last season. They also earned $2,240,000.

So, the rich have been replaced by the not very famous in Chicago. Ricky Horton will be the White Sox’s opening day starter. Following him in the rotation will be Dave LaPoint, Jack McDowell, Melido Perez and--yes, believe it, it’s true--Jerry (Find Me a Home) Reuss.

That probably says all one really needs to know about the 1988 White Sox.

EAST

1. NEW YORK YANKEES--First, there’s the Billy factor.

Every time Billy Martin takes over as a manager of some floundering baseball team, that team, for one season, shows dramatic improvement. Martin’s Oakland A’s won 29 more games in 1980 than ’79. His Texas Rangers won 27 more games in 1974 than ’73. And how about these three earlier stints with the Yankees--14 more wins in 1976, 12 more wins in 1983 and 10 more wins in 1985?

Eleven more wins in 1988 will get New York to an even 100.

Other than an all-out pitching collapse, the only thing that can derail the Yankees in the East are--you guessed it--the Yankees. And just before the season opener, the calm that pervaded training camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., was officially broken by Dave Winfield--first by his inflammatory new book, and then by the club’s cursory attempts to trade him. So far, the Winfield trade rumors have involved Baltimore’s Fred Lynn, Houston’s Kevin Bass and the Angels’ Johnny Ray, so they’re nothing to take seriously yet.

Yes, turmoil has reared its head in the Yankees’ clubhouse. Just in time, too. The season starts Monday.

2. BOSTON--The Chicago Cubs, leaders in the art of fan disappointment, have helped set up their American League soulmates, the Red Sox, for another round of taunting the Fenway faithful.

Over the winter, the Cubs sent relief ace Lee Smith to Boston for a box lunch and a couple of subway tokens--and the long-suffering Red Sox fans, still wary after ‘86, went delirious once again. Dreams of a rematch this October with the Mets, without Bill Buckner at first, are dancing in heads all across New England.

And there is some merit to the argument that the ’88 Sox are superior to the ’86 Almosts. A combination of Ellis Burks, when he returns from the disabled list, and Brady Anderson in center sure beats the ’86 platoon of Tony Armas and Dave Henderson. Mike Greenwell hit .328 last season. There are also Todd Benzinger (43 RBIs in 73 games) and Sam Horn (14 homers in 46 games). Roger Clemens is a two-time Cy Young Award winner. And, of course, there’s Smith.

But the starting pitching depth behind Clemens and Bruce Hurst is problematic, at best. What can anyone rightly expect from the combustible Dennis (Oil Can) Boyd? Is Jeff Sellers finally ready? Who’s the fifth starter?

And, then, there’s The Curse, which has tweaked Red Sox noses since 1918. There’s always The Curse.

3. TORONTO--Gene Mauch was forever haunted, and hounded, by the Philadelphia Phillies’ collapse of 1964. Will Jimy Williams be tormented the same way by the ghost of ‘87?

If Toronto’s pratfall during the final week of last season wasn’t the biggest choke in baseball history, it was certainly the most tortuous. The Blue Jays had a 4 1/2-game lead with 7 to play. Then, they lost all seven games--each by one run.

What is it with these Canadian baseball teams? The Andre Dawson-Gary Carter-Steve Rogers Expos of the early 1980s never won the National League pennant, even though Montreal owned the best talent for several years. Now, the Blue Jays are risking becoming a similar footnote--the finest team never to win the American League title.

Toronto still has the players, although the best, George Bell, is seething about the club’s request that he move to DH. That remains a situation that could explode in the Blue Jays’ faces any minute. And Lloyd Moseby had to be appeased with a new $1.1-million contract before he would agree to shift from center to left.

Apparently, the incentive of reaching the World Series isn’t enough for these Jays. Before the 1987 meltdown, Toronto also blew a three-games-to-one lead to Kansas City in the 1985 playoffs. What we have here is a trend.

4. MILWAUKEE--Streaking, that fad of the early 1970s, finally caught on last year in Milwaukee, where news sometimes travels slowly. The Brewers’ streaking, however, did not entail peeling off clothes, but, rather, reeling off wins . . . and losses . . . and Paul Molitor base hits.

In 1987, Milwaukee had a baseball team that couldn’t make up its mind. Thirteen straight victories in April. Twelve straight defeats in May. Molitor hit safely in 39 straight games. Dan Plesac saved 22 games before Aug. 18--and only one thereafter.

Through it all, the Brewers put together 91 victories, which would have blown away Minnesota if Milwaukee played in the other division. Big things are expected from the Brewers in ‘88, and rightly so. The young pitchers are a year wiser, Jim Gantner is healthy again and heavyweight Joey Meyer (29 homers in 296 Denver at-bats) is ready to step in at DH. But again, the division is the problem.

Ninety wins only gets you fourth place in the AL East.

5. DETROIT--Let’s see. During the off-season, the Tigers, defending champions of baseball’s best division, lost an outfielder, Kirk Gibson, and gained an outfielder, Gary Pettis.

Both guys struck out a lot--Gibson 117 times, Pettis 124. And both stole about the same number of bases--Gibson 26, Pettis 24.

Oh, but there is one area of disparity: Gibson out-hit Pettis, .277 to .208; out-homered him, 24 to 1; and out-RBIed him, 79 to 17. Other than that, a trade-off.

The Tigers also picked up an OK third baseman, Ray Knight, but still have that dreaded bullpen, headed by Willie Hernandez, who has proven more adept at cooling off sportswriters than late-inning rallies in recent months. And is Doyle Alexander ever going to go 9-0 again? And what about catcher Matt Nokes’ throwing arm, uncovered as a major Detroit weakness down the stretch last year?

Sparky Anderson, no doubt, will again spread around the fertilizer, but this time, the seeds of contention appear to be scarce in Detroit.

6. CLEVELAND--No, that wasn’t an Arena Football tryout they were holding in Tucson last month. That was Doc Edwards’ Great American Pitching Search, where 46 men of all shapes and sizes and ERAs were invited to come on down and try to make it as a Cleveland Indian.

Yes, the pitching situation in Cleveland has gotten that bad.

Last spring, the Indians were Sports Illustrated cover boys, heralded as The Best (cough, cough) Team in the American League. A staff ERA of 5.28 helped turn that issue into a collector’s item, something to be treasured alongside 1986 Angel World Series tickets.

With the worst pitching seen around the American League since the 1956 Washington Senators (staff ERA of 5.33), Cleveland lost 101 games, Manager Pat Corrales and any false hope of winning the AL East by the end of the decade.

That’s why Bill Caudill, Steve Crawford, Doug Jones, Bill Laskey, Jack O’Connor and Dan Schatzeder were all trying to resurrect pitching careers in Tucson. If it can’t happen with the Indians, it won’t happen anywhere.

7. BALTIMORE--Any more Ripkens out there?

With the possible exception of Eddie Murray, Baltimore’s two best baseball players hail from the same family. So does the manager, Cal Sr., whose reunion with sons Cal Jr. and Billy could be interrupted if the Orioles suffer through another 95-loss season.

This once-mighty franchise is now beginning the initial stages of rebuilding. Young talent keeps getting pumped into the lineup--Rick Schu at third base, Pete Stanicek in left, Ken Gerhart in center--while the old pitchers scramble to hold things together. It didn’t happen last summer, as the club that once boasted four 20-game winners didn’t have one 11-game winner in 1987. New acquisition Mike Morgan did better than that with a 12-17 season in Seattle.

HOW THEY FINISHED IN 1987 AL WEST

Team W L Pct. GB Minnesota 85 77 .525 -- Kansas City 83 79 .512 2 Oakland 81 81 .500 4 Seattle 78 84 .481 7 Chicago 77 85 .475 8 Angels 75 87 .463 10 Texas 75 87 .463 10

AL EAST

Team W L Pct. GB Detroit 98 64 .605 -- Toronto 96 66 .593 2 Milwaukee 91 71 .562 7 New York 89 73 .549 9 Boston 78 84 .481 20 Baltimore 67 95 .414 31 Cleveland 61 101 .377 37