COMMENTARY : Broncos Must Gamble to Beat the Favored 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers have been installed as early 11 1/2-point favorites over the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl to be played in two weeks in New Orleans.

But Denver is the only team in the 1980s not to have been beaten by the 49ers. Their last victory was 16-13 in overtime at Candlestick last season. And in John Elway they have about the only NFL quarterback other than San Francisco’s Joe Montana who has proven himself capable of being able to carry a team by himself.

“It’s not very often that the two teams with the best record in the regular season meet in the Super Bowl,” Denver Coach Dan Reeves said after San Francisco’s victory. “I didn’t see any weakness in them today. Certainly a lot has been made of the fact that we’ve lost three Super Bowls.”

Here’s how the teams match up:

San Francisco offense

vs. Denver defense

While the Broncos led the AFC in defense, they proved themselves vulnerable to the run in their playoff win over Pittsburgh. The defense under Wade Phillips depended on a pass rush, but Montana generally throws quick patterns that make him difficult to sack.

“Their offense is the most difficult ball control offense to defend that I have ever seen,” Rams Coach John Robinson said after the 49ers beat his team 30-3 Sunday after splitting with them in the regular season.

Moreover, the diversity of the San Francisco offense makes it almost impossible to defend. The running game has come alive the last two weeks, when Roger Craig gained 120 and 93 yards and Tom Rathman added 93 Sunday. Both Craig and Rathman, along with tight end Brent Jones, are excellent receivers underneath a defense that must double-team both Jerry Rice and John Taylor.

The Broncos are strong at safety, where Dennis Smith and Steve Atwater are one of the league’s best tandems.

But they are vulnerable on the corners, where neither Tyrone Braxton nor Wymon Henderson seems to have the speed to stay with Rice and Taylor. That means they will have to gamble to stop the 49ers, and gambles can be fatal.

Denver offense

vs. San Francisco defense

If Elway is on, he is as dangerous as Montana--on a key third-down play against Cleveland Sunday, he was flushed from the pocket, rolled left and completed a pass across his body to the right side. The Broncos also have more depth at wide receiver with Mark Jackson, Vance Johnson, Ricky Nattiel and Michael Young, but none of the tight ends can catch as well as Jones and the backs aren’t great receiving threats.

That will present a challenge for a secondary led by Ronnie Lott which performed admirably Sunday but may have a weak link at left corner in Darryl Pollard.

But Elway will need some help from his running game and the 49ers are one of the most difficult teams to run on; the Rams had just 26 yards rushing and had no rushing first downs.

They will be even harder to run on in the Super Bowl. Nose tackle Michael Carter played his first game Sunday since a foot injury midway through the season.