BASEBALL : Except AL West, Division Races Worth Watching

By ROSS NEWHAN

Aug. 21, 1990 12 AM PT

In mid-August of a season that has produced a spring training lockout, a prison sentence for baseball’s all-time hit leader and a permanent suspension of the New York Yankees’ owner, attention may finally focus on what remains of the pennant races.

What is the status of the season with 6 1/2 weeks remaining, that half-week being the rescheduled fallout of the season-delaying lockout?

Who’s alive? Who’s not?

It can be said with some certainty that one race is already over.

The Oakland Athletics, bidding for a third consecutive American League pennant and threatening to build a dynasty in an era of parity, have virtually wrapped up the Western Division title, burying everyone except the surprising Chicago White Sox in what was thought to be baseball’s strongest division.

The A’s and White Sox are currently playing a three-game series, but regardless of the outcome, it seems inconceivable that the A’s--with their arsenal of weapons and the best home and road records in baseball--will blow a lead of 5 1/2 games to an overachieving team that has been forced to use an average of almost four pitchers a game, straining what has been a productive bullpen.

For the A’s, who have won eight of their last 11 games, the final 6 1/2 weeks will be used primarily to heal--principally Jose Canseco’s injured back and Rickey Henderson’s tender hamstring--and to gear up for the playoffs, though Manager Tony La Russa never allows the A’s to gear down.

It is worth noting that Oakland’s 77-44 record before Monday’s loss was the same as it was in 1988, when the A’s won 104 games and finished with a 13-game lead, and was four games superior to last year’s, when the A’s won 99 games and finished with a seven-game lead.

If the A’s win 99 again, requiring a modest pace of .550, the White Sox will have to win 29 of their final 43 to tie, a .674 percentage compared to their .588 pace for the season.

The A’s might not have iced the champagne yet, but they have chilled the division. Of the hot races elsewhere, it may be a concern to baseball that so few teams are involved.

There is still hope for some in the mathematics, but in reality it comes down to the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East, the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets in the National League East, and the Cincinnati Reds, Dodgers and San Francisco Giants--provincially stretching some--in the National League West.

AL EAST

The Red Sox, who lead the Blue Jays by one game, will play a four-game series starting Thursday in Toronto and a three-game series against the Blue Jays in Boston on the final weekend of the season.

The Red Sox have won five of six from the Blue Jays and seem to have an edge in the schedule considering: a) they will play their final eight games at home while the Blue Jays play their final nine on the road, and b) they will play 23 of their final 42 games at home, where they are 38-20, compared to 27-35 on the road.

Both the Red Sox and Blue Jays have been enigmas, to some extent.

Boston led the league in team batting as of Monday but was 12th in runs, 13th in home runs, 14th in stolen bases and first in two categories it would prefer not to be: number of times shut out and number of double plays grounded into.

Toronto leads the league in runs with 600, an average of 4.9 a game, but is seventh in earned-run average, the inconsistent performance of a staff considered one of the deepest and best having diluted that consistently potent offense.

The Blue Jays, however, had lowered their ERA from 4.38 in May to 4.24 in June to 3.90 as of Monday and approached the stretch with six sound starters: Dave Stieb (16-4), Jimmy Key (8-6), David Wells (9-3), Todd Stottlemyre (11-13), John Candelaria (7-5) and John Cerutti (8-8). All have been down this road before.

The Red Sox, after Roger Clemens (18-5) and Mike Boddicker (11-8), have been operating with mirrors. How Greg Harris (10-5) and rookies Tom Bolton (7-2) and Dana Kiecker (4-5) hold up remains to be seen.

Also, only time will tell if the Red Sox can survive without relief ace Jeff Reardon, whose anticipated late-September return from a back injury is still uncertain. Since July 21, when Reardon blew a save in his last appearance, the Boston bullpen is 1-4 with with five saves and three blown saves.

Rob Murphy, who is 0-6, has now been replaced as the closer by a 27-year-old rookie appropriately named Jeff Gray. Nothing with these two teams is black and white.

NL WEST

The Reds, seeking to become the first team since introduction of the 162-game schedule in 1961 to lead wire to wire, have six games left with the Dodgers and four with the Giants.

They also play their last nine games at home, while the Dodgers play their last nine and 20 of their last 41 on the road, where they are 28-33.

Trailing by 5 1/2 games, the Dodgers are 5-7 against the Reds and will seemingly have to sweep those six games while avoiding a deadlock in six games with the Giants.

It’s a tough road in many ways, particularly since Tim Belcher has joined Orel Hershiser on the disabled list. Jim Neidlinger and Mike Hartley must get used to their major league starting roles amid the pressure of a stretch drive. They are all “must” victories for the Dodgers now, and 22-year-old Ramon Martinez carries the burden of ace.

The Reds, although they boast the league’s top ERA of 3.31, are in something of a similar bind. Danny Jackson is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury and may be lost for the season, Tom Browning is temporarily sidelined by a sprained ankle, and Jack Armstrong has lost six of his last seven decisions. Rick Mahler, Scott Scudder and rookie Chris Hammond, 14-1 at Nashville, are being asked to pitch some key games.

The Reds opened the door again for the Dodgers and Giants by losing four in a row to the Pirates during the weekend, but pitching wasn’t as critical as the absence of key hits.

The Reds are second in the NL in team batting but seventh in runs. Eric Davis, representing the heart of the order, is batting .224, unable to shake a yearlong slump. The Reds have gotten this far before. They may need heart in more ways than one.

NL EAST

The Mets and A’s share baseball’s best home record of 40-22, but the Mets play only 19 more games at home, compared to 23 on the road, where they are 28-29.

The Mets, three games behind, are 6-4 against the Pirates but play six of their remaining eight games against the Pirates in Three Rivers Stadium, including the last three of the season.

The Pirates will play 23 games at home and 19 on the road, and have played well everywhere in response to predictions that they would fold, yielding inevitably to the Mets.

The fact is, Pittsburgh is solid top to bottom, with MVP candidate Barry Bonds at the forefront of an offense featuring Bobby Bonilla, Andy Van Slyke and Jeff King. The Pirates also have a deceptively deep pitching staff that has a better ERA than the celebrated Mets, 3.53 to 3.63.

Nineteen pitchers--one shy of the major league record--have posted at least one win for the Pirates, and eight have registered at least one save.

Doug Drabek (16-5) has emerged as a stopper in the rotation, Zane Smith is 2-0 since his win-now acquisition from Montreal and rookie Randy Tomlin has a 1.93 ERA in three starts since his recall from double A, taking the place of Bob Walk, on the disabled list with a groin strain. And Monday night, Neal Heaton (11-8) got his first victory since June 24.

The Mets have outscored the Pirates by 29 runs, but Darryl Strawberry has only three homers in his last 26 games and Kevin McReynolds three in his last 46.

The Mets have that splendid pitching and a 68-51 record under manager Bud Harrelson, but the Pirates have shaken off each of New York’s challenges, creating the impression that these Bucs may not stop here, which would be one of 1990’s biggest stories--on or off the field.

DRIVING FOR THE PENNANT

With six weeks left in the season, there are still 11 teams with a chance to reach post-season play. Here’s how the schedule looks for the contenders.

NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST

Cincinnati: 42 games left; 6 with Dodgers; 4 with San Fransisco.

Dodgers: 5 1/2 back; 41 games left; 6 games with Cincinnati; 6 games with San Fransisco.

San Fransisco: 6 1/2 back; 41 games left; 4 games with Cincinnati; 6 games with Dodgers.

NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST

Pittsburgh: 41 games left: 6 with New York; 3 with Montreal.

New York: 3 games back; 43 games left; 6 with Pittsburgh; 6 with Montreal.

Montreal: 9 games back; 41 games left; 3 games with Pittsburgh; 6 games with New York.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST

Oakland: 40 games left; 5 with Chicago.

Chicago: 5 1/2 back; 43 games left; 5 with Oakland.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WEST