East Could Get Big Quake in Next Century, Study Says

California may get the publicity, but residents of the East are in just as much danger from earthquakes, according to a report published today.

There are many more quakes in California than there are in the Eastern states, but when tremors strike in the Central and Eastern states, they affect much larger areas.

“Hence, while California is more hazardous . . . on the basis of frequency of occurrence, both regions have comparable risk,” say S. P. Nishenko and G. A. Bollinger in Science, the journal of the American Assn. for the Advancement of Science. The report is due out Friday.

The two researchers calculated that there is a 29% chance of a serious quake in the East or central states by the turn of the century and that such a temblor is 97% certain within 100 years.

“We’re trying to do this responsibly and not cry wolf and cause people to be alarmed,” Bollinger said.

The danger of earthquakes is well known in California. But scientists warn that quakes in the East can cause damage over larger areas because the underlying bedrock in the region is different from that in the West.

By the year 2000, Bollinger and Nishenko calculate, there is an 8% chance of a magnitude 6 quake in New England, 11% in the Southeast and 13% in the New Madrid, Mo., area, which includes much of the central United States. Combined, there is a 29% chance of a quake in the East, they said.

The New Madrid area was struck by the strongest tremor on record in this country in the winter of 1811-1812, a quake reportedly felt as far away as Washington and Boston.

By the year 2090, the researchers calculate a 97% chance of a 6.0 quake somewhere in the East. The chances are 55% in New England, 70% in the Southeast and 75% in the New Madrid region.