AMERICA’S CUP UPDATE : NOTEBOOK : Defenders Believe Japanese, Kiwis Rank 1-2 Among the Challengers

Starting May 9, Bill Koch or Dennis Conner will be racing one of the challengers for the America’s Cup. Friday they sized them up.

“The Japanese boat is the best in strong winds,” Conner said. “In medium conditions, the Kiwi (New Zealand) boat is fastest. In light winds, I’m not sure. I think the French have a very good boat, (but) the French team makes a lot of mistakes.”

And Il Moro di Venezia, once perceived as the powerhouse?

“I think (skipper) Paul (Cayard) is gonna have a tough time.”

Koch said, “I’d give a little higher chance to the Japanese than to the Kiwis. I’d give a little higher chance to the French than to the Italians . . . the Japanese one, the Kiwis two, the French three and the Italians four.”

Conner added, “If it’s windy and choppy, the goal post keels (like New Zealand has) don’t seem to work as well as the forward appendage the Japanese have, and they’re very fast upwind.

“If it’s a windy series the next two weeks, you’re gonna see the Japanese doing very well. If you have a smooth-water series in moderate conditions, you’re gonna see the Kiwis on top.

“Unless there’s some significant changes that happened in the last two weeks, those two are gonna be in the finals, and then the weather’s gonna decide it.”

There was a report Friday that the challengers were investigating an allegation that Nippon was taking a forward rudder on and off between races during the third round of trials.

That could be considered a “mode change” and a possible violation of Rule 21.2 of the conditions for the Louis Vuitton Cup, which forbid “any change which could affect her most recent confirmed certificate . . .”

In other words, once a boat’s principal features have been measured and noted, they can’t be altered until the designated “no-change” period ends.

The advantage would be to adapt to daily weather conditions.

America 3 issued a two-paragraph release Friday to announce how it was slotting its two boats in the fourth round:

“The decision as to what boat would be entered into which slot was made based on a number of factors including, but not limited to, weather predictions, the design of the boats and analysis of permutations from our probability tree.”

Is that like a partridge in a pear tree?

When Sweden’s Tre Kronor lost after running over Spain’s discarded spinnaker in the challenger trials and the jury let the Spanish get away with it, there was an outcry of outrage among fair-minded people.

Now Tom Ehman, executive vice president/general manager of the America’s Cup Organizing Committee, has issued a change in the rules governing the Cup match in May to allow redress for a boat “obstructed by another yacht’s equipment not in a normal position.”

But the jury must initiate the redress and be convinced that the trailing boat didn’t deliberately look for something to run into. The jury may then order the race resailed or award the race to the offended boat.

The jury for the defender trials also agreed to the change, and the challengers’ jury is expected to, as well--unfortunately, too late to help the departed Swedes.

For the record: A report stating that New Zealand used its bowsprit illegally through the first two rounds of challenger trials was incorrect. A rule change for for the third round made New Zealand’s method illegal, and the Kiwis complied.