AFC Preview: Winner Gets Shot to Be Loser in Pasadena

Does it really matter? Does it make any difference if familiar faces from Buffalo or Denver win the AFC championship? Or if newcomers from Houston or Kansas City get to the Super Bowl?

The AFC is going to lose the big game again anyway, right? Whichever team comes through the conference--the Bills, Broncos, Oilers and Chiefs have to be considered the frontrunners--will meet those bullies from the NFC and get plastered in Pasadena.

Not that 14 AFC teams won’t be struggling for four months to get a shot at being routed by the Redskins or 86’d by the 49ers.

“When you walk away from that game on the wrong end, it hurts real bad,” says Bills linebacker Darryl Talley. “It makes you want it even more the next time.

“We know what it feels like. We know it double. And we want to get back and feel the other side.”

Many people consider the AFC the other side of the league, the side you don’t talk about in mixed company. No American Conference team has won the title since the Raiders at the end of the 1983 season. The Dolphins, Patriots, Broncos (thrice), Bengals and Bills (twice) have failed.

Buffalo, Houston and Denver come off division titles. The Broncos won the West helped greatly by a fifth-place schedule. This time, with trips to Washington, Philadelphia and Buffalo, it will be a lot tougher holding off the Chiefs.

Houston should run-and-shoot its way to the Central crown with little opposition from its weak brethren in Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.

The Bills are vulnerable in the East, especially with Bruce Smith’s knee a question mark again. But neither the Jets nor Dolphins appear to have the talent or experience to catch Buffalo quite yet.

Here is a team-by-team look at the AFC:

EAST Buffalo

LAST YEAR: Finished 13-3 in the regular season, reached the Super Bowl with a 10-7 win over Denver, then lost, 37-24, to Washington in the title game, their second straight Super Bowl loss.

STRENGTHS: Hurry-up offense featuring Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas, Andre Reed, James Lofton and a solid, veteran offensive line. Defensive impact players in Bruce Smith (if healthy), Cornelius Bennett and Shane Conlan plus solid secondary led by Nate Odomes.

WEAKNESSES: Defense against the run, particularly if Smith can’t come back to form from knee injury. Young safeties.

NEWCOMERS: Henry Jones, last year’s No. 1 pick, will start at strong safety after making little contribution last year because of holdout. OT John Fina, this year’s top pick, is for the future.

QUESTION MARKS: Will two straight Super Bowl losses sap some of the confidence? Will the “bickering Bills” of 1989 return? Smith and Thomas showed some signs of testiness in the Super Bowl. Can a team that has stayed basically the same keep its intensity for another season or is some new leadership needed?

PROGNOSIS: The division is getting better, although there’s no one with Buffalo’s talent. The schedule is harder than last season and while a playoff spot is likely, home field in the playoffs isn’t, which could cost the Bills another Super Bowl trip.

New York Jets

LAST YEAR: Improved from 6-10 to 8-8 in the second year of the Dick Steinberg-Bruce Coslet administration. Made playoffs with an overtime win in Miami in the final game, then lost wild-card game at Houston, 17-10

STRENGTHS: Skill positions--Al Toon and Rob Moore at wide receiver, Blair Thomas and Brad Baxter at running back. Young defensive line led by Dennis Byrd and Jeff Lageman has pass rush potential. Second-year linebacker Mo Lewis is a coming star.

WEAKNESSES: Linebacker, where rookie Kurt Barber hasn’t won the starting spot expected of him. Quarterback, where second-year-man Browning Nagle is being force-fed as replacement for holdout Ken O’Brien. It may hurt in the short run, work out in the long term.

NEWCOMERS: Nagle, who took only two snaps last year. TE Johnny Mitchell, the No. 1 pick; Barber.

QUESTION MARKS: Can Nagle mature fast enough to get the Jets back to the playoffs again? Can Thomas reach the potential of the No. 2 overall pick in the 1990 draft? How patient will fans be at Steinberg’s long-term philosophy, which could take a step back this year.

PROGNOSIS: Going with Nagle is risky only because he’s likely to be erratic, something Coslet concedes. The Jets could win 10 games and make the playoffs; they could also win six.

Miami

LAST YEAR: Slid to 8-8 and after 12-4 in 1990 and missed the playoffs with an overtime loss to the Jets in the final game.

STRENGTHS: Coach Don Shula. Passing of Dan Marino to Mark Duper, Mark Clayton, Ferrell Edmunds; improved offensive line led by third-year-men Richmond Webb and Keith Sims. Bobby Humphrey, obtained from Denver for fumble-prone Sammie Smith, should improve running game and Mark Higgs is a capable backup. PK Steve Stoyanovich and P Reggie Roby, perhaps the league’s best kicking tandem.

WEAKNESSES: Overall defense, until proven otherwise. Strengthened if oft-injured LB John Offerdahl stays healthy all year.

NEWCOMERS: CB Troy Vincent and LB-DE Marco Coleman, No. 1 picks taken to bring instant help to the defense. Humphrey, who was holdout in Denver but had two 1,000 yards season.

QUESTION MARKS: Injuries to Offerdahl, Webb and Simms killed them last year along with Smith’s goal-line fumbles. Can they stay healthy this year? Will Humphrey revert to the 1,000-yard form he had in Denver? Can Vincent and Coleman have immediate impact?

PROGNOSIS: Marino makes any team dangerous and while the receiving corps is aging, Humphrey should be enough of a change that Dolphins will be somewhere between the 12-4 of 1990 and the 8-8 of last year.

New England

LAST YEAR: Improved from 1-15 to 6-10 as Hugh Millen became a respectable quarterback and new coach Dick MacPherson brought enthusiasm and organization.

STRENGTHS: Tight end Marv Cook, an All-Pro last year; offensive tackles Bruce Armstrong and Pat Harlow, both with All-Pro potential; running back Leonard Russell, with Harlow one of two outstanding rookies last season. Linebackers.

WEAKNESSES: Lack of offense, which won’t be helped by loss of WR Hart Lee Dykes. Speed at receiver, although Irvin Fryar had best season last year. Pass rush, secondary.

NEWCOMERS: Guard Eugene Chung, the No. 1 draft pick. Plan B safety Randy Robbins from Denver.

QUESTION MARKS: Can the mixture of the young (Harlow, Russell, Ray Agnew, Crhis Singleton) combine with the old (Andre Tippett, Garin Veris, Armstrong) to produce enough wins to make the playoffs? Is Millen, a career backup until last season, more than a one-year wonder? Will MacPherson’s enthusiasm carry over or get old?

PROGNOSIS: The Pats probably weren’t a 1-15 team two years ago, when things fell apart on and off the field. But 6-10, give or take a few more wins, looks like their level.

Indianapolis

LAST YEAR: Dropped from 7-9 to 1-15 as injuries decimated offensive line; Eric Dickerson created morale problems and Ron Meyer gave way to Rick Venturi as head coach. Scored NFL record-low 143 points while allowing 381.

STRENGTHS: Jeff George, who might as well have played without a line, should be one of the league’s future quarterback stars; linebacking corps led by Jeff Herrod and Duane Bickett.

WEAKNESSES: Secondary; running back, where they depend on Albert Bentley, recovering from serious knee surgery; lack of pass rush and offensive line that is still depending on retreads like Ron Solt. One reason is loss of Chris Hinton to Atlanta in which the Colts got George’s rights.

NEWCOMERS: DT Steve Emtman and LB Quentin Coryatt, the top two overall picks in the draft, are expected to have an immediate impact. New coach Ted Marchibroda, also an old coach (Baltimore, 1975-77). Solt, a Pro Bowler with the Colts, who returned from Eagles to play guard.

QUESTION MARKS: Can Marchibroda, who rehired Venturi as defensive coordinator, turn around last year’s hopeless cause? Will return of center Ray Donaldson stablize offensive line? Can Emtman and Coryatt have an immediate impact? How soon before the Irsays get impatient again and make another trade like the one in which they gave away two No. 1 draft picks for Fredd Young?

PROGNOSIS: Like the Patriots last year, this is a 1-15 team with the potential to be 6-10. If Emtman and Coryatt live up to their billing, the defense will be better, but the Colts remain weak at the crucial owner position.

CENTRAL Houston

LAST YEAR: Won Central at 11-5, beat Jets in wild-card game 17-10 before losing in Denver 26-24 on last-minute John Elway heroics.

STRENGTHS: Run-and-shoot offense led by Warren Moon and receivers Ernest Givins and Haywood Jeffires. Offensive line, standout defensive players in defensive end Ray Childress, safety Bubba McDowell and running back Lorenzo White, who has been impressive in camp.

WEAKNESSES: Age--Moon will be 37 this year and offensive linemen Bruce Matthews and Mike Munchak are also getting up there. Mediocre linebackers, although Al Smith made Pro Bowl last year. One-dimensional nature of run-and-shoot, which makes scoring inside the 20 difficult.

NEWCOMERS: White’s not a newcomer, but he’s getting his first chance to start and has added immeasurably to running game.

QUESTION MARKS: Can White add enough variation to the offense to make the Oilers more dangerous on the road, in the the playoffs and in cold weather cities, like Buffalo and Kansas City? Has the team stagnated after a league-high five straight playoff appearances in which it’s never gotten past the second round? Can receivers be found to offset the loss of Drew Hill and Tony Jones to Atlanta in Plan B?

PROGNOSIS: Houston should win the Central by default, and could even go to the Super Bowl in a conference where the only team that sticks out, Buffalo, may be reeling from two straight Super Bowl losses. But the parts are beginning to wear down.

Pittsburgh

LAST YEAR: Went from 9-7 to 7-9, which is the area they’ve inhabited for the decade since they stopped winning Super Bowls. Coach Chuck Noll retired and was replaced by 35-year-old Bill Cowher.

STRENGTHS: Secondary led by Rod Woodson at corner and Carnell Lake at safety; running game featuring Barry Foster and Merril Hoge. Tight end Eric Green, awesome at 275 pounds -- when healthy. Enthusiasm of Cowher, who promises nothing less than a Super Bowl.

WEAKNESSES: Inconsistency on offense, particularly at quarterback, where Bubby Brister and Neil O’Donnell are fighting for the starting job. Lack of an overwhelming pass rush. Lack of outside speed.

NEWCOMERS: Cowher and first new coaching staff in 22 years. OT Leon Searcy, the No. 1 pick.

QUESTION MARKS: Will Brister or O’Donnell be able to show consistency instead of just flashes? Can anyone develop as a complement as a speed receiver to Louis Lipps, who also can be injury prone? Are the running backs and Green enough of an offense?

PROGNOSIS: On the surface, this looks like another in a series of Steeler teams that will lurk around .500. Under certain circumstances, that could get them a playoff spot, but little else, despite Cowher’s enthusiasm.

Cleveland

LAST YEAR: Improved to 6-10 from 3-13 under new coach Bill Belichick, the fourth coach in five years for the Browns.

STRENGTHS: Quarterback Bernie Kosar, receiver Webster Slaughter; defensive tackle Michael Dean Perry; second-year guard Ed King, a coming Pro Bowler, and second-year defensive lineman James Jones; second-year safety Eric Turner.

WEAKNESSES: Secondary; linebacker if Mike Johnson can’t come back from broken foot; receivers other than Slaughter; Tight end, where Belichick is trying to reconstruct Mark Bavaro and his oft-reconstructed knee.

NEWCOMERS: Bavaro; RB James Brooks, Plan B pickup from Cincinnati; RB Tommy Vardell, the first-round draft choice.

QUESTION MARKS: Will Bavaro make it back and if he does, will he approach anything near his All-Pro form with the Giants? Can Belichick squeeze another three extra wins out of what remains an aging team? Will Kosar’s sore arm hold up?

PROGNOSIS: Belichick instilled discipline and enthusiasm, but he still needs more talent than he has. Impatient owner Art Modell has given the coach a five-year contract to remake the team and he may need all five of them.

Cincinnati

LAST YEAR: Went from 9-7 to 3-13 and coach Sam Wyche departed for Tampa Bay (or was asked to depart, depending on whose version). Dave Shula, the NFL’s youngest head coach takes over.

STRENGTHS: Quarterback Boomer Esiason, if his sore arm holds up. Young linebackers James Francis and Alfred Williams, plus safety David Fulcher, who should be helped by the more aggressive philosophy being installed by new defensive coordinator Ron Lynn. Offensive tackle Anthony Munoz, at 34, still one of the best offensive linemen ever.

WEAKNESSES: Defense, particularly the pass rush. Lack of depth at wide receiver with season ending neck injury to Eddie Brown.

NEWCOMERS: QB David Klingler and safety Darryl Williams, although Klingler is a long-term project to succeed Esiason. Fourth-round LB Ricardo McDonald may see action.

QUESTION MARKS: Will Esiason’s elbow, which has bothered him off-and-on the past two seasons, hold up for this one? Will Shula, at 33, be able to win the respect of players nearly his age? Will Lynn’s aggressiveness make up for the holes in what has been one of the NFL’s worst defenses the past few years?

PROGNOSIS: Won’t be 3-13 again in a mediocre division and could get back to .500. But too many injured or aging parts top be a serious contender.

WEST Denver

LAST YEAR: With help of last-place schedule, rebounded to 12-4 after 5-11 and came within three points of going to Super Bowl with 10-7 loss in AFC championship game to Buffalo.

STRENGTHS: QB John Elway, who despite Super Bowl setbacks remains one of the league’s most dangerous players. Running back Gaston Green, who emerged last year after being obtained from Rams. Safety Steve Atwater, who heads a solid corps of young defensive standouts that includes LB Mike Croel, last year’s defensive rookie of the year.

WEAKNESSES: Offensive line, which allowed 45 sacks last year and includes Harvey Salem, Ken Lanier and Sean Farrell, all over 30. Depth at wide receiver, where only Mark Jackson remains of the Three Amigos--Vance Johnson is hurt, Ricky Nattiel gone. Cornerback.

NEWCOMERS: RB Sammie Smith, obtained from Miami; QB Tommy Maddox, the No. 1 pick and eventual successor to Elway.

QUESTION MARKS: Can young defenders like Mike Croel, LB Keith Traylor and pass rusher Kenny Walker mature quickly enough to supplant old-timers like Karl Mecklenburg? Can receivers like second-year man Derek Russell replace Johnson and utility man Steve Sewell, who are out for the season. And last year’s leading receiver, Michael Young, is recovering from back surgery.

PROGNOSIS: The Broncos have had solid drafts the last two years and may have had another this season. In the AFC, that can translate into a Super Bowl appearance, although Denver may prefer not to get that far. A division contender, with the defense, surprisingly, stronger than the offense.

Kansas City

LAST YEAR: With great expectations following an 11-5 year went a disappointing 10-6 and qualified for playoffs as a wild-card, beating the Raiders before losing in Buffalo.

STRENGTHS: Defense led by DE Neil Smith and LB Derrick Thomas, both among the game’s best. Running game featuring Christian Okoye, Barry Word and Harvey Williams and the offensive line as a unit.

WEAKNESSES: Continuing questions at quarterback, where Steve DeBerg has been replaced by Plan B pickup Dave Krieg. Secondary, where safety Deron Cherry has retired and cornerback Albert Lewis was out with injuries.

NEWCOMERS: Krieg; defensive back Dale Carter, the No. 1 pick.

QUESTION MARKS: Can Krieg, the NFL’s career leader in fumbles, be more consistent in Kanas City’s conservative offense? Will the secondary, without Cherry as its leader, hold up? Can Percy Snow, who broke an ankle in a training-camp accident last year, come back at inside linebacker? Is Marty Schottenheimer the Chuck Knox of this generation -- a coach who can get a team to the playoffs but not much farther?

PROGNOSIS: The Chiefs play like an NFC team--running and defense--meaning if they ever get to the Super Bowl, they might win it. Getting there is the problem. Still, they’re in the AFC’s top echelon with Buffalo, Houston and Denever.

Raiders

LAST YEAR: Went 10-6 and qualified for wild-card after winning AFC title at 12-4 the previous year. Lost playoff game to Kansas City with Todd Marinovich at quarterback.

STRENGTHS: Defensive line featuring Howie Long, Scott Davis and Greg Townsend. Running backs Marcus Allen, Nick Bell, and newly obtained Eric Dickerson. Offensive linemen Don Mosebar and Steve Wisniewski and speedy receiving corps featuring Tim Brown, Willie Gault and Mervyn Fernandez. Underrated fullback Steve Smith.

WEAKNESSES: Quarterback, quarterback, quarterback. Aging linebacking corps and so-so secondary that features Ronnie Lott, who found fountain of youth in Los Angeles last season.

NEWCOMERS: Dickerson, who may be this year’s Lott; No. 1 pick Chester McGlockton, a William Perry clone who could excel if he pushes himself away from the table.

QUESTION MARKS: Will Schroeder ever be consistent? If not, can Marinovich overcome personal problems to become the quarterback of the future? Will Dickerson return to form in a California climate on a team with a chance to win?

PROGNOSIS: There’s enough ability here to sneak into the Super Bowl . . . if only the ability extended to quarterback. Two trades really hurt: the one that sent All-Pro tackle Jim Lachey AND a No. 1 to Washington for Schroeder and the one that sent Steve Beuerlein to Dallas for merely a fourth-rounder.

Seattle

LAST YEAR: Finished 7-9 after going 9-7--the characteristic spread of the last decade. Then Chuck Knox resigned to go to the Rams and was replaced by general manager Tom Flores.

STRENGTHS: Not many. John L. Williams is a quality fullback; Cortez Kennedy is one of the league’s best young defensive linemen.

WEAKNESSES: No quarterback with the departure of Krieg under Plan B -- Kelly Stouffer or Dan McGwire, with a total of 10 NFL starts between them. Shaky offensive line, questionable secondary.

NEWCOMERS: Flores; offensive tackle Ray Roberts, the No. 1 pick, who may be asked to step in as a starter. Running back Rueben Mayes, who came out of retirement; defensive tackle Keith Millard, obtained from Minnesota.

QUESTION MARKS: Can Stouffer or McGwire step forward? The 6-foot-8 McGwire can throw a ball almost as far as brother Mark can hit a baseball, but has almost no pro experience. Can Millard recover from knee problems that cost him two seasons?

PROGNOSIS: Flores won a Super Bowl with the Raiders. But these aren’t the Raiders. Probably a last-place team unless the Chargers fade with John Friesz’ injury.

San Diego

LAST YEAR: After looking like an improving team, dropped from 6-10 to 4-12, a decline that cost Dan Henning his job as coach.

STRENGTHS: Running game featuring Marion Butts, Rod Bernstine and Eric Bienemy; cornerback Gill Byrd; wide receiver Anthony Miller; young, improving, offensive line and pass rush featuring Leslie O’Neal amd Burt Grossman.

WEAKNESSES: Quarterback, John Friesz was lost for the season in the first exhibition, leaving Coach Bobby Ross with Stan Humphries, obtained from Washington plus Bob Gagliano, Jeff Graham and Pat O’Hara.. Secondary other than Byrd and safety Stanley Richard; wide receiver other than Miller.

NEWCOMERS: Ross--GM Bobby Beathard, in typical fashion, traded away this year’s No. 1 to take guard Eric Moten and No. 1 could have been Heisman winner Desmond Howqard.

PROGNOSIS: With Beathard around, this team should be getting better. If they can get by the quarterback problem, they could be a .500 team.