Shooting for the Hip : A new Grammy system designed to recognize more adventurous music makes predicting nominees even trickier. But out crystal ball is ready to go.

Get ready for some surprises when the Grammy nominations are announced on Jan. 4.

Because of a radical change in the nominating procedure, Joni Mitchell and Blues Traveler stand a better chance of making the finals in key categories than such Grammy standbys as Mariah Carey and Michael Jackson.

For the first time in the Grammys’ 38-year history, a panel was assembled to review the selections of the 7,300 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences, which presents the music industry’s most coveted awards.

In each of the top four categories--album, single, song and new artist--the 20 entries that received the most votes from the general membership were submitted to a 25-member panel, composed of voting members of the academy.

The panel, whose membership has been kept confidential, met for two days last week in Los Angeles to listen to the recordings and then vote by secret ballot to determine the final nominees.

The new system is the boldest step yet taken by academy President Mike Greene to respond to perennial complaints that the Grammys are out of touch with the most vital currents in contemporary music.

While no one expects the Grammys to turn into the MTV Awards, the nominations are apt to be a little hipper this year. The academy handpicked panelists whom it regards as active and current--people who at least aren’t apt to ask: “Which one’s Hootie?”

Besides, the panelists probably understood that their mission was to reach out to more adventurous recordings than Grammy voters have embraced in the past. In the last three years, the academy has given its best-album prize to “The Bodyguard” soundtrack and “Unplugged” career recaps by Eric Clapton and Tony Bennett.

Because of the procedural change, predicting the Grammy nominations becomes a two-step process. The first is anticipating which of the 1,000-plus entries in the top four categories are likely to finish in the top 20. The second is guessing what this panel will do.

Here’s how the new system is likely to play out in the top categories. The awards will be presented on Feb. 28 at the Shrine Auditorium.

Album of the Year

Three albums probably would have made the finals under either system--Alanis Morissette’s chart-topping American debut “Jagged Little Pill” and the second solo albums by Annie Lennox (“Medusa”) and Tom Petty (“Wildflowers”).

Lennox and Petty were nominated in this category with their solo debuts, and Morissette achieved a rare combination of top sales, rave reviews and heavy media exposure--including simultaneous cover stories in Rolling Stone and Spin.

Under the old system, the Eagles’ first album in 14 years, “Hell Freezes Over,” would have been a shoo-in. The band continues to have broad appeal, especially to pop and country-leaning voters. But some panelists probably downgraded the mostly live album for relying so heavily on the group’s ‘70s classics. Even with that drawback, the album is likely to make the cut on the strength of its strong songs and production values.

Mitchell’s “Turbulent Indigo,” which has been hailed as her best album since the mid-’70s, will probably round out the field. It would be the pop veteran’s first nomination in this category since her celebrated “Court and Spark” 21 years ago.

“Turbulent Indigo” will probably take the place of the likely voters’ choice, Carey’s “Daydream,” even though it has sold fewer copies since its release in late 1994 than Carey’s album sells in a good weekend.

Three hip rock albums will probably appear in the panel’s top 10, but none is likely to make the final five. Nirvan’s “MTV Unplugged in New York” stands the best chance, but it will be hurt by competition from Neil Young’s “Mirror Ball,.” on which he is backed by Pearl Jam, and Pearl Jam’s own “Vitalogy.”

“Randy Newman’s Faust,” the veteran singer-songwriter’s rendering of the medieval legend, is the kind of ambitious concept album that the panel would probably want to endorse.

The album features such guest artists as Don Henley, Elton John, James Taylor, Bonnie Raitt and Linda Ronstadt--Grammy winners all. The hard part for “Faust” will be to clear the first hurdle. The album will probably finish very close to the cutoff No. 20 on the initial vote tally.

The likely runners-up include Michael Jackson’s “History: Past, Present and Future, Book 1,” Shania Twain’s “The Woman in Me” TLC’s “Crazysexycool” and Frank Sinatra’s “Duets II.”

Though Ol’ Blue Eyes will probably be shut out in the top category, he’s a cinch to win for best traditional pop vocal performance. It will be the pop legend’s first Grammy in regular competition in 29 years.

Record of the Year

Lennox is likely to show up here as well with her plaintive version of “No More ‘I Love You’s,’ ” a remake of a minor 1986 British hit.

Her chief rivals in this category, which honors the best single, are Seal’s “Kiss From a Rose,” which was featured in the year’s top-grossing film, “Batman Forever,” and Hootie & the Blowfish’s “Let Her Cry,” which was included in the year’s best-selling album, “Cracked Rear View.” (That blockbuster was released before the October 1, 1994, start of the eligibility year, and thus is not in the running for best album.)

Madonna’s shimmering “Take a Bow” is also likely to make it, giving her her first nomination in a top Grammy category. Madonna co-wrote the creamy ballad with industry heavyweight Babyface, who has won five Grammys in the last three years. Madonna’s current “Something to Remember” album has focused attention on her strengths as a ballad singer.

Under the old system, such formulaic, mass-appeal hits as Jackson’s “You Are Not Alone” and Vanessa Williams’ “Colors of the Wind” would have had a good chance to take the fifth spot. But with the panel system, Blues Traveler’s zesty “Run-Around” is likely to zoom past them. If nothing else, the spirited smash probably got some toes tapping around that conference table--a definite plus in a marathon listening session.

Coolio’s “Gangsta’s Paradise,” an imaginative rap adaptation of an old Stevie Wonder song, and TLC’s “Waterfalls,” a slinky R&B; ballad that advanced a subtle AIDS message, are also strong candidates. But they appeal to younger sensibilities than most Grammy voters possess.

Other likely runners-up include the current Carey/Boyz II Men smash “One Sweet Day,” Alan Jackson’s “Gone Country,” Chris Isaak’s “Somebody’s Crying,” Petty’s “You Don’t Know How It Feels” and Twain’s “Any Man of Mine.”

Song of the Year

The nominees for this songwriters’ award usually overlap to a large degree with the candidates for best single.

This year, that is likely to mean another nomination for Seal, Hootie & the Blowfish and Madonna/Babyface, as well as a nod to David Freeman and Joseph Hughes, who wrote “No More ‘I Love You’s.’ ”

“Colors of the Wind” (Alan Menken/Stephen Schwartz), the love theme from “Pocahontas,” would have been a sure thing under the old system. Ballads from Disney’s last three animated features received best-song nominations. But the panel may seek out something more distinctive and original, such as Morissette’s “Hand in My Pocket” or “You Oughta Know,” both of which she co-wrote with Glen Ballard.

The likely runners-up: “You Are Not Alone” (Jackson/R. Kelly), “Run-Around” (John Popper), “Gone Country” (Bob McDill), “Waterfalls” (Marqueze Etheridge/Lisa (Left Eye) Lopes/Organized Noize), “You Don’t Know How It Feels” (Petty) and “Any Man of Mine” (Twain/Robert John (Mutt) Lange).

Best New Artist

This is strictly a two-act contest between Morissette (who has more critical respect) and Hootie & the Blowfish (which has more popular appeal).

Country pinup Twain and silky balladeer Des’ree are also likely to make the cut. Des’ree’s classy “You Gotta Be” would have probably made the finals for best single and best song, but it was released prior to the start of the eligibility year.

Martin Page, a well-connected songwriter who had an adult-contemporary smash of his own this year, would have probably rounded out the field under the old system. But under the new procedure, pop/urban ingenue Brandy, who is featured on new albums by Quincy Jones and Babyface, may take his place.

The pop-rock quintet the Dave Matthews Band, ex-Arrested Development member Dionne Farris and critically lauded soul revivalist D’Angelo head the list of likely runners-up. Also possible: Joan Osborne, Bush, Take That, Better Than Ezra, Elastica, the Foo Fighters and Blessid Union of Souls.