O.C.’s Jobless Rate Ties All-Time Low at 2.2%

Highlighting the region’s comeback from economic collapse in the early 1990s, Los Angeles County’s unemployment rate dropped sharply in November while the jobless rate in Orange County matched an all-time low, , state officials said Friday.

In Orange County, the economic powerhouse of Southern California, joblessness dropped to 2.2% from 2.4% in October, equaling the record low of last December.

The county’s shrinking unemployment rate, which is not adjusted for seasonal factors, reflects stepped-up hiring by retailers for the holidays, state economists said.

The county’s job totals also have risen to record levels. Orange County gained 3,300 jobs in November, as big job gains in retailing offset seasonal cutbacks in the amusement industry.

Los Angeles County’s surprisingly big decline in joblessness, to 5% from 5.5% in October, came despite increasing signs of a national economic slowdown. It is the county’s lowest unemployment rate in at least 18 years.

The latest employment gains suggest that the Los Angeles area, one of California’s economic weak spots through the 1990s, “has essentially caught up with the rest of the state,” said Ted Gibson, chief economist for the state Department of Finance.

Statewide, joblessness held steady at 4.8% in November for the third straight month, as improvement in California’s biggest urban areas was offset by rising joblessness in rural communities.

Analysts cautioned that the latest statistics released Friday by the California Employment Development Department may have somewhat overstated the recent actual improvement in L.A. County’s labor market. They noted the county’s jobless numbers are based on a comparatively small statistical sampling of just over 1,800 households.

All the same, experts agreed the county and the overall Southern California economy have continued to expand in recent months. “We’re looking at a very healthy economy,” said Lisa M. Grobar, director of the Cal State Long Beach Economic Forecast Project, which tracks the five-county Southern California region.

The State Department of Finance’s Gibson said he also was encouraged because, “At this point, we can still say we don’t see the signs of a slowdown in the California numbers that are evident in the national indicators.” Last week the federal government reported the U.S. unemployment rate inched up to 4% in November, up from a 30-year low of 3.9% in October.

In Southern California last month, unemployment fell in every county except Ventura, where it climbed to 4.7% from 4.4% in October.

State officials usually trace unemployment figures back to January 1983, when they began tracking the statistic for Los Angeles, Orange and other counties in the current format.

Michael S. Bernick, director of the California Employment Development Department, said his agency’s employment offices have noticed a considerable number of layoffs around the state in recent weeks. But, he said, “What’s striking is the relatively easy time people who are laid off or unemployed are having finding new jobs.”

“In the great majority of cases, workers are getting roughly equal jobs, or even better jobs, in a short period,” Bernick said.

Still, in Southern California and elsewhere around the state, there is plenty of sobering economic news. Rural areas in much of California continue to suffer double-digit unemployment. The jobless rate in Imperial County, east of San Diego, was the worst in California in November, at 25.7%, down from 30% in October. In many rural counties in Central and Northern California, rates climbed, the customary pattern in November as farm activity slows.

For all its improvement, Los Angeles County still has fewer jobs than it did a decade ago, and per capita income levels still are low here compared with other parts of the country.

Mark Pisano, executive director of the Southern California Assn. of Governments, cited federal statistics showing that per capita income in Los Angeles ranked second to last nationally among 17 large metropolitan areas surveyed. The numbers were collected in 1998.

Los Angeles is recovering, he said, but a key question remains: “Is everyone benefiting?”

What’s more, even though many leading forecasters expect California’s economy to outperform the national economy next year, some slowing is expected in the state.

During November, in fact, the state’s growth in the number of jobs was weaker than in previous months. California employers added 29,200 jobs, down from a revised total of 45,000 for October. Over the last 12 months, California has averaged job gains of 36,942.

Even in robust Orange County, job growth has slowed in recent months.

That trend has been apparent to Vicki Drucker, president of Accurate Personnel Services in Newport Beach, which handles job placements for manufacturing and services business.

Her company is experiencing an excellent year in which business almost doubled, she said, “but the last quarter has been a little bit slower,” particularly in manufacturing.

Underscoring California’s stronger growth compared with the rest of the country, the state last month accounted for 31% of the 94,000 jobs gains nationwide.

The state’s increases came in nine of the 10 major industry groups surveyed. The remaining category was the small-mining sector, which was unchanged from October.

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Plenty of Work

Orange County’s unemployment rate, which is not seasonally adjusted, declined to 2.2% in November according to preliminary figures. The monthly trend: