WEEK 16 BREAKDOWN

MIAMI AT MINNESOTA

Kickoff: Saturday, 10:30 a.m.

TV: Channel 2.

The line: Miami by 3.

Quick slant: Welcome back, Carter. Or maybe not.

Plot: Cris Carter returns to Minnesota, where he spent 12 seasons and caught 1,004 passes -- and will gladly recount every one for you, so pull up a chair. The Dolphins need this game to retain first place in the AFC East, but other than that, Carter contends, and pretends, that this game is no big deal for him. “I’ve proven myself over the years,” he says. “I don’t have to do anything in Minnesota that could solidify me. I’m very secure in my ability as a player. Do I want to be on the field and play? Of course. Do I feel like I can make a difference in the game? Of course. That goes without saying.”

Sunday’s headline: “Vikings Glad Carter’s Gone -- That Goes Without Saying”

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SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA

Kickoff: Saturday, 2 p.m.

TV: Channel 11.

The line: San Francisco by 4.

Quick slant: Snake prepares to leave the desert.

Plot: Home, sweet home has recently soured for Jake Plummer, the once-celebrated Snake who has seen the best of Sun Devil Stadium (Arizona State’s 11-1 season in 1996) and the worst (Arizona Cardinals, most Sundays, 1999-2002). With his contract up after this season, Plummer could be playing his final home game at Sun Devil Stadium against the 49ers. “Which of you guys has my bus ticket?” Plummer joked with Cardinal beat writers this week. Cardinal Coach Dave McGinnis says Plummer deserves to be a starting quarterback in the NFL, “absolutely.” But in Arizona? Not so absolutely.

Sunday’s headline: “Another Plummer Bummer”

*

PHILADELPHIA AT DALLAS

Kickoff: Saturday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

The line: Philadelphia by 6 1/2.

Quick slant: How low can Campo go?

Plot: “He just keeps firing away,” Eagle Coach Andy Reid said, “and that’s important.” Fortunately for Cowboy Coach Dave Campo, Reid was talking about Eagle quarterback A.J. Feeley, who is 3-0 heading into his fourth NFL start, and not Cowboy owner Jerry Jones, who has shown uncharacteristic patience with Campo after seasons of 5-11, 5-11 and 5-9 with two losses to go. But Dallas’ 37-7 loss to the Giants probably forced Jones’ hand to push the door open. “At this point in the season,” Jones said after the defeat, “we should be better. And we’re not.”

Sunday’s headline: “Jones Running Out of Patience, Campo Running Out of Job”

*

DETROIT AT ATLANTA

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Atlanta by 10 1/2.

Quick slant: Mike versus Mike.

Plot: This week’s “Young Guns” episode -- Michael Vick meets Joey Harrington -- was canceled when Harrington was hospitalized and treated for an irregular heartbeat. The doctors say Harrington is fine, but he won’t play again this season, so the Lions will turn their last two games over to Mike McMahon, the team’s one-time “quarterback of the future.” On paper, this appears to be a blowout -- especially with the Falcons at home and needing a victory to clinch a playoff berth. But Seattle-Atlanta had the same look and the Falcons lost in overtime. McMahon, Matt Hasselbeck? Is there any difference?

Monday’s headline: “Finally, Quick Vick Lumbers Into Playoffs”

*

BUFFALO AT GREEN BAY

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Green Bay by 6 1/2.

Quick slant: “Second String” and other yuletide fairy tales.

Plot: Just in time for the holiday season, TNT is serving up a movie called “Second String,” in which a backup quarterback leads the Buffalo Bills to triumph in the Super Bowl. (Yes, that’s TNT, not the Science Fiction Channel.) Gil Bellows plays the Buffalo quarterback -- good to see his career has taken off since “Ally McBeal” -- but only in the movie. Believe it or not, that’s still Drew Bledsoe on the field for the real Bills, despite that 11-for-33 performance against San Diego and a 73 quarterback rating in Buffalo’s last six games. Brett Favre, first string now and forever, wins this one with ease.

Monday’s headline: “Real Bills Discover Reality Bites”

*

HOUSTON AT WASHINGTON

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Washington by 6 1/2.

Quick slant: Carr, bracing for impact.

Plot: David Carr is the only man to take a center snap in the history of the Houston Texans. Or, to put it another way: Help! In 14 games, Carr has been sacked 70 times, two shy of the NFL record for quarterback abuse set by Randall Cunningham in 1986. Word is that Texan beat writers have started a ghoul pool, betting on which offensive lineman will give up the historic 73rd sack, which very likely will happen against the Redskins. At the same time, running back Stephen Davis probably plays his last home game for the Redskins, Redskin running backs having been rendered obsolete by Steve Spurrier.

Monday’s headline: “Carr Only Hurts When He Loses”

*

CHICAGO AT CAROLINA

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Carolina by 3.

Quick slant: Doesn’t speak softly, carries a big kick.

Plot: Because the NFL has not canceled the game and reporters covering the Bears and Panthers need something to write about, all-pro Panther punter Todd Sauerbrun, an ex-Bear, conducted interviews this week detailing his five unhappy years in Chicago. Sauerbrun, as cocky as a 1995 rookie as he is now, said the Bears initially tried to break him: “They wanted to make me dirt on the bottom of their shoe and build me up from there. I don’t agree with that. They went about it all wrong and got nothing out of me.” As Panther-Bear bulletin-board fodder goes, that’s as good as it’s going to get.

Monday’s headline: “Sauerbrun Kicks Bears When They’re Down”

*

N.Y. GIANTS AT INDIANAPOLIS

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11.

The line: Indianapolis by 5.

Quick slant: Not the greatest game in NFL history.

Plot: Forty-four years ago, these two teams played the Greatest Game Ever Played, the Colts defeating the Giants in overtime to win the 1958 NFL championship. In that game the Colts handed the ball in the clutch to Alan Ameche. Now it’s ... James Mungro? That’s what the Colts did last Sunday after trailing Cleveland at the half, 16-0. Mungro replaced Edgerrin James in the second half and scored twice as Indianapolis rallied for a 28-23 victory. This time, the Colts and Giants play for more modest stakes -- wild card, anyone? -- but the Giants are 0-4 against teams with winning records. Oh-and-five, anyone?

Monday’s headline: “Giants’ Playoff Bid Another Thing of the Past”

*

TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Jacksonville by 3.

Quick slant: Rock and Rolle, Part Two.

Plot: Two seasons went careening off in different directions when Tennessee cornerback Samari Rolle laid his helmet-to-helmet hit on Jacksonville quarterback Mark Brunell on Oct. 13. Tennessee, 1-4 at the time, went on to win that game, and seven more, during an 8-1 run. Jacksonville never really recovered; the Jaguars began that game 3-1 and are 3-7 since. Rolle was fined $7,500 for the play, but it appears Brunell and the Jaguars paid the bigger penalty. Jaguar Coach Tom Coughlin admits the hit adversely affected his team: “We didn’t function as well as we had been going in.”

Monday’s headline: “Once Again, Titans Rolle”

*

SAN DIEGO AT KANSAS CITY

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2.

The line: Off.

Quick slant: Hobbling to the finish.

Plot: Marty Schottenheimer returns to Kansas City, scans the old place and what does he find? Two teams resembling shells of their former selves. Schottenheimer’s Chargers, once 6-1, have lost five of seven games and quarterback Drew Brees hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in a month. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have blown out an offensive backfield -- fullback Tony Richardson is on injured reserve and Priest Holmes is doubtful because of a hip injury. “I would say there’s a good chance it’s over,” Coach Dick Vermeil said. He was talking about Holmes’ season. And probably the Chiefs’ as well.

Monday’s headline: “Schottenheimer Wins Shell Game”

*

NEW ORLEANS AT CINCINNATI

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: New Orleans by 7.

Quick slant: Ebenezer Scrooge, Carson Palmer see their futures, shudder mightily.

Plot: Sorry to throw a wet blanket over Palmer’s Heisman Trophy celebration, but after the Bengals lose to the Saints on Sunday, Cincinnati will have the No. 1 pick in the 2003 draft. Oh, right. Party over. Jon Kitna, the current Cincinnati quarterback, could have warned Palmer to run, save yourself, it’s too late for me -- but instead opted for: “As an organization, we don’t expect to win.... Until you expect to win and do the things that are necessary to win -- until you give your players reason for optimism -- you’re going to have a tough time.” Well said. Reminder: It’s still not too late to tank the Senior Bowl.

Monday’s headline: “Bengals Ghosts of Laughingstock Present”

*

ST. LOUIS AT SEATTLE

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m.

The line: Seattle by 1.

Quick slant: Next year’s quarterback controversies today.

Plot: Sneak previews for 2003: St. Louis Coach Mike Martz tries to decide between Kurt Warner and Marc Bulger as his No. 1 quarterback, Seattle coach-to-be-named tries to decide between Trent Dilfer and Matt Hasselbeck. Most amazing stat of 2002: As starting quarterbacks for the Rams, Warner is 0-6 and Bulger is 6-0. Less remarkable, but still worth noting: Hasselbeck is 4-5 with a very bad defense since replacing the injured Dilfer in October. Hasselbeck ranks fifth in the NFC with an 85.5 passer rating -- ahead of Michael Vick and Aaron Brooks. Too bad for Mike Holmgren this didn’t happen sooner.

Monday’s headline: “Bulger Still Undefeated, Rams Still Under .500”

*

DENVER AT OAKLAND

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 2.

The line: Oakland by 4.

The slant: Gannon tries to make up for lost time.

Plot: Last Sunday in Miami, the Dolphins, playing to preserve the honor of Dan Marino, limited Rich Gannon to 204 yards to take a bite out of Gannon’s pursuit of Marino’s single-season passing record. Gannon now must average 338 yards over the Raiders’ last two games to break Marino’s mark of 5,084 yards -- while maneuvering Oakland into the playoffs, no longer a sure thing after the loss to the Dolphins. With a 2-0 finish, Denver still can win the AFC West title, but the Bronco defense yields a 64.4 completion percentage. Good news for Oakland, better news for Gannon.

Monday’s headline: “Raiders, Gannon Complete First of Two Comebacks”

*

CLEVELAND AT BALTIMORE

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

The line: Baltimore by 3

Quick slant: Two 7-7 elevens.

Plot: The game of the year, if you’re looking for symbolism in this 16-week-long toast to mediocrity. Cleveland, supposedly a team on the rise under Butch Davis, and Baltimore, supposedly a team shattered by salary-cap attrition, are both at the same point at this late stage in the season: 7-7 and very much in the running for the AFC North title. In fact, if Pittsburgh loses to Tampa Bay on Monday and the ravaged Ravens sweep their last two games against Cleveland and Pittsburgh, Baltimore will own first place. The Browns blew a 16-point lead in a 28-23 loss to the Colts last Sunday but that was at home. On the road, they’re 5-2.

Monday’s headline: “Browns 7, Ravens 7”

*

N.Y. JETS AT NEW ENGLAND

Kickoff: Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

The line: New England by 4.

Quick slant: So they gave Chrebet the damn ball. See what happens?

Plot: Before last Sunday in Chicago, the Jets were riding a 5-1 run and wide receiver Wayne Chrebet was none too happy about it, whining about not getting the ball enough. Hmm, maybe the old vet has a point, the Jets thought, so they gave him the ball, over the middle, in the final 75 seconds of a must-win game, with the Jets down by seven. Chrebet tried to hurdle four Bear defenders, fumbled the ball in the process ... and, class, why weren’t we passing the ball to Mr. Chrebet again? Now the Jets must beat the Patriots in New England. In New Jersey, the Jets lost to the Patriots, 44-7.

Monday’s headline: “Jets’ Playoff Hopes Wayne”

*

PITTSBURGH AT TAMPA BAY

Kickoff: Monday, 6 p.m.

TV: Channel 7.

The line: Tampa Bay by 4 1/2.

Quick slant: Still, you know, Flowers has a point.

Plot: Old insults, like holiday fruitcake, never die -- they continue to make the rounds until somebody gets fed up and decides to do something about it. So Tampa Bay’s Warren Sapp has been popping off about Lee Flowers’ year-old sound bite in which the Pittsburgh safety dismissed the Buccaneers as “paper champions.” Sapp says Flowers “doesn’t have the credentials to talk [trash], so I wonder where it’s coming from. You would never know that man unless he gets on TV and they put his name under his face.” But, really, what has Tampa Bay won? Nothing of note. Up to and including this game.

Tuesday’s headline: “On Paper, Buccaneers Still Aren’t Champions”