WEEK 17 BREAKDOWN

ARIZONA AT DENVER

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

The line: Denver by 11.

Quick slant: Jake Plummer auditions in Denver.

Plot: Chances are Plummer, a free agent after this season, will be playing quarterback somewhere besides Arizona in 2003. Chances are Brian Griese, benched by Coach Mike Shanahan for this must-win game for the Broncos, won’t be starting in Denver in 2003. Plummer can help himself with an upbeat performance at the end of a forgettable season, maybe even get the Broncos interested in the process. For the short term, Denver needs 37-year-old Steve Beuerlein to grind out a win -- and then get enough outside help to grab a wild card. For Beuerlein, the future is now. For Griese, the future is the bench.

Monday’s headline: “Beuerlein Earns Another Start”

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ATLANTA AT CLEVELAND

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11.

The line: Atlanta by 2 1/2.

Quick slant: Wild card to the winner.

Plot: Atlanta went 7-0-1 in between losses to Tampa Bay. Cleveland is 6-3 since mid-October. So what are the Falcons and the Browns doing here, heading into the regular season’s final weekend with nothing clinched except holiday egg nog tainted with angst? Well, the Falcons had a bit of a problem with the NFC North, losing to Green Bay and Chicago. The Browns couldn’t put anybody away at home, losing games at Browns Stadium to Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Carolina and Indianapolis. Cleveland has the home field Sunday. Advantage to Atlanta.

Monday’s headline: “Browns Just Miss Playoffs; Dwayne Rudd: ‘My Bad’ ”

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BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Pittsburgh by 7 1/2.

Quick slant: No paper champions here.

Plot: In the span of four remarkable quarters Monday night, Steeler safety Lee Flowers went from loud-mouthed loose cannon to sage, prophet, guru and a good man to consult before your next trip to Las Vegas. Flowers wouldn’t back down from his year-old “paper champions” assessment of the Buccaneers, much to the initial chagrin of Steeler teammates and fans, but then there was the final score from Tampa: Steelers 17, Buccaneers 7. The win clinched the AFC North championship for the Steelers, who can kick back here unless the Raiders or Titans lose and the AFC’s No. 2 seeding becomes available.

Monday’s headline: “Flowers Pittsburgh Man of the Year”

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CAROLINA AT NEW ORLEANS

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: New Orleans by 7.

Quick slant: Hard to go marching anywhere after you’ve shot yourself in both feet.

Plot: Name an NFL playoff team that has lost games to Cincinnati, Detroit and Minnesota (combined record: 10-35) this season. There isn’t one, which pretty much illustrates the predicament the Saints find themselves in this weekend after back-to-back losses to the Vikings and the Bengals. (The Detroit loss came in September, shortly after back-to-back victories over Tampa Bay and Green Bay.) If the Giants beat the Eagles on Saturday, the Saints will need help to finagle the final NFC wild card. Also, Aaron Brooks (0 for his last 11 passes) had better step up.

Monday’s headline: “No Help For Those Who Couldn’t Help Themselves”

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CINCINNATI AT BUFFALO

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Buffalo by 7.

Quick slant: Will the real Drew Bledsoe make one last stand?

Plot: Eric Moulds and Peerless Price enter this game chasing Buffalo’s single-season receptions record of 94, set by Moulds in 2000. Moulds has 91 catches for 1,212 yards; Price has 89 catches for 1,195. With five more yards by Price, the Bills will become the 10th team to feature two 1,200-yard receivers in the same season. Of course, all of this becomes a moot point if Bledsoe doesn’t shake his late-season slump. Bledsoe had two interceptions and the Bills had six turnovers in a 10-0 loss at Green Bay. Then again, the Bengals provide the opposition Sunday. Should be a record-setting day in Buffalo.

Monday’s headline: “Bledsoe Ends Bengal Winning Streak at One”

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DALLAS AT WASHINGTON

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Washington by 6 1/2.

Quick slant: Three years of Campo makes for strange bedfellows.

Plot: While Dave Campo was drawing up his next-to-last game plan as coach of the Cowboys last week, Dallas owner Jerry Jones was spending five hours talking football in a less-than-top-secret meeting with bored-legend-turned-ESPN-analyst Bill Parcells. Thus inspired, Campo went out and lost, 27-3, at home to Philadelphia. In the interim, what in the world can Jones and Parcells be thinking? Is this really a matchup that cries “great long-run potential”? Would Texas have to annex Arkansas to find enough room for both these egos? Then again, Campo is 15-32. You know, it might be worth a try.

Monday’s headline: “Spurrier Can’t Wait to Go Tuna Fishin’ ”

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GREEN BAY AT N.Y. JETS

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 11.

The line: New York by 1.

The slant: Home-field advantage or one more week of football? Who wants it more?

Plot: Should the Eagles lose to the Giants on Saturday, this game in the Meadowlands will provide a fascinating study into the human condition. The Packers would then have the chance to clinch home-field advantage through the NFC playoffs with a win -- and the Packers have never lost a playoff game at Lambeau Field. But the Jets would need to win just to keep their playoff hopes alive. Which desire is strongest -- comfort or survival? I think we know the answer to that, which is why the Jets are favored.

Monday’s headline: “Even With Chrebet, Jets Manage to Hold On”

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JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m.

The line: Off.

Quick slant: Eight is enough.

Plot: Tom Coughlin winds down his eighth season as the only coach the Jaguars have had, and it might be time for a different face behind the whistle. Coughlin is 19-28 in the last three seasons, and he was booed by Jacksonville fans last Sunday while a plane circled overhead dragging a sign that read, simply, “Coughlin?” If Coughlin is coaching for his job, the Colts are in no position to toss out any favors. Last week’s home debacle against the Giants means the Colts must win Sunday to clinch a wild card. Unless the next six AFC wild-card contenders also lose. Considering this season, it could happen.

Monday’s headline: “Colts Put Coughlin Out of His Misery”

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KANSAS CITY AT OAKLAND

Kickoff: Saturday, 2 p.m.

TV: Channel 2.

The line: Oakland by 7.

Quick slant: Raiders contemplate the value of home-field advantage.

Plot: To make the playoffs, the Chiefs must win at Oakland and have five teams seeded ahead of them lose. (Chief offense to Chief defense: Thanks a lot, pals.) The Raiders have a much simpler game plan: Win and they clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. And what would that be worth? Last season, it might have cost the Raiders the Super Bowl -- instead their championship aspirations got buried in the New England snow. On the other hand, Oakland had the home field in 2000 and lost the AFC final to Baltimore. On the other hand, Tony Siragusa and Bobby Hoying are both gone.

Sunday’s headline: “Road to Super Bowl Runs Through Black Hole”

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MIAMI AT NEW ENGLAND

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2.

The line: Pick.

Quick slant: The hard road, twice traveled.

Plot: Memories have faded, along with the Dolphins and the Patriots, so deep research is required. Yes, it says here that Miami was once 5-1 and New England 3-0 during this season. Hard to imagine considering recent events, such as Miami losing four consecutive road games, including two this month to Buffalo and Minnesota, and New England unraveling at home against the Jets on national TV. The result is this: Miami must win on the road to clinch the AFC East title, New England must win and have Green Bay defeat the Jets to clinch the playoffs. It should never have come to this, but that is the AFC in 2002.

Monday’s headline: “Williams Gains 1,800 Yards, Misses Playoffs”

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MINNESOTA AT DETROIT

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Minnesota by 3 1/2.

Quick slant: The New Orleans Saints’ worst enemies. Excluding the New Orleans Saints.

Plot: The Vikings and the Lions are a combined 8-22, yet they have victories over two common opponents. Minnesota and Detroit have beaten Chicago (join the club) and New Orleans (Jim Haslett’s December insomnia explained). If the Saints miss the playoffs, the Vikings and Lions will at least be able to say they spoiled somebody’s season besides their own. As for this one, the Vikings are coming off consecutive victories over New Orleans and Miami -- much better condition than the Lions, 0-7 since Nov. 3. But the Vikings are 1-6 on the road, giving the Lions reason to suit up.

Monday’s headline: “Vikings Win Third Straight; Twins Call it ‘Amazing’ ”

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PHILADELPHIA AT N.Y. GIANTS

Kickoff: Saturday, 10:30 a.m.

TV: Channel 11.

The line: Philadelphia by 2.

Quick slant: Saints, Falcons, Packers will be watching with keen interest.

Plot: Sunday assignments for the Saints, Falcons and Packers will be set after the outcome of this one. If the Eagles win, the Packers will have no chance for the NFC’s No. 1 seeding -- the Jets are rooting against the Giants -- and the Falcons will clinch one wild card with the Saints going into their game against Carolina knowing a victory will earn them the other. If the Giants win, the Packers will play for home-field advantage Sunday against the Jets, the Giants clinch a wild card and the Saints will be eliminated if the Falcons win at Cleveland. A.J. Feeley, Kerry Collins: It’s all yours.

Sunday’s headline: “Eagles, First Domino Fall”

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SEATTLE AT SAN DIEGO

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

The line: San Diego by 3.

Quick slant: Can you spot the team still in contention?

Plot: Seattle has a young quarterback who has found his stride, winning four of his last seven starts, including his last two in a row. San Diego has a young quarterback who has forgotten how to make big plays, resulting in three consecutive defeats and a 2-6 record down the stretch. So which team is already planning for 2003 and which is playing for a possible wild card? Amazingly, the Chargers are the team that can still advance to the postseason -- with a win and a lot of help. That’s because the Chargers once were 6-1. But then they hit their open date, and have looked cold and rusty ever since.

Monday’s headline: “Bye Bye Chargers”

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SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS

Kickoff: Monday, 6 p.m.

TV: Channel 7.

The line: Off.

Quick slant: Where have you gone, Eric Crouch?

Plot: As the 49ers play out the schedule trying not get anyone important hurt before the playoffs, the Rams would like to close a rotten season on an up note -- meaning they find someone to play quarterback between now and Monday. Kurt Warner is done for the season, Marc Bulger has three compression fractures in his back and Jamie Martin has a sore knee. Scott Covington, a Bengal reject, took all the snaps in practice Thursday and will start if Martin can’t. After that, it’s “emergency quarterback” Marshall Faulk. Good thing the season ends Monday.

Tuesday’s headline: “Warner, Bulger Hope to Be Ready by September”

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TAMPA BAY AT CHICAGO

Kickoff: Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

The line: Off.

Quick slant: Shaun King versus Henry Burriss, anyone?

Plot: Tampa Bay’s Brad Johnson has an aching back. Chicago’s Chris Chandler suffered the fifth concussion of his career last week. So what’s stopping the quarterback matchup of the millennium, King versus Burriss, which very well could send the concept of the forward pass back 90 years? Sadly, Buccaneer Coach Jon Gruden decided to play spoiler, announcing that Rob Johnson will start if Brad can’t go. King and Burriss both played last week. King was nine for 26 for 73 yards, his first pass intercepted and returned for a score. Burriss was eight for 22 for 50 yards. A great, great loss for science.

Monday’s headline: “Buccaneers Win, Even Complete Some Passes”

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TENNESSEE AT HOUSTON

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Tennessee by 8 1/2.

Quick slant: Prodigal traitors return.

Plot: It’s better now for Houston, seeing that the city has a new NFL team capable of great things: beating Dallas in its first game, winning three more with a revolutionary no-offensive-line formation, getting more players voted into the Pro Bowl than the Titans, a.k.a. the former Houston Oilers. But Houston remains bitter about the Oiler/Titan departure for Tennessee after 1996 and a local entrepreneur is selling T-shirts sporting a helmet with an outhouse logo and the inscription, “Tennessee Hillbillies -- Y’all don’t come back here, ya hear?” Oh, but they are coming. Take the Hillbillies and the points.

Monday’s headline: “Titans Leave Houston in Ruins Again”