The forecast

The Grammys have moved to New York this year, but the energy in classical music has leaked west, and, that could be reflected in the classical Grammys.

Best Classical Album: Michael Tilson Thomas’ searing rendition of Mahler’s Sixth Symphony, recorded at emotionally scorching live performances with the San Francisco Symphony between Sept. 12 and Sept. 15, 2001, deserves top honors if the Grammys dare choose substance over beauty (Renee Fleming singing bel canto arias) or playing it safe (the Takacs Quartet’s excellent but not revelatory account of Beethoven’s middle-period string quartets).

Best Orchestral Performance: This time MTT’s Mahler Six challenges such lesser, if still worthy, opponents as Dvorak’s merry Slavonic Dances or Shostakovich’s wide-screen, historical epic of a Symphony, the 11th.

Best Opera Recording: All of the choices are first-rate, but “Idomeneo,” starring Ian Bostridge and Lorraine Hunt Lieberson, is the finest recording Mozart’s early opera has ever received.

Best Instrumental Soloist Performance (Without Orchestra): Murray Perahia’s elegant, exacting playing of the Chopin Etudes stands out, and the pianist could walk home with a Grammy double whammy, because his Bach concerto recording is also a top pick for instrumental soloist with orchestra.

Best Contemporary Composition: John Adams’ lavish symphonic score “Naive and Sentimental Music,” stunningly performed by the Los Angeles Philharmonic under Esa-Pekka Salonen, has strong competition but is super-strong music.

Best Classical Crossover: The Kronos Quartet’s uniquely sweeping gambol through Mexican music, “Nuevo,” makes a statement in a category in which statements are rare.

-- Mark Swed