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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

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PIVOTAL PLAYER

* Running back Corey Dillon. Tom Brady, New England’s quarterback, calls him the best running back in the league and that’s difficult to argue. He was the NFL’s third-leading rusher this season, with 1,635 yards. And he proved Sunday he has anti-freeze in his veins, gaining 144 yards in the snow to power the Patriots past Indianapolis. A thigh injury kept him out of the first Pittsburgh game, so he’s itching for a chance to play the Steelers.

FUTURE LOS ANGELES EXPANSION PICK

* Running back Patrick Pass. A seventh-round pick from Georgia in 2000, Pass has the build of a fullback and the shifty ability of a tailback. He has good hands too. With 28 catches this season, he doubled his combined production of the last three. He’s also an underrated special-teams player.

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WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL WIN

* They know how to win close games, which they have proven the last three seasons.Their loss at Pittsburgh on Halloween was totally out of character. For them, the game spun out of control in the last five minutes of the first quarter. They lost cornerback Ty Law for the season and then, after a rapid-fire series of mistakes, had a 3-0 lead turn into a 21-3 deficit. Usually, the Patriots can respond to a first punch. Not on that day, though. It’s unlikely they’ll have another one of those games.

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WHY THE PATRIOTS WILL LOSE

* The athletic front seven of the Steelers, combined with the Terrible Towel-swirling energy at Heinz Field, will make it too difficult for New England’s solid-but-not-outstanding offensive line to win the battle up front, either in pass protection or run-blocking.

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X-FACTOR

* Will Richard Seymour be back? The 6-foot-6, 310-pound defensive tackle sat out Sunday’s game against Indianapolis. If he can play, he could cause problems for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger because of his ability to collapse the pocket. Often, Seymour attracts double teams, which creates opportunities for the defensive linemen flanking him.

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BREAKOUT OFFENSIVE PLAYER

* Receiver David Givens. In a game against the tough, physical Steelers, Givens should play a key role. He’s New England’s most aggressive receiver and fashions his game after Pittsburgh receiver Hines Ward’s. Because opponents usually worry more about the deep threat Deion Branch presents, there are opportunities aplenty for Givens to catch passes underneath.

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BREAKOUT DEFENSIVE PLAYER

* Linebacker Ted Johnson. Pittsburgh likes to run up the middle with Jerome Bettis. In the Patriots’ two-gap system, the defensive line’s job is to occupy the offensive front and let the inside linebackers run free to make plays. Johnson has had a renaissance this season. In his 10th season, he has made 112 tackles, his most since 1998. In his last game against the Steelers, he registered 14 tackles, nine solos.

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GOAT IN WAITING

* Dillon. Is another turnover just around the corner? He has fumbled five times this season, sometimes after minimal contact. He has been walking around squeezing a handball lately to strengthen his grip. One problem is, he always carries the ball in his left hand -- no matter which side the defenders are on -- so he can use his right hand and forearm as a sledgehammer.

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UNDER THIS COACHING REGIME

* Bill Belichick is 8-1 in postseason games. If he wins another, he’ll tie the NFL-best postseason record of Vince Lombardi. Should Belichick win a third Lombardi Trophy this year, he’ll have the best postseason record of any coach in league history.

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-- Sam Farmer

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