Golden Globes predictions ... and, yes, ‘Hamilton’ is eligible
You might have thought the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. would have learned something after being roasted last year for classifying Lulu Wang’s tender “The Farewell,” an American-made movie about a Chinese American woman saying goodbye to her grandmother, as a “foreign language film.”
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But this is the HFPA, a group that, laughably, given its foreign press title, has little regard for global cinema and has consistently displayed an unwillingness to grapple with the context found in multicultural and multilingual stories. It wasn’t surprising that the HFPA yet again recently proved tone deaf, designating Lee Isaac Chung’s “Minari” as a foreign film, even though it was American-made by an American director and concerns nothing less than a family pursuing the American dream on a farm in Arkansas.
So even though “Minari” stands as one of the year’s best movies (one day soon, you’ll have the chance to see it, I promise), it won’t be allowed to compete for the Golden Globes’ best drama prize, though its actors are eligible in the main categories. Given the outcry, I’d expect the HFPA to finally clarify the rule next year, allowing American-made films to compete for their best picture categories, no matter what language they are in. But with this group, who knows? Meanwhile, here’s a look at what they might go for when nominations are announced Feb. 3.
MOTION PICTURE DRAMA
“One Night in Miami”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7"
Next up: “Promising Young Woman,” “The United States vs. Billie Holiday,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “The Father,” “News of the World,” “Da 5 Bloods”
Two late-arriving historical dramas — “Billie Holiday” and “Judas and the Black Messiah,” both due in February — could shake up a field dominated by Netflix titles. I’d guess one of them might sneak in ahead of “Mank” or “Chicago 7.” It’s also possible voters will go for the Tom Hanks-led western, “News of the World.”
LEAD ACTRESS DRAMA
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Sophia Loren, “The Life Ahead”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Up next: Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”; Kate Winslet, “Ammonite”; Amy Adams, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Winslet has four Globes from 11 nominations; Adams has won twice and been nominated nine times. But their movies underwhelmed, and the HFPA probably isn’t going to pass up a chance to fete Loren in a late-career tearjerker.
LEAD ACTOR DRAMA
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Delroy Lindo, “Da 5 Bloods”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Up next: Steven Yeun, “Minari”; Tom Hanks, “News of the World”; Kingsley Ben-Adir, “One Night in Miami”;
Tahar Rahim, “The Mauritanian”; Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”; Ben Affleck, “The Way Back”
That’s a formidable five potential nominees. Yeun’s deserving too, though his understated turn in “Minari” isn’t as showy as those of his competitors. Since this is a group that gave “Bohemian Rhapsody” best picture, I’m not confident that subtlety goes over big.
MOTION PICTURE MUSICAL/COMEDY
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
“On the Rocks”
Up next: “Let Them All Talk,” “French Exit,” “Emma,” “The Personal History of David Copperfield,” “The King of Staten Island”
“Hamilton”? Yes, even though it’s not eligible for the Oscars because it’s a recorded performance, the HFPA’s nutty rules allow the Globes to embrace Lin-Manuel Miranda’s musical. Raise a glass to freedom!
LEAD ACTRESS MUSICAL/COMEDY
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Meryl Streep, “The Prom”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Exit”
Rashida Jones, “On the Rocks”
Cristin Milioti, “Palm Springs”
Up next: Anya Taylor-Joy, “Emma”; Emily Blunt, “Wild Mountain Thyme”; Meryl Streep, “Let Them All Talk”; Millie Bobby Brown, “Enola Holmes”
Historically, HFPA members have indulged their love of musicals, save for “Cats” last year, proving that even they have some standards, I guess. That enthusiasm should translate into a fair amount of love for “The Prom,” Ryan Murphy’s zazz-filled Broadway adaptation, including the requisite salute to 32-time(!) Globe nominee Streep.
LEAD ACTOR MUSICAL/COMEDY
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs”
Leslie Odom Jr., “Hamilton”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”
Dev Patel, “The Personal History of David Copperfield”
Up next: Pete Davidson, “The King of Staten Island”; James Corden, “The Prom”; Will Ferrell, “Eurovision Song Contest”
Will the “Hamilton” love extend to its cast? I’d think they’d want to invite Miranda. Aaron Burr, sir? Not sure. But Odom will assuredly earn a supporting actor drama nod for his terrific portrayal of Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami.”
DRAMA TV SERIES
Next up: ""Perry Mason,” “Ratched,” “The Boys,” “Ozark,” “P-Valley”
Emmy favorite “Ozark” has been bypassed every season, and I don’t see why the HFPA would jump aboard the bandwagon now, not when it could invite Baby Yoda (Grogu, if you must) to the party. Just hide the frog eggs.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION DRAMA
Emma Corrin, “The Crown”
Olivia Colman, “The Crown”
Jurnee Smollett, “Lovecraft Country”
Sarah Paulson, “Ratched”
Phoebe Dynevor, “Bridgerton”
Up next: Laura Linney, “Ozark”; Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”; Caitriona Balfe, “Outlander”
Colman won last year as Elizabeth. Who better than Corrin, who has won raves as Lady Di, to succeed her?
LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION DRAMA
Matthew Rhys, “Perry Mason”
Josh O’Connor, “The Crown”
Jonathan Majors, “Lovecraft Country”
Regé-Jean Page, “Bridgerton”
Pedro Pascal, “The Mandalorian”
Up next: Jason Bateman, “Ozark”; Antony Starr, “The Boys”; Al Pacino, “Hunters”; Tobias Menzies, “The Crown”
Pascal spends his “Mandalorian” gig mostly in a recording booth and occasionally underneath all that Beskar armor. But he did break the Mandalorian Code and remove his helmet twice this season, including that emotionally shattering farewell scene in the finale. I don’t know if that’s enough for the HFPA to nominate him, but, weeks later, I still haven’t recovered.
COMEDY TV SERIES
“What We Do in the Shadows”
“The Flight Attendant”
Next up: “The Great,” “Insecure,” “The Politician,” “Never Have I Ever”
“Fleabag,” “Maisel,” “Barry” and “The Kominsky Method” are MIA, leaving room for ... maybe “Schitt’s Creek” to earn its first nomination? (Talk about being late to the party.) “Ramy” and “What We Do in the Shadows” were also overlooked last year, as the HFPA picked “The Politician” as its best freshman show. With so many openings, these wrongs can be corrected this year.
LEAD ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION COMEDY
Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”
Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant”
Elle Fanning, “The Great”
Jane Levy, “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist”
Lily Collins, “Emily in Paris”
Next up: Issa Rae, “Insecure”; Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me”
Like her show, O’Hara has never been nominated, and the Emmy winner stands as something of a favorite here, though Cuoco, another long-ignored contender, could ultimately prevail for her entertaining new HBO comedy-mystery.
LEAD ACTOR IN A TELEVISION COMEDY
Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
Eugene Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”
Ramy Youssef, “Ramy”
Ben Platt, “The Politician”
Matt Berry, “What We Do in the Shadows”
Next up: Don Cheadle, “Black Monday”; Kayvan Novak, “What We Do in the Shadows”; Asa Butterfield, “Sex Education”; Ricky Gervais, “After Life”
Youssef’s surprise win was a highlight of last year’s show ... and if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
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