Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 5

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 10-5 (.667); season 41-22 (.651). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-7 (.533); season 31-32 (.492).

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New England (3-1) at Cleveland (0-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Patriots 24, Browns 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Patriots by 10 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Patriots are getting Tom Brady back, and the Browns are the NFL’s only winless team. But this game figures to be closer than most people might suspect.

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Tennessee (1-3) at Miami (1-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Titans 21, Dolphins 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Dolphins by 4. O/U: 43.

If the Titans can control the clock by running DeMarco Murray and keep the heat off Marcus Mariota, they can beat a Dolphins team that struggles to convert third downs.

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Houston (3-1) at Minnesota (4-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Vikings 23, Texans 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Vikings by 7. O/U: 40.

The Vikings are rolling, with Sam Bradford gaining confidence by the week and backed by a smothering defense. That defense will force Brock Osweiler into mistakes.

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N.Y. Jets (1-3) at Pittsburgh (3-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 34, Jets 21

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Steelers by 7. O/U: 48.

The Steelers, coming off a throttling of Kansas City, have a balanced offensive attack. Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been picked off nine times in two games.

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Washington (2-2) at Baltimore (3-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Ravens 27, Redskins 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Ravens by 4. O/U: 45.

The Ravens should be able to run on a soft Redskins defensive front. Meanwhile, Baltimore’s defense will turn up the heat on Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins.

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Philadelphia (3-0) at Detroit (1-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Eagles 28, Lions 24

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Eagles by 3 1/2. O/U: 46.

The Eagles are rested after their early bye, and Carson Wentz is remarkably poised for a rookie. The Lions have lost three in a row by one, seven and three points. Not finishers.

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Chicago (1-3) at Indianapolis (1-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bears 20, Colts 17

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Colts by 5. O/U: 48.

The Colts are experimenting with playing a game the week after traveling to London. Tough turnaround. The Bears got a confidence boost by beating Detroit.

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Atlanta (3-1) at Denver (4-0)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Broncos 31, Falcons 28

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Broncos by 6. O/U: 47.

Like last season’s Super Bowl, this game features a high-octane offense against a stifling Denver defense. Give the Broncos the edge at home, no matter who’s at quarterback.

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Cincinnati (2-2) at Dallas (3-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Cowboys 23, Bengals 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Bengals by 1. O/U: 45.

Cowboys rookie Ezekiel Elliott leads the league in rushing, but he’s facing a Cincinnati defense that hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher or TD on the ground. Still, Cowboys hang on.

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Buffalo (2-2) at L.A. Rams (3-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Rams 20, Bills 14

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Rams by 2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Even though their offensive line is struggling, and teams are loading up to stonewall running back Todd Gurley, the Rams are figuring out how to win games in the fourth quarter.

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San Diego (1-3) at Oakland (3-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Raiders 24, Chargers 21

TV: None. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Raiders by 3 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

The Raiders are not making the mistakes that used to impale them. Meanwhile, the Chargers seem to fritter away big leads on a weekly basis. Until that changes…

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N.Y. Giants (2-2) at Green Bay (2-1)

Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

Giants 27, Packers 24

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Packers by 6 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The well-rested Packers are at home and facing a team coming off a loss and a short week. Still, the Giants have the receivers to exploit a soft Packers secondary.

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Tampa Bay (1-3) at Carolina (1-3)

Monday, 5:30 p.m.

Buccaneers 34, Panthers 27

TV: ESPN.

Line: Off board. O/U: Off board.

Atlanta exposed some big problems in Carolina’s defense, and with Cam Newton (concussion) uncertain to play, look for Tampa Bay to get back on track on road.