Sam Farmer’s NFL picks for Week 12

San Francisco 49ers tight end Ross Dwelley (82) scores against the Arizona Cardinals during the game on Sunday in Santa Clara.
(John Hefti / Associated Press)

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 9-5 (.643); season 98-63-1 (.609). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-5 (.643); season 81-78-3 (.509). Arizona, Chargers, Kansas City and Minnesota have the week off. Times are Pacific.

DEN (3-7) at BUF (7-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Bills 27, Broncos 21


TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Bills by 4. O/U: 371/2.

Denver QB Brandon Allen doesn’t scare the Bills, who have a stifling pass defense. The Broncos will look to keep the ball on the ground. The Bills should be able to score enough to keep them at bay.

PIT (5-5) at CIN (0-10)


Sunday, 10 a.m.

Steelers 20, Bengals 10

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Steelers by 61/2. O/U: 381/2.


The Steelers were flat as Kansas last week, ending a four-game winning streak. Good thing for them they’re facing the winless Bengals, who have scored 17 or fewer in eight of 10 losses.

OAK (6-4) at NYJ (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Jets 24, Raiders 21


TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 461/2.

The Raiders have won three in a row but are 1-3 on the road this season. It’s always tough for West Coast teams to play in Eastern Time, and Josh Jacobs will be facing a rock-solid Jets’ run defense.

CAR (5-5) at NO (8-2)


Sunday, 10 a.m.

Panthers 24, Saints 23

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Saints by 91/2. O/U: 47.


Panthers have lost three of four, and the glow is off Kyle Allen, who was picked off four times last week. But Carolina is the more desperate team — it’s win or else — and that might carry the day.

MIA (2-8) at CLE (4-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Browns 27, Dolphins 17


TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Browns by 101/2. O/U: 441/2.

Browns will bash a vulnerable Dolphins defense by bashing Nick Chubb up the middle. That should open up the offense for Baker Mayfield. The Dolphins will have to rely on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s magic.

SEA (8-2) at PHI (5-5)


Sunday, 10 a.m.

Seahwks 27, Eagles 24

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Eagles by 1. O/U: 48.


The Seahawks are rested and ready to crank up the run vs. the Eagles, setting up the play-action game for Russell Wilson. The biggest challenge for Seattle: Keeping tight end Zach Ertz in check.

TB (3-7) at ATL (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Falcons 27, Buccaneers 24


TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Falcons by 4. O/U: 51.

Should be passing yards aplenty in this one, as both defenses are vulnerable. While the Buccaneers have lost five of six, the Falcons have righted the ship with back-to-back NFC South blowouts.

NYG (2-8) at CHI (4-6)


Sunday, 10 a.m.

Giants 21, Bears 14

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Bears by 61/2. O/U: 401/2.


The Bears couldn’t get to Jared Goff, and that means Daniel Jones has a chance to escape unscathed. Watch for him to go to his tight ends early and often. Chicago, meanwhile, is struggling at quarterback.

DET (3-6-1) at WAS (1-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Redskins 17, Lions 13


TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Lions by 31/2. O/U: 411/2.

This is a grim one. Dwayne Haskins hasn’t given the Redskins a lot of reasons to get excited, but this is a Detroit team without Matthew Stafford, and Jeff Driskel doesn’t scare many people.

JAC (4-6) at TEN (5-5)


Sunday, 1 p.m.

Titans 24, Jaguars 20

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Titans by 3. O/U: 42.


Derrick Henry has to be rubbing his hands thinking of this Jacksonville defense, which is lousy against the run. The Titans have a playoff spot in their crosshairs, and they’re at home.

DAL (6-4) at NE (9-1)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

Patriots 31, Cowboys 24


TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Patriots by 61/2. O/U: 451/2.

Tom Brady is due for a bounce-back game after a lackluster outing against Philadelphia. The Cowboys have been impressive in stretches this season, but winning in Foxborough is a tall order.

GB (8-2) at SF (9-1)


Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

49ers 28, Packers 27

TV: Channel 4.

Line: 49ers by 3. O/U: 48.


The Packers are rested, and that should help them. But the 49ers are fueled by a defense that can get to the quarterback, and Jimmy Garoppolo can do just enough to hang on for a win.

BAL (8-2) at LAR (6-4)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Ravens 27, Rams 23



Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 461/2.

Ravens’ option offense is a huge test for Rams’ defense, which has played terrific since trading for Jalen Ramsey. Offensively, the Rams are searching for that spark. Baltimore doesn’t have to search.