UCLA keeps beating the odds with amazing Pac-12 victories
On Saturday, UCLA (+10) won at Colorado 70-63, beating the spread by 17 points. That finished a season sweep of the highly regarded Buffaloes, made it six outright upsets in league play and lifted the Bruins to 8-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last 11 games.
Those victories pushed UCLA onto the NCAA tournament bubble, according to Joe Lunardi of ESPN. That wouldn’t have seemed possible after a 77-74 home loss to Cal State Fullerton as a 16-point favorite in late December.
UCLA must remain focused to earn a bid to the tournament and continue cashing tickets against a slow-reacting market. This week the Bruins host Arizona State on Thursday and Arizona on Saturday before finishing the regular season March 7 at USC.
The Trojans backtracked onto the bubble after getting swept at Colorado and at Utah. USC covered the spread Thursday in a 70-66 loss at Boulder getting 9.5 points. But an ugly 79-65 loss Sunday in Salt Lake City at +1 is going to sting on the resume.
That point-spread split leaves USC at 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games. Since playing each other Jan. 11, USC and UCLA are a combined 17-7 against the market.
— In the NBA, the Lakers (-7.5) failed to cover in Sunday’s 114-112 thriller over the Boston Celtics. The victory helped solidify the Lakers’ hold on the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference. Even with the non-cover, the Lakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and a respectable 29-25-1 ATS for the season despite the height of their daily hurdles.
The Lakers have two nationally televised meetings with Zion Williamson and the New Orleans Pelicans this week. They square off Tuesday at Staples Center (7 p.m., TNT) and Sunday in New Orleans (5 p.m., ESPN). In their last 11 games with a healthy Williamson, the Pelicans are 8-3 straight up and ATS after beating Golden State 115-101 as 10-point favorites Sunday night.
— The Clippers were disappointing in a home loss Saturday to Sacramento, falling 112-103 as 8.5-point favorites. The Clippers have lost and failed to cover three straight games heading into Monday’s home game against Memphis. They’re 29-27 ATS for the season, which is a losing record for bettors because of the 10% vigorish on losses. In real money terms, the record is 29 wins, 29.7 losses.
— In the XFL, the Wildcats earned their first franchise victory in emphatic fashion, beating the D.C. Defenders 39-9 as eight-point underdogs. That’s a 38-point cover.
Quarterback Josh Johnson bounced back from a poor performance in a loss to Dallas with a stellar passing line of 18-25-0-278. Bettors should be aware that the victory margin was inflated by a massive 5-0 edge in turnovers. Total yardage was just 334-290 for the Wildcats, who will need to improve their ground game (only 56 yards on 2.2 per carry) to compete for the league title.
Through three outings, the Wildcats are 1-2 straight up and ATS, but is an even 1-1 both ways with Johnson on the field. The Wildcats play Saturday (11 a.m., ABC) on the road against the offensively challenged New York Guardians.
Jeff Fogle writes for VSiN, the sports betting network.
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