Close Race for Horse-of-the-Year Honors : Alysheba, Personal Ensign Lead the Field, but Others Could Make a Late Run

The 250 or so voters who will decide the horse-of-the-year title for 1988 must be thankful that there are some Breeders’ Cup races in early November that will help them fill out their ballots.

And if the fifth annual Breeders’ Cup, scheduled for Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs, is anything like the last 2 years, its results will do little more than confuse.

Last year, after Ferdinand, a horse who won only 4 of his 10 races, won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the voters were caught in a quandary between him and Theatrical. Theatrical, who won the Turf Stakes, faced a historical disadvantage--a grass horse trying to become horse of the year--and lost an election that was so close one voter could have swung it away from Ferdinand.

The year before, a victory by Turkoman in the Classic would have clinched the national title. The country’s best older male horse even after he lost, Turkoman couldn’t make up a 16-length difference in running second to Skywalker. Voters then overwhelmingly supported Lady’s Secret, the 5-year-old mare who won the Breeders’ Cup Distaff for her 8th major victory of the year. Still, there were many votes cast reluctantly for Lady’s Secret, only the fifth female to become horse of the year and a runner who lost 3 out of 4 starts against males.

This year, the horse-of-the-year contest is at first glance an either/or proposition, with Alysheba, the unquestioned leader of the male handicap division, and Personal Ensign, the all-winning 4-year-old filly, in the forefront. But should either or both of them lose their Breeders’ Cup races--Personal Ensign in the Distaff and Alysheba in the Classic--the door would open for 4 or 5 other candidates. It could result in a vote like last year’s, when Ferdinand was named on only 38% of the ballots.

For the first time, a barometer for horse-of-the-year voting is being supplied by Thoroughbred Racing Communications, an industry-supported group that has been polling about 45 media members on a weekly basis. Some of the voters in this poll also vote for horse of the year. The horse-of-the-year electorate roughly consists of 125 turf reporters, 90 representatives from the Daily Racing Form and 35 racing secretaries from most major tracks.

Personal Ensign led the poll for several weeks but was replaced at the top by Alysheba after he won the Woodward Handicap at Belmont.

In an ideal world, Alysheba and Personal Ensign would meet in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but that is not going to happen. Trainer Shug McGaughey plans to run Personal Ensign in the Distaff, which will not necessarily be an easy spot. Also scheduled to compete are Winning Colors, who lost to Personal Ensign in the Maskette when coming off a 3-month rest, and Goodbye Halo, another talented filly.

With Winning Colors’ handlers choosing another race for a Breeders’ Cup tuneup, Personal Ensign is expected to extend her streak to 12 in the Beldame Stakes at Belmont Oct. 16. Alysheba’s pre-Breeders’ Cup plans are unclear, but if he runs in the Meadowlands Cup Oct. 14, Cutlass Reality and the erratic Brian’s Time will be there trying for an upset.

The Woodward victory, because it came in New York, where he had never won before, created numerous Eastern supporters for Alysheba and added a patina to what was already an excellent record. The 4-year-old colt also has two major victories at Santa Anita and one at Monmouth Park in a 5-for-7 year.

Voters are only supposed to consider a horse’s annual record, but another victory at Churchill Downs by Alysheba, where he won the Kentucky Derby last year, would be so dramatic that it would easily overshadow Personal Ensign’s undefeated career. Technically, it is incorrect to include the six victories she posted as a 3-year-old when considering Personal Ensign’s credentials. But it has always been so: All Along’s Arc de Triomphe victory--a foreign race that’s not supposed to count--doubtless helped her become horse of the year in 1983, and 9-year-old John Henry, the 1984 champion after outpointing Slew o’ Gold in a squeaker, was subconsciously being considered by some voters for a 5-year, rather than a 1-year, record.

Of the longshot contenders for horse of the year, Cutlass Reality could be in the best position. A 6-year-old with only 7 career victories before this year, Cutlass Reality has come to life. But his accomplishments are still doubted by Eastern voters, because all of his success has been in California and since he went on Lasix, the controversial medication given to horses that bleed internally.

Two victories over Alysheba at the end of the year--at the Meadowlands and in the Breeders’ Cup--would quiet most of the skeptics, but a parlay on this happening would break the banks in Las Vegas. In his last start, Cutlass Reality left California and was trounced by Cryptoclearance, a horse known only for his unfulfilled promise.

The other candidates could win only if outside circumstances went their way. Forty Niner, who lost by a neck in the Woodward, would have to beat Alysheba in the Classic and probably also need a loss by Personal Ensign in the Distaff. If a horse such as 1984’s improbable Wild Again were to win the Classic, Winning Colors--who did win the Santa Anita and Kentucky derbies--might sneak in if she beat Personal Ensign.

The forgotten horse in all of this is Risen Star, who was considered the country’s best horse until Alysheba returned from his layoff. Risen Star won the Preakness and the Belmont and was third in the Kentucky Derby, and colts have become horse of the year for doing a lot less.

But Risen Star was retired because of an injury after the Belmont, which hurt the popularity of both the horse and his enigmatic co-owner-trainer, Louie Roussel. If the truth were known, voters sometimes evaluate the man rather than the horse when they vote. It’s a practice that’s worse than not even casting a ballot.