Commentary : Mets Need Punch and Lessons in Leadership

It was four days before Opening Day when New York Mets Vice President Joe McIlvaine sent up this warning flare: “I wonder if we have enough offense. Off what I’ve seen this spring, you have to be somewhat concerned.”

Forty-nine games into the regular season, the answer is no, the Mets don’t have enough offense.

Publicly, Manager Davey Johnson and the Mets’ front office have refused to admit that this offense isn’t much better than what it has shown so far.

“I’m the eternal optimist,” Johnson said. “All we need is for the guys here to do what they’re capable of. It’s a long season. Eventually, they will have the kind of year they normally have, or not too far off.”

But privately, the Mets have to be worried that this is it; that what the club has shown for 49 games is pretty much what it will get. Remember, we’re not talking about just a bad nine-game California trip.

By Tuesday, fully one-third of the season will have been played. And before this, there was the lack of hitting in spring training. And before that, there was that dull three-month stretch last year in which the Mets were 41-41. How much more evidence is needed?

Look at it this way: Since 1987, the Mets’ average of runs per game has dropped from 5.08 to 4.39 to 3.21 this year. The Mets haven’t had this much trouble scoring since 1972.

What’s wrong? Nobody on the club can bunt and few of them know how to move runners with good outs. All you need to know about the sort of offense they have is that they are 7-15 when they don’t hit a home run.

You can’t blame it on one person. But obviously, the Mets look awful when Darryl Strawberry doesn’t hit. He is the only player on the team who is capable of hitching this club to his back and carrying it for about two weeks. He hasn’t done that. Strawberry is on a pace to drive in 79 runs and strike out 152 times. The Mets can’t win with that.

And Kevin McReynolds has offered next to nothing. He is on a pace to drive in only 60 runs. He has his three-year contract and he has his duck club. For whatever reason, he has provided little production and even less inspiration.

With Keith Hernandez and Gary Carter out with knee injuries, this is a team in transition. They were leaders in the clubhouse and on the field, even if they weren’t hitting.

“Other clubs look at us differently with them in there,” one player said. “I don’t care if they’re hitting or not.”

No one has carried their torches. The logical progression would have their roles passed on to Strawberry and McReynolds. Neither seems willing or capable of doing that. So what is left is a cast of supporting actors with no one to play the lead.

The Mets have become such a familiar, complacent team that they aren’t bothered by losing. Why? They expect to win the division. It will just happen, they think. A slump in May? No reason to worry. They’ll win when they have to, right?

“I’m not really worried too much,” Kevin Elster said during the California trip. “When we have to win, we will. We know we can win the big games.”

Indeed, the Mets have been a terrific team down the stretch under Johnson. Their records after Aug. 21--the final six weeks--under Johnson are 22-17, 26-18, 29-13, 24-16 and 29-8. That combined record is 130-72, a .644 winning percentage. Their winning percentage in all other games is .591.

It’s dangerous thinking to assume your future is guaranteed by history. They’re guilty of the same faulty logic with their offense. Johnson keeps talking about players performing to their levels. But what are the levels of Howard Johnson, Elster, Dave Magadan, Barry Lyons, Tim Teufel and Jefferies? None of them has put up enough consistent numbers to offer any assurances.

So what’s the answer? It starts with Strawberry and McReynolds. They have to be the ones the Mets want up there with two outs and a runner in scoring position.

The next most important factor is the division. So far, it’s been so weak that the Mets have played virtually .500 baseball and stayed right in the race. If that continues, then the Mets can afford to wait out this slump. They will be a contender, but they will be boring.