BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : Get Ready for More Big Bucks: Here Comes Arbitration

Arbitration, which baseball’s owners are now trying to exorcise in the collective bargaining negotiations, seems certain to provide the next great shock wave in the stunning salary escalations of this winter.

And this time, the owners can blame themselves rather than the arbitrators. The incredible array of free-agent signings in November and December--with seven players now averaging $3 million or more a year in their new contracts--is expected to have a significant impact on arbitration, where comparative salaries and statistics are appropriate yardsticks within certain guidelines.

Technically, a player with fewer than five years of major league service can be compared only to a player with the same amount of service or to a player with one more year of service. However, the arbitrator often decides what is relevant, and the guidelines are often obscured.

Said veteran agent Tom Reich: “The escalation of this winter has been a result of the catch-up from collusion. It’s a result of the first free market in five years. There’s been a doubling of team revenue in that time, and there’s no question but that (the free-agent signings) will have a major impact (on arbitration). That doesn’t mean every player will be affected equally, but the impact should be substantial.”

The 201 players eligible for arbitration began a 10-day filing period Friday. Those who file will exchange salary figures with their clubs Jan. 17. An arbitrator will select either the player or club’s figure after a hearing in February.

The player and club can continue to negotiate until the hearing begins. Last year, 135 players filed, but 123 reached agreement with their clubs before their hearing dates. The filing itself tends to “breed a resolution of the contract conflict since no one really wants to go to arbitration,” attorney Barry Axelrod said.

Axelrod represents Angel first baseman Wally Joyner, who averted an arbitration hearing last year when he accepted a one-year, $920,000 contract.

Joyner again has the option of arbitration, but Axelrod said he is having difficulty choosing an appropriate figure in the wake of the free-agent signings, which included three first basemen--Kent Hrbek, who remained with the Minnesota Twins; Nick Esasky, who moved from the Boston Red Sox to the Atlanta Braves, and Pete O’Brien, who went from the Cleveland Indians to the Seattle Mariners.

Hrbek received $14 million for five years, an average of $2.8 million a year; Esasky received $5.7 million for three years, an average of $1.9 million a year, and O’Brien received $7.6 million for four years, also an average of $1.9 million.

All three have more seniority than Joyner, but it can be argued that Joyner’s four-year statistics are comparable or superior over that span.

There are similar studies throughout the arbitration list.

What, for instance, is the Detroit Tigers’ journeyman catcher, Matt Nokes, to think when he sees Lance Parrish get $6.75 million for three years from the Angels and Tony Pena get $6.2 from the Boston Red Sox? Nokes made only $195,000 in his third major league season, but his home run and RBI totals are superior to Parrish’s and Pena’s over that span.

What do Eric Davis, who made $1.35 million in 1989, and Glenn Davis, $1.085 million, file at? Or Will Clark, $1.125 million; Kevin Mitchell, $535,000; John Franco, $1,067,500; Ruben Sierra, $350,000; Jose Canseco, $1.6 million; Mark McGwire, $420,000; Bo Jackson, $585,000; Mitch Williams, $377,500, and Fred McGriff, $300,000? All are eligible for arbitration and should benefit from the free-agent signings.

Axelrod reflected on the winter of 1984, when Rick Sutcliffe was eligible for free agency after having won the National League’s Cy Young award.

Axelrod said he was amazed then at the size of the offers Sutcliffe received and amazed now at how they have paled with the signings of this winter.

“The salaries have almost doubled in five years, and it all seems to have happened in one year,” he said. “I’ve never seen anything like it. I mean, what happened this winter has been like a wildfire.

“It’s incredible, and I don’t think anyone can assimilate the long-range impact yet, but from the players’ point of view I certainly think it will be beneficial to use some of the new contracts (for comparison in arbitration), even if less service time is involved.”

In other words, there’s bound to be a trickle-down affect.

More likely a flood.

Some arbitration facts and figures:

--With the threat of a spring lockout by the owners, the arbitration process may be more attractive than ever to the players, since the arbitrator determines only salary.

Arbitration does not permit the negotiation of any special covenant, such as a lockout clause that would prevent the player from being paid during a work stoppage by the owners.

--The clubs have a 154-125 lead in the overall arbitration series, but their losses have contributed significantly to the growth of salaries, as has the simple threat of arbitration by players eligible for the process.

Consider this: Last year, the 12 leading players who were eligible for arbitration for the first time, jumped from a combined $3.49 million to $10.945 million. And in 1988, the salaries of the 12 leading players eligible for the first time jumped from $3.586 million to $9.544 million.

The owners have proposed that the salaries for all players with zero to six years of major league service be shared equally by the 26 teams and that those salaries be determined by a two-year statistical table. This would eliminate arbitration for players in the zero-to-six category.

--Harry Dalton, general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, has never had a player go to arbitration since the process began in 1974, when he was general manager of the Angels. That record may be in jeopardy, however, since the Brewers have 14 players eligible for arbitration, a major-league high. Among them are Paul Molitor, Ted Higuera, relief ace Dan Plesac and 15-game winner Chris Bosio.

--The signing of free agent Mark Langston to a five-year, $16-million contract will have a significant impact on the Angels’ $15.3-million payroll of last year, the major league’s 11th biggest, but not to the same extent as arbitration.

Joyner is just one of 11 Angels eligible for the process. The other 10, with 1989 salaries:

Chuck Finley, $180,000; Willie Fraser, $200,000; Jack Howell, $465,000; Bob McClure, $200,000; Kirk McCaskill, $400,000; Greg Minton, $630,000; Bill Schroeder, $372,500; Max Venable, salary unavailable; Devon White, $320,000, and Mike Witt, $1.4 million.

The Dodgers have only five players eligible: Kal Daniels, $325,000; Rick Dempsey, $420,000; Jeff Hamilton, $150,000; Ray Searage, $141,000, and Franklin Stubbs, $345,000.

The most interesting contract negotiation of the winter may involve Canseco, who came back to hit 17 homers and drive in 57 runs after missing the first half of the season with a broken wrist. One hundred American League players had more at-bats but fewer RBIs than Canseco, who averaged an RBI every 3.9 at-bats.

Among American League players with 300 or more at-bats, Hrbek was the production leader with 84 RBIs in 375 at-bats, or one every 4.5 times up.Bo Jackson was second at 4.9, driving in 105 runs in 515 at-bats.

Mitchell led the National League in that category with an RBI every 4.3 at-bats, based on 125 in 543 at-bats. Eric Davis was second at 4.5, and Jack Clark and Pedro Guerrero tied for third at 4.8.

Former Dodger relief pitcher Alejandro Pena, traded with Mike Marshall to the New York Mets for Juan Samuel, told New York baseball writers the other day that he is joining a winner. He guaranteed it.

“From the bottom to the top, they have a super club,” Pena said of the Mets. “I think it’s a guaranteed win this year.”

Pena said he never got the appreciation from the Dodgers that he deserved and was hopeful he would be traded into a situation where he can be the right-handed closer, a role that Jay Howell fills with the Dodgers.

“I hope (the Mets) give me that opportunity,” Pena said. “The Dodgers gave me that opportunity in 1987, then they go and get Jay Howell.”

The Mets have not been specific about Pena’s role, but he is likely to get a better opportunity to close than he did with the Dodgers.

Left-hander John Franco, the new Mets’ closer, held left-handed hitters to a .154 batting average last year, but right-handers hit .271 against him, which may mean that the right-handed Pena will move out of the set-up man role on occasion. He had 28 saves and a 2.52 earned-run average in his last three years with the Dodgers.