What If Brea Played Team of All-Stars? The Computer Knows

What if Brea-Olinda played a team of Orange County all-stars in a girls’ basketball game? What would happen? Here’s one scenario using the basketball computer simulation, Slam Dunk, which incorporates efficiency ratings based upon players’ 1993-94 statistics to determine probabilities. The program has a built-in bias for height; a manual bias was entered to adjust for the Ladycats’ cohesiveness. Quotes are based on conversations with the principals after they were presented the scenario. Brea-Olinda Coach John Hattrup downplayed the importance of a proposed annual game between the Ladycats and a collection of the county’s best players.

“We’ve already proven ourselves,” he said. “What do we have to gain? We went 33-0.”

“You’ll be the greatest team in Orange County history,” said a promoter of the event.

“We’re already the greatest team in Orange County history,” Hattrup retorted. “Anybody who doesn’t know that doesn’t know anything about basketball.”

Anticipation was high and opinions varied among county girls’ basketball observers, as well as these coaches:

* Mary Hauser, Mater Dei: “It will be competitive. The question is, can the five Brea starters last the whole game? You’re talking about five all-stars . Brea has five quality players that can play with anyone, but man, I think that will wear on them after a while.”

* Mary Mulligan, San Clemente: “I don’t think any high school team is deep enough to deal with that kind of talent. You can’t double-team anyone. “

* Shannon Jakosky, Newport Harbor: “I think the all-stars are going to die a slow death. Brea’s going to win by 15, 20 points. Their team cohesiveness is great.”

And so the speculation went, on and on, right up to game time.

After the all-stars were announced, the Ladycats were introduced as the four-time defending State champion, “the Quad Squad.”

The all-stars were selected specifically to attack chinks in Brea’s armor. They were big--very big: Calvary Chapel’s Blythe Linsey (6-5), Woodbridge’s Angela Burgess (6-4) and Melanie Pearson (6-1), Cypress’ Jessica Eggleston (6-0), Marina’s Shandy Robbins (6-0), Dana Hills’ Karun Grossman (6-1), Rancho Alamitos’ Akilah Rodgers (5-11 1/2) and Edison’s Marie Philman (5-10).

“We’ve got a lot more inside,” said the all-star coach, Woodbridge’s Eric Bangs, The Times Orange County coach of the year. “We’ll match strength for strength with (Sarah) Beckley and get (Colleen) Hudson in foul trouble. With our depth, we’ll keep pounding them.” And then, after a short pause, he added, “But we still might not beat ‘em.”

Everywhere Brea looked, they were looking up. Even at guard, the all-stars were tall: Costa Mesa’s Heather Robinson (5-11), Mater Dei’s Melody Peterson (5-9), San Clemente’s Michelle Macintyre (5-9) and Woodbridge’s Jamie Oenning (5-7). They were both intimidating, imposing teams.

Brea rode the emotion of a large partisan crowd to an 8-3 lead before the all-stars rallied for a 10-8 advantage on Grossman’s three-pointer.

The all-stars got eight points from Rodgers and led, 18-15, going into the second quarter. With 5 minutes 4 seconds left in the half, they held the game’s biggest lead, 24-19. But Hudson hit two free throws, and Beckley and Lauri Jordan scored on putbacks, and the game was tied at 25.

It became apparent as the half wore on that the redwoods in the all-star lineup were ill-prepared for Brea’s pace; Linsey and Burgess had only two points and two rebounds between them. Hudson, driven by the challenge, would finish the half with 10 points and 10 rebounds.

Pearson came off the bench and scored eight of the all-stars’ 10 points during one stretch, but Brea scored 13 during the same period. That’s the way it went--the all-stars found answers, and the Ladycats responded accordingly.

Woodbridge’s Oenning had asked reporters during the playoffs two months earlier what would happen if the two schools played each other. Woodbridge was ranked second to Brea most of the season and played for the State Division II title. By halftime, after her three-pointer gave the all-stars a lead, Oenning had her answer. She turned to Burgess: “These guys are good.”

Nicole Erickson encouraged her team to continue to play Ladycat basketball despite the 35-34 deficit. So often in the playoffs, she had said, “if we play the way we’re capable, it will take a disaster to beat us.”

Rodgers opened the third quarter with a free throw, and Macintyre made a 15-footer to give the all-stars a 38-34 lead. It looked like the beginning of the end.

And it was.

Brea scored eight in a row. Then Jordan scored back-to-back. Then Lee Moulin got hot, scoring Brea’s next 11 points, including three three-point baskets, the last one a buzzer beater to give the Ladycats a 61-49 lead.

The fans were in hysterics over Brea’s sprint, but they weren’t loud for long. Linsey opened the fourth quarter with five of the all-stars’ first seven points. Robinson scored twice on drives, and Macintyre buried a 16-footer as the momentum turned.

Brea’s 54-game winning streak was ripe for the breaking. The Ladycats were No. 1 in the nation and 130-5 over the previous four years, but they were out of gas. The all-stars’ depth had finally paid dividends; the Ladycats seemed ready to fall.

Erickson, the school’s all-time leading scorer, had not scored since the 7:48 mark of the second quarter. But she answered the all-star rally with a long three-pointer, and Hudson followed with a turnaround jumper to make it 71-62 Brea with 3:39 to go.

The all-stars got the points back quickly. Peterson scored on a drive, then hit an 18-footer, and then the usually reserved Moulin--inexplicably--was whistled for a technical foul.

Rodgers converted the free throws to make it 71-68.

The all-stars couldn’t score on the ensuing possession, and Hudson’s tip-in made it 73-68.

Hudson answered Macintyre’s short jumper with a free throw. Brea led 74-70 with 1:16 left.

Peterson had a chance to make it a one-point game when she was fouled by Kiyoko Miller on a 14-footer, but the free throw was off and covered up by Hudson, who might have been playing the game of her life. The all-stars were still two points short, 74-72.

Brea’s Beckley missed underneath on the other end. Rodgers went hard to the basket for the tie, but Hudson fouled her with six seconds to go.

Rodgers made the first one, but missed the second. The rebound was Hudson’s 21st, and she got the ball to Erickson. It was over.

“That’s the way it’s been all year,” Hattrup said after the 74-73 victory. “Nicole’s a great player, but she’s not our only player, and people forget that.”

Erickson finished with nine points while Hudson had 20 points and 21 rebounds. Beckley had 13 points, Moulin had 11 and Miller had eight.

The all-stars got 13 from Rodgers and Macintyre. Sophomores Philman, Peterson and Pearson, the future of OC basketball, had 10, eight and eight points.

Afterward, an overjoyed Erickson was in tears.

“I can’t explain how I’m feeling,” she said. “I’m in another zone. Honestly, I’m numb. It feels like I never even played this game.”

The Computer’s Tale

The boxscore of Brea-Olinda’s computer-generated 74-73 victory over an Orange County all-star team, as generated by the Slam Dunk computer simulation: ALL-STARS 73

Min FG-A FT-A R A P T M. Peterson 20 4-10 0-1 1 2 2 8 M. Macintyre 22 5-8 3-4 1 6 1 13 A. Rodgers 18 4-8 5-8 8 2 2 13 K. Grossman 8 2-3 0-0 4 0 0 5 J. Eggleston 16 0-3 2-4 2 0 1 2 M. Philman 22 5-8 0-1 2 2 0 10 B. Linsey 8 2-4 1-1 4 0 0 5 A. Burgess 6 1-1 0-0 1 1 0 2 H. Robinson 12 2-4 0-0 1 1 2 4 J. Oenning 10 1-2 0-0 1 0 2 3 M. Pearson 8 3-5 2-2 1 1 1 8 S. Robbins 10 0-6 0-0 1 1 0 0 Totals 160 29-62 13-21 27 16 11 73

Shooting: Field goals, 46.7%; free throws, 61.9%.

Three-point goals--2-6 (Grossman 1-2, Oenning 1-2, Robinson 0-1, Robbins 0-1). Team rebounds--4. Blocked shots--None. Turnovers--6 (Rodgers 2, Grossman 1 Oenning 1, Peterson 1, Philman 1). Steals--3 (Oenning 1, Peterson 1, Robinson 1).

BREA-OLINDA 74

Min FG-A FT-A R A P T N. Erickson 25 3-10 2-2 2 3 1 9 K. Miller 26 3-8 1-2 3 4 4 8 C. Hudson 26 8-11 4-6 21 1 3 20 L. Moulin 28 4-7 3-5 5 2 2 11 S. Beckley 25 5-13 3-3 6 0 2 13 J. Saari 13 1-5 0-0 0 1 0 2 D. Metz 6 1-1 0-0 1 0 0 2 S. Rhodabarger 4 0-1 3-4 0 0 0 3 L. Jordan 7 3-3 0-0 3 0 0 6 Totals 160 28-59 16-22 41 11 12 74

Shooting: Field goals, 47.5%; free throws, 72.7%.

Three-point goals--4-10 (Moulin 3-5, Erickson 1-4, Saari 0-1). Team rebounds--6. Blocked shots--1 (Saari 1). Turnovers--12 (Erickson 4, Miller 4, Beckley 2, Hudson 1, Saari 1). Steals--2 (Erickson 1, Miller 1).

All-stars 18 17 14 24 -- 73 Brea-Olinda 15 19 27 13 -- 74

Attendance--1,621.