TODAY’S NFL GAMES : Trouble in Blitzburgh : Colt Quarterback Jim Harbaugh Will Be Put to the Test Against Steelers’ Unusually Effective Defense

Will the Colts win? Come on, will the Colts score?

Only three teams have failed to score a point in the history of AFC championship games, and today the Colts are a promising candidate to become the first team in NFL history to be shut out twice in an AFC championship game.

The Baltimore Colts, playing without top running backs Norm Bulaich and Tom Matte, still had Johnny Unitas at quarterback on Jan. 2, 1972, and yet were humbled, 21-0, in Miami.

The Indianapolis Colts will be without running back Marshall Faulk (knee) against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense, ranked third in the NFL, and will be scrambling to find the end zone with Jim Harbaugh at quarterback.

Good luck, said Jerry Rhome, offensive coordinator for the Houston Oilers, who scored a total of 24 points in two games against the Steelers this season. “It won’t be easy for the Colts. You’re talking about one of the better defenses in the league. I’d rather play against a lot of teams other than them.”

The Colts, with a lineup one might expect to see in the second half of an exhibition game, will run the ball with Lamont Warren and Zack Crockett and throw it to Sean Dawkins, Floyd Turner and Ken Dilger.

“I’ll be surprised if a lot of points are scored,” said Dave Adolph, defensive coordinator for the San Diego Chargers, who played the Colts twice in the last month. “The Colts will be playing against a defense that they saw when they played Carolina, only Pittsburgh does it better.”

The Panthers, coached by former Steeler defensive coordinator Dom Capers, have a variety of zone blitzes designed to befuddle an offense. And the Colts were confused in a 13-10 loss to the Panthers in the first week of December.

It was ugly. The Colts ran 25 times for 65 yards, and that was with Faulk, and got only 135 yards passing. Harbaugh, and backup Paul Justin, were sacked a combined seven times.

“We’ve spent a lot of time on what Carolina did to us,” said Lindy Infante, offensive coordinator for the Colts. “Carolina was effective and we weren’t very well prepared for it, but I think this time we’ll be better prepared.”

Carolina, an expansion franchise, had defensive players still looking to make a name for themselves. The Steelers will have Greg Lloyd, Kevin Greene, Carnell Lake and more than 59,000 screaming fans.

“Last week we played the No. 2 defense in Kansas City, and this week we get another outstanding defense,” Infante said. “They have a scheme that makes it very difficult to know who’s coming at your quarterback. It’s a complex scheme, and you’d like to have three or four weeks to prepare for it.”

In their last five games in Three Rivers Stadium, including last week’s playoff victory over Buffalo, the Steelers’ blitzing defense got 21 sacks, forced six fumbles, intercepted six passes and gave up an average of 13 points a game.

“They blitz, all right, but it’s not a true blitz,” Rhome said. “Normally, if you rush more than four people, that’s considered a blitz. The Steelers won’t rush more than four most of the time.

“Instead, what they will do is switch assignments. They will take a defensive end and drop him into pass coverage, while having a linebacker rush the passer. They will drop a tackle and rush a safety up the middle. Nebraska did the same thing against Florida, and you saw what happened to Florida.

“If your offensive players are used to making reads on certain things, they’re going to mess up. That’s what happened to Buffalo quarterback Jim Kelly last week and he got blind-sided. You need a whole set of new rules for playing the Steelers. Your wide receivers have to be alert, and if someone is blitzing from their area, they need to react and be ready to catch the ball.

“The plus to the Steelers’ defense is the confusion it creates in blocking schemes. The negative is you don’t always have your best pass rushers pursuing the quarterback or your best cover guys staying back because of the assignment switches. If the offense is doing a good job picking up the different people rushing, you’re actually hurting yourself on defense.”

The Steelers’ defense has guessed wrong and has surrendered the big play, especially against teams with mobile quarterbacks. Minnesota, with Warren Moon at quarterback, scored 44 points against Pittsburgh in the fourth week of the season, and Cincinnati, with Jeff Blake at quarterback, averaged 29 points in two games.

“I think most teams have difficulty with a scrambling quarterback,” Colt Coach Ted Marchibroda said. “If you have a quarterback that’s throwing well in the pocket and can run for first downs, you’re in trouble.”

That would appear to be the Colts’ best chance for success: a scrambling Harbaugh, who ran effectively for the University of Michigan and for the Chicago Bears, and who has developed the ability to throw the ball at the last second before crossing the line of scrimmage. Fact is, though, Harbaugh has had to run while playing for the Colts. Only three teams gave up more sacks than the Colts (49).

“Still, you have to put a spy on him, keep someone waiting at the line for him, if you’re going to rush him and play man-to-man in the secondary,” Adolph said. “It’s the same old John Elway problem. He can bust a run right up the middle.”

Harbaugh dodged trouble against the Chiefs by running nine times for 48 yards in a 10-7 victory.

“He’s killing people with his scrambling, and that makes it a little hairy for the Steelers’ defense,” Rhome said. “You’ve got to be careful to contain him. When I was with the Redskins and we played Elway, we rushed five people on him the whole game with two people always coming on the outside. They had one assignment: Don’t let him run out of the pocket.”

In trying to solve the Steelers’ defense, the Colts will rely on their young running backs to pick up the mystery blitzer. If successful, Harbaugh will have time to look deep. If not, both Adolph and Rhome think it could be a trying day for the Colts.

“Harbaugh has been making so many good decisions for them,” Adolph said. “He’s the key. I don’t think you can rattle him because he’ll run away from trouble. He has that experience.

“He likes to look for Dawkins; you can tell he trusts him to catch the ball. He will throw to Turner, but he likes Dawkins. Dilger has become more and more important as the season has gone along. Strong safeties have trouble handling him because of his size [6 feet 5, 256 pounds]; I know we had our problems with him.”

The Colts’ strength rests in their ability to control the ball. They threw fewer passes than any other team in the league and ranked fifth in time of possession. Harbaugh was the NFL’s No. 1-rated quarterback, in a large part, because he had only five interceptions in 314 passes.

But can they get the ball into the end zone against Pittsburgh?

“Indianapolis will have their hands full,” Rhome said. “I think the offense will struggle against a defense they just aren’t used to.”

The loser in the last five AFC championship games has failed to score at least 14 points. That trend figures to continue today.