SWING IS IN THE AIR : Expect Another Assault on Pitching and Possibly on Maris' Record

By ROSS NEWHAN

March 30, 1997 12 AM PT

Ten things to watch for in what figures to be another corking summer of high scoring major league games:

1. The assault on 61.

Colleague Jim Murray recently wrote of the 1997 season that no one would break Roger Maris’ record for home runs, but the feeling here is that someone will.

An offensive onslaught has produced records for home runs per game in each of the last three years and should only intensify--much to the satisfaction of the owners, who equate it with box office and aren’t about to do anything that would help the beleaguered and expansion-weakened pitching.

Forty-four players hit 30 or more homers last year and 17 hit 40 or more, both records.

Mark McGwire, who missed a month, hit 52. Ken Griffey Jr, who missed almost a month, hit 49.

Albert Belle, who has hit 98 in the last two years, is now teamed with Frank Thomas, who hit 40 and missed 21 games. McGwire is reunited with Jose Canseco. Griffey has the support of Jay Buhner, who hit 44.

It’s a golden age of hitting, insists Thomas, the Big Hurt.

McGwire is 33. Belle is 30. Griffey, Thomas, Juan Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Bagwell and Mike Piazza are all 28 or younger.

Then there’s Brady Anderson, who is 33 and set the tone for a year in which there were 4,962 homers hit by slugging 50 after never hitting more than 21 in a season.

Maris? Consider one other factor: With the introduction of interleague play, Griffey, McGwire, Gonzalez and Buhner will be among the American League West’s heavy hitters afforded two games each in the homer haven of Coors Field.

2. Division dogfights.

The Atlanta Braves, with a new look in the outfield but that familiar and tested pitching, may still be baseball’s best team, but are no lock to win their division title.

The Florida Marlins rolled through the spring after a winter spending spree of $100 million-plus and have a legitimate shot in the National League East, a race that characterizes the way it is in ’97. There is no sure thing in any division, and wild-card depth, stretched to the max, may embrace more than 20 of the 28 teams, belying that alleged disparity between big- and small-market teams.

3. Labor peace, interleague play and attendance resurgence.

Surveys indicate that many fans, mainly citing rising ticket prices, have yet to return in the aftermath of the strike, but other numbers are more positive, showing a slow but steady recovery.

Attendance was up 6.5% last year, when more than 60 million attended major league games. That’s a 17% increase per team in 10 years but still 10 million below the record 70 million-plus of 1993.

Season-ticket sales project to an 8.8% increase and about 65 million this year, but that could go higher if the races and interleague play have the anticipated impact.

4. The umpiring threat.

If the umpires are serious about rigidly enforcing every rule and responding to arguments with quick ejections, confrontation may yield to chaos.

It didn’t happen in spring training, when managers and players made it a point to walk away from close calls, but in the intensity and emotions of the season, that could change.

Said an American League manager, “I think most of us have told our players that if anything needs to be said, let the manager or coaches say it. I don’t want to lose a game because my No. 4 hitter was ejected for suggesting that a called strike may have been an inch or two outside.”

5. A family feud.

Second baseman Wilton Guerrero gives the Dodgers a shot at a sixth consecutive rookie-of-the-year award, but he has to beat out his brother, Montreal Expo outfielder Vladimir Guerrero.

It should be enough for the Dodgers if the younger Guerrero is merely ready to provide some speed and bat control behind Brett Butler and--the key area--some stability on defense.

Besides, Chicago Cub third baseman Kevin Orie or Philadelphia third baseman Scott Rolen, may win the NL rookie award.

6. Hot corner Cal.

The consecutive-games streak is at 2,316 and counting, but Cal Ripken Jr., will be found at third base for the Baltimore Orioles, with free agent Mike Bordick replacing him at shortstop.

The wild-card Orioles hit a major league-record 257 home runs last year, but defense was a shortcoming that should be improved with Ripken swallowing pride and filling a hole at third and the steady Bordick filling the big shoes at short.

7. The incredible walking man.

Barry Bonds drew a National League-record 151 walks last year and has been intentionally walked 145 times in the last five years. Most of the time, he had Matt Williams, a bona fide threat, batting behind him. But Williams is now with the Cleveland Indians and Bonds is surrounded by so much uncertainty with the rebuilding San Francisco Giants that it may be June before he sees a pitch in the strike zone.

Or as manager Dusty Baker said while trying to figure out a batting order, “There’s no perfect scenario here unless I bat Barry third, fourth and fifth. That’s how it is.”

8. Another year of the shortstop.

Seldom has a position produced a more impressive cast than last year, when Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Edgar Renteria, Rey Ordonez and Mark Grudzielanek were among the shortstops making their full-season debuts. Now comes American League rookie-of-the-year favorite Nomar Garciaparra, who by winning the Boston Red Sox job bumped an unhappy John Valentin to second base and Wil Cordero to left field.

No one expects Garciaparra to have the type year Rodriguez did. The Seattle shortstop hit .358, becoming the first player at his position to win the AL batting crown since Lou Boudreau in 1944. He also led the league in runs, doubles and total bases, finishing second to Gonzalez in most-valuable-player balloting.

9. Relief call.

There are several pivotal questions as the new season begins.

Can Mariano Rivera, an incomparable setup man, replace John Wetteland as the Yankees’ closer?

Can Wetteland, signed to a four-year, $22.9-million contract, reverse the inconsistency of the Texas bullpen and enable the Rangers to beat the powerful Seattle Mariners in the AL West again?

Can the Cleveland Indians replace Jose Mesa, out indefinitely while facing separate trials on charges of rape and carrying a concealed weapon.

Will Mel Rojas, who left Uncle Felipe Alou in Montreal, get enough save opportunities behind a suspect Cubs’ rotation to justify a three-year, $13-million contract, and the team’s optimism in the NL Central? Or can the St. Louis Cardinals, defending champions in the Central, hold off time and the competition again with Dennis Eckersley, 42, as the closer and Rick Honeycutt, 42, as his setup man?

And in local area codes:

Can Todd Worrell give the Dodgers another sound season before Darren Dreifort becomes the closer?

Can Troy Percival retain his intimidating pop and personality as the Angels’ closer now that, under doctor’s orders, he has given up chewing tobacco and 12 cups of coffee a day. Pass the decaf.

10. Managerial stability, and other dugout quirks.

There were seven managerial changes over the winter, including the Dodgers’ retention of Bill Russell. Eighteen of the 28 major league managers have been in their jobs two or fewer seasons, which may mean it is too soon for them to have worn out their welcome.

Russell embarks on his first full year as Tom Lasorda’s successor with a team capable of finally putting a hammerlock on the NL West and cognizant that boasts alone won’t do it.

The tightly wound Terry Collins debuts with the patchwork Angels and faces a potentially exasperating challenge. Disney has wisely recognized the need to retain the organization’s best young players but may have to learn the hard way that the opportunity to win is fleeting and it is equally important to surround that core with potentially expensive quality rather than an older, more fragile and less expensive group.

The managerial spotlight will also be on:

* Jim Leyland, who has a chance to win again with the Marlins after those desolate summers in Pittsburgh;

* Larry Dierker, who has moved from the broadcasting booth to the helm of the Houston Astros as the choice of owner Drayton McLane, who is not likely to make a quick admission that he made a mistake--if, indeed, he did;

* Joe Torre, who is trying to produce a second consecutive title for New York Yankee owner George Steinbrenner and again avoid the inherent land mines of the Bronx;

* Dusty Baker, who was given a two-year extension as the Giants’ manager but is working for a new general manager, Brian Sabean, who has brought Jim Fregosi into the organization as a minor league instructor and major league shadow--a warning to Baker, perhaps, that his undermanned Giants need a fast start.

* Terry Bevington, who was rehired by the Chicago White Sox only after the club talked to Leyland and others and is obviously in a must-win situation with the $11-million-a-year Belle in his lineup.

* Jimy Williams, who may face a tougher time handling the Red Sox and a clubhouse openly defiant of the front office than he did handling George Bell in Toronto.

THE RACES

One man’s opinion:

NATIONAL LEAGUE

West: 1. Dodgers; 2. Colorado; 3. San Diego; 4. San Francisco.

Central: 1. St. Louis; 2. Chicago; 3. Houston; 4. Cincinnati; 5. Pittsburgh.

East: 1. Atlanta; 2. Florida; 3. Montreal; 4. New York; 5. Philadelphia.

Wild card: Florida.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

West: 1. Seattle; 2. Texas; 3. Angels; 4. Oakland.

Central: 1. Cleveland; 2. Chicago; 3. Minnesota; 4. Milwaukee; 5. Kansas City.

East: 1. New York; 2. Baltimore; 3. Toronto; 4. Boston; 5. Detroit.

Wild card: Baltimore.

THE 10 BEST

1. Atlanta; 2. Florida; 3. Seattle; 4. Los Angeles; 5. Cleveland; 6. New York; 7. Chicago White Sox; 8. Baltimore; 9. St. Louis; 10. Colorado.

THE TRADE

Seldom have two more formidable teams made a bigger trade on the eve of the season than Atlanta and Cleveland did on Tuesday--the Braves sending David Justice and Marquis Grissom to the Indians for Kenny Lofton and relief pitcher Alan Embree.

In Atlanta’s dynastic run through the ‘90s, one consistently missing ingredient had been speed--aside from flashes by Deion Sanders and Otis Nixon. Lofton, who has won five consecutive stolen-base titles in the American League, will cure that. He has stolen 325 bases since 1992, compared to Atlanta’s team total of 455--and on Thursday the Braves added a relay partner for Lofton by acquiring outfield Michael Tucker from Kansas City for Jermaine Dye.

Nevertheless, the departures of Grissom and Justice left a sullen mood in the Braves’ clubhouse, and Chipper Jones for one, wondered what will happen if the Braves are unable to re-sign Lofton.

“Does that mean we traded Grissom and Justice for Alan Embree?” Jones asked. “Real goooood.”

And an observer with the last name of Belle said the Indians have been making too many moves, changing the complexion of a championship team.

“There’s going to be a lot of chaos over there,” said the former Cleveland left fielder. “They’ve only got about a dozen guys left from the [1995] World Series team.

“You can’t keep taking players away and adding new ones and expect to jell right away. It’s going to take time, and [the White Sox] we can take advantage of that. A lot of guys here have been together quite a while now, although losing [third baseman] Robin Ventura [who could be out for the season with a broken leg] is going to hurt.”

Belle added that Lofton was “the one guy on that team who could change the complexion of a game with his speed and defense, and occasionally with his bat.”

However, Lofton’s recent comments--as well as those by Orel Hershiser and Omar Vizquel--that the Indians would be better off without Belle’s disruptions, continue to disturb Belle, who said: “Kenny was sitting over there saying that they’ll be better off without me, and now he’s been traded. I wonder what he’s thinking now. Maybe he’s not so fond of them anymore. Kenny’s always popping off about something. He should just concentrate on playing.”

ADD MARIS

What was that I was saying about the home run record falling this year? Neither Belle nor Thomas had hit one before the final weekend of exhibition play, and the A’s McGwire, plagued throughout the spring by back spasms, spent the final weekend getting treatment in Oakland.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

1996 Major League Leaders

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Batting

Gwynn, San Diego: .353

Home Runs

Galarraga, Colorado: 47

Runs Batted In

Galarraga, Colorado: 150

Stolen Bases

Young, Colorado: 53

Earned-Run Average