SPOTLIGHT: EL NINO

If you can believe what the meteorologists are saying, then El Nino not only could be a nightmare for residents of Southern California, but also a very slippery time for some county high school sports seasons.

In the worst-case scenario, Southern California could get three to six weeks of nearly constant rainfall. As a result, county playing fields could turn into grass-lined swimming pools.

El Nino is a physical phenomenon that causes a massive warming of the waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean. As a result, this periodic change can shift the high-altitude jet stream, reverse traditional wind patterns and produce devastating droughts and floods.

The name El Nino means little boy in Spanish. The phenomenon was named after the Christ child because it usually occurs around Christmas time.

Sean Collins is a world-renowned surf forecaster based in Huntington Beach. Collins specializes in long-term weather forecasting and how it affects Southern California. He said the possibility that El Nino will drop three times the amount of normal precipitation in a space of three to six weeks is very real.

“It depends on where the high pressure sets up. If it sets up in the middle of a storm track and redirects the storms to the north of us, then we could have drought conditions,” Collins said. “But with El Nino, it’s like having a big can of gas and a book of matches. Will the lit match touch the gas? We’ll just have to wait and see.”

Collins said if El Nino does uncork the rain, it will probably be during the months of January and February. At that time all sports except soccer will be played indoors.

In Southern California, the worst El Nino occurred in the 1982-83 season. Then, El Nino conditions brought torrential storms and record surf that caused 14 deaths and $265 million in damage. It ripped up the Huntington Beach, Seal Beach and Santa Monica piers, and forced evacuation of more than 15,000 people.

Bob Render, who teaches industrial arts at Santa Ana Valley High, assigns referees for more than 3,000 boys’ and girls’ soccer games in Orange County. In 1982-83, Render, an official himself, was a rookie at assigning games. Although the season was completed, he remembers it was kind of “hairy” the last few days before section playoffs.

“I remember it was the last Saturday when you could make up a soccer game. And I got this call from one of the teams to come out to Irvine. The field was under three inches of water, and all these schools wanted me to do was to come out and officially say that the field was unsafe.”

As for the dire predictions of the coming El Nino, Render is worried.

“There’s really not much you can do. If it happens, it happens,” he said. “All I know if it does happen--the weeks of rain--it will be a huge mess and a major headache.”

Usually, if it’s raining on the day of the game, the schools that are playing each other will wait until noon to determine if the game should be played. And if it’s decided that a game should be postponed, then the schools will make it up on Saturday or the following Monday. Other days of the week are nearly impossible to schedule.

“As far as CIF [Southern Section] is concerned, the cancellation or postponement of games, the makeup of games is not their problem,” Render said. “That problem belongs to the schools and leagues.”

“Basically, each school is independent and nobody can tell them what to do. Yeah, it would be great if each league was organized and had a plan when it came to makeup games, but it just doesn’t work that way. And to get schools to make a game up on Saturday or Monday can be difficult.”

Karen Hellyer, Southern Section assistant commissioner, said the weather has never stopped completion of Southern Section playoffs.

“If the weather is bad, we manage it on a day-by-day basis,” Hellyer said. “Sometimes it might be raining in one area and not another, and a home team might have to play somewhere else. But we find a way.”

As far as pre-Southern Section play, Hellyer said she can’t speak on the matter since the responsibility belongs to each league.

Said Render: “I don’t see this being a big factor for tennis, since it’s played on cement and the surface can dry pretty fast. But when a field is soaked with water day after day, it can’t be used.

“I just have a horrible feeling that soccer is going to take the brunt of this.”