Voters Oppose Breaking Up Los Angeles

A month into the campaign over secession, voters citywide are leaning against breaking the San Fernando Valley away from Los Angeles and overwhelmingly oppose independence for Hollywood, according to a Los Angeles Times poll.

Secession remains popular in the Valley. After hearing a summary of arguments for and against secession, voters there said they favor a split from Los Angeles, 52% to 37%. But strong resistance in the rest of Los Angeles would lead Valley independence to defeat in the citywide vote, the poll found.

If the election were held today, Valley secession would lose citywide, with 38% in favor and 47% opposed. Hollywood secession would lose 25% to 59% citywide and by at least that much in the proposed Hollywood city, according to the poll. Under the rules governing the proposed breakup, secession requires a majority vote both in the area that would leave the city and in Los Angeles as a whole.

The survey indicates that a central battleground for the next four months of campaigning will be the portion of the Valley east of the San Diego Freeway. It also suggests that overall attitudes toward government and local control, rather than specific issues such as taxes, are likely to drive the result. Virtually no one surveyed, for example, believes that secession will lead to lower taxes, as some advocates have claimed. Many Valley residents say they will vote for secession anyway because they believe their portion of the city has been treated unfairly over the years.

As an alternative to secession, the City Council is weighing a ballot measure that would split Los Angeles into boroughs to provide local management of trash pickup, some zoning issues and other services. The poll found a majority of voters favor putting a borough plan on the ballot. But at this point, only 36% would vote for it, and 42% would oppose it.

The poll, supervised by Times poll director Susan Pinkus, was conducted by telephone from June 20 to 28. It surveyed 1,291 registered voters citywide with a sampling error of 3 percentage points in either direction. The survey included 576 Valley voters with a 4 percentage-point margin of sampling error.

Overall, as voters decide whether to make Los Angeles the first big city in America to break itself into smaller pieces, they feel upbeat about life in the city as it is, the poll found. By 62% to 33%, those surveyed say things are going well in Los Angeles, a view shared by a majority of voters in the Valley.

Valley Feels Overlooked and Underserved

What drives many secession backers is a feeling that the Valley gets less than its fair share of city services and attention, a belief held by 42% of voters in the Valley. Few voters elsewhere in the city say the Valley is short-changed; many pick South-Central as the one section of the city that is discriminated against.

Many secession backers also argue that smaller government and tighter local control would help solve pressing problems.

To Irene Langton, a poll respondent and Studio City resident since 1941, it boils down to the city’s failure to clear clogged storm drains on her block.

“We have complained and complained, and nothing happens,” said Langton, a retired high school teacher. “A Valley city would be the sixth-largest city in the country, and if L.A. treats it so shabbily--which they do--we might as well try it on our own.

“My political experience has been, the closer the voter gets to the people who make the laws and enforce them, the more likely you are to get service, to get something to happen,” she added.

Longtime Valley residents like Langton are the group most prone to favor secession.

Outside the Valley, voters in every section of Los Angeles favor keeping the city intact.

“This is getting to be like the Civil War, where you’ve just got to stand up and say what’s right,” said Diane Lamont, a library assistant who lives on the Westside. A breakup, she said, “would hurt everyone in the long run.”

So far, more than 3 out of 5 city voters say they have made up their minds on Valley secession. Over the 18-week campaign ahead, supporters and opponents of a breakup intend to spend millions of dollars on television ads to sway the roughly one-third who remain ambivalent--voters like Theresa Albanese, a Chatsworth resident since 1964.

Albanese said she leans toward secession because public schools are bad, taxes are too high, and City Hall neglects the Valley. But she found out last month that secession would not break up the Los Angeles Unified School District, and she has begun to worry that the biggest city on the West Coast might “lose its identity.”

“I’m getting a little leery,” she said. “I think it would be kind of hard to get used to saying you’re not from Los Angeles.”

The impact of secession on the school district is a point of widespread confusion. The poll found only 1 in 4 voters citywide is aware that secession would leave the school system untouched, an indication that some could be open to persuasion as they absorb more information over the summer and fall.

Indeed, after they said how they would vote, poll respondents were asked a series of questions about major issues in the campaign. They were then asked again which side they favored. Citywide, after the respondents heard arguments on both sides of the issues, the margin against secession grew.

Voters who have already made up their minds are divided most sharply along geographic lines.

Leaders of the Valley secession drive have said they need support from 65% of Valley voters to offset opposition elsewhere. At this point, they are falling short of that mark. The biggest stronghold for secession is in the west Valley, where voters favor a city breakup, 59% to 32%. East of the San Diego Freeway, the vote is essentially tied, 45% in favor and 42% opposed, a difference within the poll’s margin of error.

Voters outside the Valley oppose secession, 53% to 29%, the poll found.

Those results suggest that to win, secessionists must hold--and perhaps expand--their vote among whites and conservatives in the west Valley, but also build support on the Valley’s east side.

That area includes some heavily Latino communities such as Sylmar and Pacoima, and heavily Jewish neighborhoods in places such as Studio City, Sherman Oaks and North Hollywood.

Secession backers are hoping for a boost from state Sen. Richard Alarcon of Sylmar. He is considering a run for mayor of the Valley city, and his candidacy on the same ballot as the referendum could draw more support for secession among Latinos, political analysts say.

Poll Finds Latino Voters Reflect City

So far, though, Latino voters reflect the same opinions on secession as the city at large, the poll found. Citywide, Latino voters oppose secession, 45% to 36%, while in the Valley a majority supports independence.

“Let’s give it a try,” said Jesus Zambrano, a Sylmar aerospace technician. “I’m not necessarily saying this is a magic wand, but it’s a start.”

Among Jewish voters, secession is unpopular regardless of where they live. Jewish voters citywide oppose secession, 57% to 34%. A majority of Jewish voters in the Valley are also against secession, the poll indicates.

Voters in the households of union members are divided along geographic lines. Citywide, they oppose secession 49% to 34%, but in the Valley, they lean slightly toward independence from L.A. Union leaders have pledged an aggressive anti-secession campaign that they hope will sway members who support the breakup.

Even if the secessionists can solidify support in the Valley, the depth of opposition in the rest of the city could sink the measure. If voter turnout follows the pattern of recent elections, the pro-secession side probably needs to win at least 40% of the vote outside of the Valley to prevail citywide.

Although public opinion on secession is divided mainly by geography, the poll also found splits along other demographic lines.

Secession’s strongest supporters live in the Valley and are white, affluent, Republican, self-described conservatives or moderates. Most secession backers have lived in the Valley for at least 10 years, the poll found.

The staunchest opponents live outside the Valley and are liberals, Democrats, Jews and African Americans.

“It’s clear that the decision will be built around some of the dividing lines we’re already pretty familiar with in L.A., which is race, place and ideology,” said political scientist Raphael Sonenshein of Cal State Fullerton.

Still, the politics of secession appear to be realigning large blocs of the city electorate, he said. Specifically, the poll reflects a breakdown in the coalition that swept Mayor James K. Hahn into office: blacks in southern Los Angeles allied with white San Fernando Valley conservatives and moderates.

In its place, the survey suggests a coalition more similar to the one forged by former Mayor Tom Bradley in the 1970s and ‘80s: blacks and white liberals, Jews and Westside voters.

Black voters oppose secession by a 53% to 29% margin. That finding came even before the Rev. Cecil “Chip” Murray of First AME Church and more than 30 other black community leaders announced Friday that they will campaign against it.

Black voters in Los Angeles, most of whom live outside the Valley, have tended to vote in a unified bloc. Secession advocates have been trying to blunt opposition among black voters by arguing that a smaller city government would work to their advantage.

Greg Fisher, 44, a lifelong resident of South-Central, said Valley secession would hurt his neighborhood “tremendously” by taking away tax money needed for youth recreation programs.

“A lot of these kids, their parents don’t have food on the table for them, and they would go out and commit crimes to survive,” he said. “We’re already struggling as it is. We’re struggling bad out here.”

Richard Sebel, a financial consultant who lives near the intersection of Olympic and Robertson boulevards, said he fears a breakup would lead to less aid from Washington and Sacramento.

Outside the Valley,a main reason for opposing secession is a concern about the loss of tax revenue.

“I think everybody’s taxes are going to go up, and I don’t think anybody’s services are going to improve,” said retired teacher Sharon Bradford of Bel-Air.

The poll found just 4% of voters citywide believe taxes would drop if Los Angeles breaks apart, 47% expect taxes to rise, and 37% think they would stay the same.

Despite predictions by secession promoters that a Valley city could offer lower taxes, voters there are skeptical. Among Valley voters, 5% predict lower taxes, 40% foresee higher taxes and 43% say taxes would remain stable.

Most secession backers also say that they think their power and water rates would go up if the Valley were to break away.

Nearly half of Valley voters say secession would improve services. More than half say secession would solve the city’s worst problems. Valley voters list crime and bad schools--problems that are most severe in other parts of Los Angeles--as the city’s worst troubles.

Half of Valley voters concede that secession would have a negative impact on the rest of Los Angeles. But Paul Sundling, a computer programmer from Toluca Lake, says he will vote for secession anyway. Sundling says the rest of the city might face a drop in tax money to spend on services, but, he said, “I think everybody should pull their own weight.”

If secession does pass, the poll also found an emerging consensus among Valley voters on a name for the proposed city: San Fernando Valley. They roundly reject the other four names on the ballot: Camelot, Rancho San Fernando, Valley City and Mission Valley.

For now, said Pinkus, the campaign against secession seems to have more strength than the effort to split up Los Angeles, but the landscape could change once the television advertising begins.

“I don’t think it’s a slam dunk for either side,” she said.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Valley Secession

Where registered voters in these areas of the city stand on

Vote for Vote against

Entire city of L.A. 38% 47%

San Fernando Valley 52 37

Rest of Los Angeles 29 53

Source: L.A. Times Poll

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Valley Secession

Registered voters were read a summary of arguments for and against the San Fernando Valley’s secession from the city of Los Angeles and were then asked how they would vote on the ballot initiative if the Nov. 5 general election were being held today. (Includes those who said they are “leaning” for or against)

Voted for Voted Against

San Fernando Valley 52% 37

East Valley 45% 42

West Valley 59% 32

Latinos 52% 33

Whites 54% 38

Lived in the Valley...

less than 10 years 42% 43

10 years or longer 56% 33

whole life 52% 40

Rest of Los Angeles 29% 53

Hollywood 31% 55

Westside 35% 52

Central city 27% 55

South city 27% 53

All of city of L.A. 38% 47

Whites 43% 47

Blacks 29% 53

Latinos 36% 45

Registered Democrats 30% 54

Registered independents 52% 42

Registered Republicans 50% 36

Do you think all sections of Los Angeles receive their fair share of city services and attention, or do you think that some sections receive less than their fair share? (If unfair) Which section do you feel receives less than its fair share?

All Rest of

L.A. Valley Hollywood L.A.

Fair to all sections 13% 12 19 14

Unfair to So.-Central 28 19 25 34

Unfair to SF Valley 17 42 5 2

Unfair to downtown 6 3 7 8

Unfair to Eastside 6 2 5 8

Unfair to Hollywood 2 1 10 1

Unfair to Westside 1 - 2 2

Unfair to all sections 5 6 1 5

Unfair; don’t know

which section 8 5 13 10

Other 3 1 2 4

Don’t know 11 9 11 12

Registered voters who said they would vote for Valley secession were asked: What is the main reason you will vote for the San Fernando Valley to break away or secede from Los Angeles? (Accepted up to two replies; top responses shown)

All

Los Angeles Valley

Smaller, more efficient government 27 29

More local control 18 18

Valley taxpayers should get fair return 16 24

Better access to city services 16 18

L.A. is too big 16 14

Valley is big enough for independence 11 11

If Valley voters want it,

they should get it 11 3

L.A. takes Valley for granted 8 11

Registered voters living within the boundaries of the proposed new Valley city were asked: If the San Fernando Valley does break away from the city of Los Angeles, there have been five names proposed for the new city that will appear on the ballot. Which name would you choose?

Don’t know 5%

Wouldn’t vote (volunteered) 5%

Mission Valley 6%

Camelot 7%

Valley City 8%

Rancho San Fernando 12%

San Fernando Valley 57%

Hollywood Secession

Registered voters were read a summary of arguments for and against Hollywood’s secession from the city of Los Angeles and were then asked how they would vote on the ballot initiative if the Nov. 5 general election were being held today. (Includes those who said they are “leaning” for or against)

All Rest of

L.A. Valley Hollywood L.A.

Vote for 25% 35 24 19

Vote against 59% 47 61 66

Don’t know 16% 18 15 15

Registered voters living within the boundaries of the proposed new Hollywood city were asked: Are you aware that your neighborhood is part of the proposed independent city of Hollywood

Don’t know 1%

Not aware 32%

Aware 67%

Does the fact that your neighborhood is part of the proposed new Hollywood city please you or upset you?

Please a lot 17%

Please a little 18

Upset a little 24

Upset a lot 15

Don’t know 26

Notes: ‘ - ‘indicates less than 0.5%. Numbers may not total 100% where more than one response was accepted or some answer categories are not shown.

How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,291 registered voters in the city of Los Angeles by telephone June 20-28. The margin of sampling error for the overall city sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In order to increase the sample size of the San Fernando Valley voters, Hollywood voters, Latino voters living in the San Fernando Valley and African American voters living in the city, the main sample was supplemented to the following totals: 576 SFV voters (margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points); 120 Hollywood voters (+/- 9 points); 242 Latinos voters in the city, including 119 living in the SFV (city Latinos have a margin of error of +/- 6 points, SFV Latinos, +/- 9 points); 169 African American voters (+/- 8 points). The samples were then weighted to their proportionate share in the city. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the city of Los Angeles. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, registration and area of city. Poll results can also be affected by other factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish. Asian Americans were interviewed as part of the entire sample but there were not enough Asian voters to break out as a separate subgroup.

Times Poll results are also available at https://www.latimes.com/timespoll