WEEK 12 BREAKDOWN

BUFFALO AT NEW YORK JETS

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: New York by 3

Quick slant: Meet the new Drew.

Plot: In the AFC East, it’s all about the quarterbacks. A kid named Tom Brady wins the Super Bowl for New England, so the Patriots trade Drew Bledsoe to Buffalo, a move that instantly transforms the Bills into playoff contenders, forcing the Jets to keep up -- or at least roll the dice with Chad Pennington. Barring injury to Pennington, it’s safe to say the Vinny Testaverde era is over. In six starts, Pennington is 4-2, completing 75.3% of his passes for a 107.5 quarterback rating. Each year, three AFC quarterbacks are named to the Pro Bowl. Two of them could be playing at the Meadowlands on Sunday.

Monday’s headline: “Change Is a Good Thing, Jets Discover Again”

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DETROIT AT CHICAGO

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Chicago by 5 1/2

Quick slant: In the Black and Blue Division, this is what the other guys look like.

Plot: Soldier Field isn’t the only thing that has been torn down in Chicago this season. The Bears, playing every game on the road, have spread the dejection -- going 1-4 at their “home” field in Champaign, Ill., and 1-4 everywhere else. The Lions are 3-7, a great leap forward in Detroit. Rookie Joey Harrington is last in the NFC with a 61.2 quarterback rating, but with his next touchdown pass he ties the club rookie record, 11, shared by Charlie Batch, Jeff Komlo and Fred Enke. When the Bears look at Chris Chandler and Jim Miller, they look to next year’s draft.

Monday’s headline: “Only Temporary, They Know, But Bears Stop the Pain”

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ST. LOUIS AT WASHINGTON

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11.

The line: Off

Quick slant: Three cheers, St. Louis, for Warner’s return. How about two? One?

Plot: Kurt Warner, one-time Super Bowl hero and two-time NFL MVP, returns to the Ram starting lineup this weekend, causing hearts to sink all over St. Louis. Did you see those beautiful spirals Marc Bulger reeled off during his 5-0 long-relief stint? Did you see those nervous wobblers Warner threw during the one series he played Monday night? With no margin for error as his team heads into its stretch drive, Ram Coach Mike Martz is turning the season over to Warner. Coaching isn’t easy in this league. As Washington’s Steve Spurrier is beginning to discover.

Monday’s headline: “Warner’s Wonder Wobblers Whip Washington”

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SAN DIEGO AT MIAMI

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2.

The line: Miami by 3

Quick slant: A couple of runs at history.

Plot: Is it any surprise that neither the Dolphins nor the Chargers have had a player lead the NFL in rushing? Too many big-armed quarterbacks -- Dan Marino, Dan Fouts, John Hadl. Too many good backs in Miami at the same time -- Larry Csonka, Jim Kiick, Mercury Morris -- and then none for years. Come 2002, San Diego’s LaDainian Tomlinson (1,053 yards) and Miami’s Ricky Williams (913) are making a run at it, and Sunday they take their old Texas Christian-Texas rivalry to a new level. Subplot: Ex-Charger assistant Norv Turner tackles his greatest challenge: wringing another win out of Ray Lucas.

Monday’s headline: “Dolphins Establish Superior Running Game”

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ATLANTA AT CAROLINA

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Atlanta by 3 1/2

Quick slant: It must be the black cats on their helmets.

Plot: From the people who brought you Rae Carruth, the Panthers continue to spread joy and civic pride around Charlotte. In the last 17 days, Panther defensive linemen Julius Peppers and Brentson Buckner have tested positive for banned substances, offensive tackle Chris Terry failed to show up in court on domestic violence charges and wide receiver Steve Smith punched out teammate Anthony Bright so badly, Bright spent two nights in a hospital. Terry has since been cut, Smith and Buckner suspended with Peppers soon to join them. Sounds like a 3-7 team headed straight for 3-13.

Monday’s headline: “Charlotte Fans Convinced Wrong Team Moved to New Orleans”

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JACKSONVILLE AT DALLAS

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Jacksonville by 2 1/2

Quick slant: Kids these days ...

Plot: In Dallas, Troy Hambrick is the future, Emmitt Smith is the past, but what about the present? That’s been a bit of a problem, with Smith hanging on to break the all-time rushing record and Hambrick champing harder at the bit now that Emmitt’s got his. “I just feel like it comes a time,” Hambrick said last week. “It’s not my call to say when it’s time, but I’m a guy that wants to get my career off the ground and establish myself as a household name.” Whatever happened to respecting your elders? For Cowboy Coach Dave Campo, that’s a question to ponder as he makes his way out of town.

Monday’s headline: “Future Is Now for Jaguars”

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CINCINNATI AT PITTSBURGH

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Pittsburgh by 11

Quick slant: Kordell Stewart eases back against the Bengals. Uh-oh.

Plot: Stewart gets his latest, and probably last, chance at quarterback for the Steelers while Tommy Maddox recovers from the concussion and bruised spinal cord he suffered in Sunday’s loss to Tennessee. On paper, this is the perfect setting for Stewart to get reacclimated: a home game against the Bengals. Unless the paper you’re holding is the stat sheet from Stewart’s last game against the Bengals. Stewart was intercepted four times in a 26-23 overtime loss at Cincinnati last December. It shouldn’t happen again, but with Stewart, you and all of Pittsburgh can never be too sure.

Monday’s headline: “Batch Comes Off Bench to Rally Steelers”

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MINNESOTA AT NEW ENGLAND

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: New England by 7 1/2

Quick slant: Now or never for New England.

Plot: If it’s going to take 10 wins to return to the playoffs, the defending Super Bowl champions will have to finish their regular-season schedule 5-1. With that schedule backloaded -- the Patriots close against the Titans, the Jets and the Dolphins -- New England needs to take advantage of a three-game run against three of the flimsiest defenses in the league, the Vikings, the Lions and the Bills. Despite their 32nd-ranked defense and quarterback issues, the Vikings are 3-3 in their last six games. Minnesota leads the NFL in penalties, 91, not counting those accrued when Randy Moss is behind the steering wheel.

Monday’s headline: “For Patriots, Playoff Drive Begins Here”

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CLEVELAND AT NEW ORLEANS

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: New Orleans by 6

Quick slant: Big home stand for Saints.

Plot: Having lost two of their last three games, including a sweep by division rival Atlanta, the Saints return home for two games that very well could decide their season -- Cleveland on Sunday and Tampa Bay on Dec. 1. Cleveland, 5-5, remains in playoff contention by luck of the draw (the Browns belong to the so-soft AFC North) and a late goal-line stand in last week’s 27-20 victory over Cincinnati. That a so-called contender should need a goal-line stand to stave off the Bengals raises questions about the legitimacy of so-called contender. One more thing: Browns haven’t played on artificial turf since 2000.

Monday’s headline: “Fake Contenders Lose on Fake Grass”

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TENNESSEE AT BALTIMORE

Kickoff: Sunday, 10 a.m.

The line: Tennessee by 2

Quick slant: The Titans, so much to answer for.

Plot: The Titans couldn’t beat the Ravens at home in the 2000 playoffs, allowing the Super Bowl to be pillaged by Brian Billick’s blights, thrusting the NFL into a dark, depressing hole for 12 months before wonder kid Tom Brady miraculously rode to the rescue. Since then, the Ravens have been force-fed their just desserts -- the salary cap succeeded where the Titans had failed earlier. Baltimore is scuffling along at 4-6, with Ray Lewis in and out of the lineup, the playoffs looking like a longshot. The Titans have won their last five and are tied for first in the AFC South. Thankfully, this game is cyclical.

Monday’s headline: “White Hats Defeat Black Hats, 22 Months Too Late”

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OAKLAND AT ARIZONA

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m.

The line: Oakland by 8

Quick slant: Remember the Snow Bowl. One more time.

Plot: Last Sunday, the Raiders may have avenged last season’s controversial playoff defeat in New England, but they may never purge the memory. Figuring they had struck their final blow against tuck rules and in-your-face snow angels with their 27-20 victory over the Patriots, the Raiders were quickly reminded by Coach Bill Callahan why they had to play that game in New England in January: because they lost a gimme, at home, to Arizona in December, costing them home-field advantage. The goal this time is to ensure it doesn’t happen again. Arizona, winless in its last four, will help as much as it can.

Monday’s headline: “Raiders Romp in the Desert; No Snow in Sight”

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KANSAS CITY AT SEATTLE

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m.

The line: Kansas City by 3

Quick slant: Turning the thing around: Two case studies.

Plot: Through Week 7, these were two of the sorriest defenses in pro football. The Chiefs were yielding an average of 33 points a game; the Seahawks were last in defending against the run. Since then, the Chiefs are 2-1 after holding three potent offenses (Oakland, San Francisco, Buffalo) to 17 points or fewer. Seattle still ranks last against the run, having given up 202 rushing yards in last Sunday’s 31-9 home loss to Denver, which explains the 3-7 record. Chief running back Priest Holmes, averaging 101.2 yards a game, has a better-than-average chance of doubling that figure Sunday in Seattle.

Monday’s headline: “Chiefs Run Holmgren a Little Closer to the City Limits”

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NEW YORK GIANTS AT HOUSTON

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

The line: New York by 5 1/2

Quick slant: Jim Fassel knows how to pick his spots.

Plot: Giant Coach Fassel became something of a legend in New York in 2000 for taking his team to the Super Bowl after uttering his famous “playoff guarantee.” A giddy tale, but Fassel’s no idiot. He saw the Giants were closing their schedule against a string of noncontenders and took a calculated shot. Same deal this season when he took over the play-calling duties after a 17-3 loss at Philadelphia. Next four games were against Jacksonville, Minnesota, Washington and Houston. Guess what? Fassel’s 3-0. Amazing! Soon to be 4-0, thank you, Texans! The hard part comes Dec. 1: Giants versus Titans.

Monday’s headline: “Through Thanksgiving, Anyway, Fassel’s a Genius”

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GREEN BAY AT TAMPA BAY

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 11.

The line: Tampa Bay by 3

Quick slant: Packers, Buccaneers meet in “NFC final preview.” Uh-oh.

Plot: To the winner of this one goes the No. 1 seeding in the NFC

Monday’s headline: “Buccaneers Cancel Playoff Trip to Green Bay. For Now”

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INDIANAPOLIS AT DENVER

Kickoff: Sunday, 5:30 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

The line: Denver by 6 1/2

Quick slant: How far can Steve Beuerlein go?

Plot: More fun with football stats: Subbing for the injured Brian Griese last Sunday, Beuerlein threw two passes in the fourth quarter against Seattle. Both went for touchdowns. At that pace -- two passes for two touchdowns a quarter -- Beuerlein will break the league’s single-game record for touchdown passes (seven) Sunday and the single-season record (48) on Dec. 29 as he goes 50 for 50 passing for 50 touchdowns in the greatest 6.25-week performance in history. These are the kind of mind games Griese can play as he waits for his knee to heal while wondering if his next start will come before 2003.

Monday’s headline: “Beuerlein Wins, Digs In for the Long Haul”

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PHILADELPHIA AT SAN FRANCISCO

Kickoff: Monday, 6 p.m.

TV: Channel 7.

The line: San Francisco by 7

Quick slant: New passer versus new kicker.

Plot: Koy Detmer and Jeff Chandler step into the Monday night spotlight because last Sunday, Donovan McNabb played more than three quarters on a broken ankle ... or was it Jose Cortez? Cortez (The Rally Killer) looked the part, badly shanking a 41-yard field goal in overtime to set up the 49ers’ 20-17 loss in San Diego. That was Cortez’ fourth miss in eight tries, so Chandler, a rookie, gets his chance now. McNabb is out of the rest of regular season, possibly facing surgery, turning the Eagles’ playoff drive over to Detmer. Plus side: Detmer won his last start. Down side: That was in 1999.

Tuesday’s headline: “Nothing Koy About 49ers’ 12-9 Victory”