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Rivals Keeping Big Stick at Hand

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Times Staff Writers

Two weeks before the Los Angeles mayoral election, the top candidates are locked in an increasingly complex game of chicken as they brace for a blast of negative television ads.

As they maneuvered for advantage Monday, their strategic debate was whether negative ads would help the candidate who airs them -- or doom him to defeat in a voter backlash. With polls showing at least three top candidates vying in the March 8 election for just two slots in the likely May runoff, the stakes are huge and the outcome unpredictable.

“This is like playing three- or four-level chess,” said Democratic strategist Garry South, who backs mayoral hopeful Antonio Villaraigosa but does not work for his campaign. “You have to not only try to figure out what the possible consequences of every move you make might be, but what the consequences of the countermoves of your opponent might be. And that’s very difficult to do.”

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Setting the stage for a rise in hostilities, candidate Bob Hertzberg, a former Assembly speaker, called on incumbent James K. Hahn on Monday not to use misleading negative ads or personal attacks -- and to urge supporters to uphold the same standards for independent spending on the race. The Sherman Oaks lawyer gave Hahn 48 hours to accept his challenge, which included a one-on-one debate.

“I will be fair and honest with the people, but I will hit back just as hard as I possibly can in response to what he seeks to do,” said Hertzberg.

Hahn strategist Bill Carrick, citing a series of Hertzberg mailings attacking the mayor, called the challenge “disingenuous political doubletalk.”

“As far as I’m concerned, Bob Hertzberg already started running a negative campaign, and for him to suggest now that he wants to call it off is deceitful,” Carrick said.

So far, none of the candidates has gone on the attack in television advertising, the main avenue for reaching voters in an L.A.’s mayor’s race.

In keeping with the positive tone set so far, the latest spot, released Monday, shows Villaraigosa promoting himself as a city councilman and former Assembly speaker who has proved he can “get things done.”

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Villaraigosa “led the fight for more police, expanded neighborhood watches, demolished a crack house and organized residents to clean up graffiti,” the ad says.

But in targeted mailings across the city, the gloves have already come off. One Hertzberg mailing showed a wad of cash and a black sedan outside City Hall with a “JHAHN” license plate and a bumper sticker saying, “I brake for campaign contributors.” Another mailer said Hahn had “failed our kids” by opposing a proposed breakup of the massive Los Angeles Unified School District.

Hertzberg’s 48-hour deadline seemed to suggest imminent movement toward a broader assault. His demand came with a cryptic reference suggesting that each candidate should “leave all of our families out of this campaign.”

“Each one of the candidates has personal issues,” he said.

The difficulty in going negative in a multi-candidate race is the unpredictability of the effect. In a classic two-person race, negative ads generally hurt the attacker but -- if done well -- hurt the opponent even more, making for a net gain for the attacker. In multi-candidate races, however, voters could recoil at both the person launching the ad and the intended target, and choose another candidate altogether.

Such was the case in the 1998 gubernatorial primary, when millionaire Democrats Al Checchi and Jane Harman assaulted each other over the airwaves. The beneficiary was a third candidate -- the eventual winner, Gray Davis.

Adding to the complications is the short stretch of time before the election. And independent groups -- by law outside the candidates’ control -- could launch negative television advertising that would scramble the dynamics of the race.

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Some candidates were proceeding gingerly Monday while others nursed routine criticisms.

At a Van Nuys campaign stop, Villaraigosa pledged to wage “a very positive, hopeful campaign.”

“Of course, this time around, if someone tries to mischaracterize or misrepresent our record, we’re going to respond,” he added. “And more than once.” Villaraigosa was criticized in the 2001 race for failing to respond swiftly enough to critical ads by Hahn.

Another candidate, Councilman Bernard C. Parks, has been the most aggressive in public remarks, repeatedly calling City Hall corrupt despite the lack of criminal charges against anyone in Hahn’s administration. Parks has said he expects to advertise on television only in the final 10 days of the race but has not indicated whether his ads would be positive or negative.

On Monday, Parks crisscrossed the city, appearing on a morning rush-hour radio show, meeting with senior citizens and joining three of Hahn’s other challengers at a Korean American candidates forum.

Another candidate, state Sen. Richard Alarcon (D-Sun Valley), touted his plans to curb poverty in an appearance on KPFK-FM (90.7). Alarcon also hammered Hertzberg for his proposal to break up the school district, calling it “gross political pandering” to San Fernando Valley voters.

As for Hahn, he appeared Monday at a trash facility in South Los Angeles, where he spoke of his plans for ending the city’s use of the unpopular Sunshine Canyon Landfill in Granada Hills by 2006.

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Hahn said he had no plans to run negative ads, but added, “If I’m put in a position of having to respond, we’ll respond.”

Attacking Villaraigosa and Hertzberg in a City Hall interview last week, Hahn appeared to indicate potential lines of attack should he run negative television ads. He renewed criticism of Hertzberg, who was speaker during the state’s energy crisis, for taking campaign money from power companies.

And he pounded Villaraigosa for backing legislation that favored campaign donors whom Hahn described as “payday loan companies” that charge “450% interest over the course of the year and put poor people in terrible situations.”

“I’m sure Antonio thought this was really a good thing for consumers to be able to have payday loans, and it had nothing to do with the campaign contributions he got from them,” Hahn said.

Villaraigosa campaign manager Ace Smith responded: “Being called corrupt by Mayor Hahn is like being called ugly by a bullfrog.”

Times staff writers Jessica Garrison, Matea Gold, Daniel Hernandez, Noam N. Levey and Jeffrey L. Rabin contributed to this report.

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