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Sam Farmer's NFL Week 3 picks

Sam Farmer's NFL Week 3 picks
Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller (58) hits Baltimore Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco (5), who throws an incomplete pass on third down in the third quarter at M&T Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland, Sunday, December 16, 2012. (Karl Merton Ferron / Baltimore Sun)

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 8-7-1 (.533); season 16-14-2 (.533). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-10 (.375); season 13-18-1 (.419).

DENVER BRONCOS (2-0) at BALTIMORE RAVENS (1-1)

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Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Ravens by 5 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Broncos aren’t a powerhouse, but there’s a lot to like about them, including a good defense and a QB who can win close games. But this is a tough road game versus a defense that can be smothering.

Ravens 21, Broncos 17

CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-0) at CAROLINA PANTHERS (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Panthers by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Bengals are rolling on offense, even though they’ve lost Joe Mixon for a couple of weeks. But solid teams tend not to lose two in a row, particularly when the second game is at home.

Panthers 28, Bengals 24

TENNESSEE TITANS (1-1) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

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Line: Off the board. O/U: Off the board.

The Jaguars are legit. They’re one of the elite teams, and they’re at home. Their defense is an East Coast answer to the Rams and isn’t likely to falter to Tennessee, no matter who’s at QB for the Titans.

Jaguars 28, Titans 17

OAKLAND RAIDERS (0-2) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Dolphins by 3. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Raiders got the passing game going at Denver but then did Raiders stuff — dumb penalties, defensive miscues, etc. The Dolphins are 2-0, a head-scratcher, but they’re home against zero pass rush.

Dolphins 24, Raiders 20

BUFFALO BILLS (0-2) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (1-0-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Vikings by 16 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Bills aren’t good, and they’re heading into a meat grinder. The Vikings are one of the top teams, and they’re steamed after blowing a chance to knock off Green Bay at Lambeau.

Vikings 31, Bills 10

NEW ORLEANS (1-1) at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 53 1/2.

The Saints will bounce back after a lackluster Week 2 performance. They have more firepower than the Falcons, and Atlanta losing Deion Jones and Keanu Neal really hurts. Drew Brees gets it done.

Saints 31, Falcons 27

NEW YORK GIANTS (0-2) at HOUSTON TEXANS (0-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Texans by 6. O/U: 42.

Giants have many offensive weapons, but the line is really bad. The Texans are com- ing off a humiliating loss to a bunch of Titans backups. Will Fuller’s return helps Deshaun Watson and Houston wins.

Texans 23, Giants 17

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-1) at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Chiefs by 6 1/2. O/U: 55 1/2.

Patrick Mahomes threw four TD passes in the opener, then six more in Week 2. That’s scary. The Chiefs can score in so many ways, plus they’re at home. The 49ers scored 30 on a bad Detroit defense.

Chiefs 34, 49ers 27

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-1) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Eagles by 6 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Eagles need a win, and good teams don’t lose two in a row. Carson Wentz might be rusty, but he’ll have the backing of a typically solid defense that will bounce back from embarrassment in Tampa.

Eagles 27, Colts 23

GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-0-1) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Packers by 3. O/U: 45 1/2.

Andrew Luck tore up the Redskins last weekend. The Packers are coming in with Aaron Rodgers, and it doesn’t matter if he’s on the road or playing on a tender knee. The Packers will run a little too.

Packers 28, Redskins 21

CHARGERS (1-1) at RAMS (2-0)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Rams by 7. O/U: 48.

Never count out Philip Rivers, and the Chargers offense is explosive. Their defense isn’t the same without Joey Bosa, but talented nonetheless. The Rams look excellent in all three phases.

Rams 28, Chargers 24

CHICAGO BEARS (1-1) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (0-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Bears by 5 1/2. O/U: 38.

The Bears defense is too good for a team that didn’t cross midfield against the Rams until the final play. The Cardinals need to reboot and rebuild around Josh Rosen, who should be starting at QB.

Bears 24, Cardinals 13

DALLAS COWBOYS (1-1) at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (0-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 717.

Line: Seahawks by 1 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Retooled Seahawks have taken a big step backward. The line can’t protect Russell Wilson, who has been sacked a league-high 12 times. Cowboys aren’t very good, though, and Seattle is still a tough place.

Seahawks 24, Cowboys 21

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-1) at DETROIT LIONS (0-2)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Patriots by 6 1/2. O/U: 54.

The Patriots aren’t going to lose back-to-back games, and certainly not in prime time. They come back and handle business against a defense that is bad, and a Detroit running game that’s worse.

Patriots 31, Lions 20

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (0-1-1) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-0)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Steelers by 1. O/U: 54.

Is Ryan Fitzpatrick going to throw for 400 yards three weeks in a row? Not against a Steelers team that, albeit flawed, isn’t going to lay an egg in prime time. A revealing game for both teams.

Steelers 30, Buccaneers 21

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