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AFC team outlooks

Denver Broncos wide receiver Wes Welker, left, and New England Patriots wideout Danny Amendola, right, are new faces on teams slated to make a run at the playoffs.
(David Zalubowski / Associated Press / Jared Wickerham / Getty Images)
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Sam Farmer’s team outlooks are listed in predicted order of finish.

WEST

DENVER BRONCOS
2012 | 13-3, 1st in West
Last year in playoffs | 2012

They’re going all the way: The Broncos were 99% of the way to the AFC title game when they blew the coverage against Baltimore, gave up a pivotal touchdown and had their Super Bowl dreams evaporate. Peyton Manning had an MVP-caliber season, the Broncos were even better on defense, and the team is better this year. Slot receiver Wes Welker will be a tremendous help, in the middle of the field, and Denver should be able to revive its once-potent ground game.

They’re doomed: Losing linebacker Von Miller to a six-game suspension really hurts — he had 18 1/2 sacks last season — as does losing Elvis Dumervil to Baltimore and center Dan Koppen to a season-ending knee injury.

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Now hear this: “Our expectations are we want to compete for a championship every year. But we temper those with the knowledge that you also have to have a little bit of luck and stay healthy.” —John Elway, executive vice president of football operations

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2012 | 7-9, 2nd in West
Last year in playoffs | 2009

They’re going all the way: Philip Rivers remains a quality quarterback and the Chargers have slightly upgraded their line to protect him. If Ryan Mathews can stay healthy, he might be able to provide the punch the ground game has lacked. Norv Turner is gone, and Coach Mike McCoy brings a fresh outlook.

They’re doomed: How much better is that offensive line, with a rookie tackle on the right side and King Dunlap on the left? Even with blocking, can Rivers regain the mojo he had earlier in his career? Offensive playmakers are in short supply. The Chargers are vulnerable on defense and are investing a lot of hope in untested linebacker Manti T’eo, who has battled injury.

Now hear this: “I like this group of guys a lot because we see how hard they work and know they’ll go out and fight. That’s the big thing. This is a group of guys who look to prove people wrong.” — Tom Telesco, general manager, on offensive line

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2012 | 2-14, 4th in West
Last year in playoffs | 2010

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They’re going all the way: The Chiefs made a bit of strange history last season. According to Elias Sports Bureau, they were the first team to have six Pro Bowl players and fewer than six victories in a season. This team has promise, especially with Andy Reid as coach and Alex Smith at quarterback. Jamaal Charles is going to run for a lot of yards and catch a lot of passes. Their return teams were outstanding this summer.

They’re doomed: Which Smith will show up? The new or old one? The Chiefs are young and inexperienced along the offensive line, despite having No. 1 pick Eric Fisher at right tackle. Left tackle Brandon Albert is the only truly seasoned starting lineman. K.C. needs to develop a second receiver to complement Dwayne Bowe.

Now hear this: “We’d love to stick it to everybody who thought we couldn’t do it, he and I included.” — Smith, to the New York Times, about how he and Reid are approaching season

OAKLAND RAIDERS
2012 | 4-12, 3rd in West
Last year in playoffs | 2002

They’re going all the way: When healthy, running back Darren McFadden can do some damage. Problem is, in five NFL seasons he has never played more than 13 games and is coming off a career-low 3.3 yards per carry. On defense, Charles Woodson can be a stabilizing force on the field and in the locker room. First-round pick D.J. Hayden has big potential if he can stay on the field. The team’s best weapon is kicker Sebastian Janikowski.

They’re doomed: Quarterback heads a laundry list of problems for this team. Matt Flynn has looked shaky this summer and, according to reports, erratic Terrelle Pryor will be the starter. A staggering $49 million of the Raiders’ salary-cap space is devoted to players no longer on the roster.

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Now hear this: “I think they’re going in the right direction, but the road is a long one.” — Hall of Fame coach John Madden, to ProFootballSlam.com, on the direction of Raiders owner Mark Davis and General Manager Reggie McKenzie.

SOUTH

HOUSTON TEXANS
2012 | 12-4, 1st in South
Last year in playoffs | 2012

They’re going all the way: The Texans finally have what looks to be a capable complement to No. 1 receiver Andre Johnson in first-round pick DeAndre Hopkins, who caught 18 touchdown passes at Clemson last season and led the Atlantic Coast Conference in receiving. That’s good news for quarterback Matt Schaub and should help get Johnson open more.

They’re doomed: It’s troubling that running back Arian Foster was sidelined for most of training camp by injuries to his calf and back. He’s the linchpin of Houston’s offense, and the Texans can’t afford to lose him for games that actually count. Houston’s defense is in transition, losing linebacker Connor Barwin and others, but still has All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt and a lot of promise on that side of the ball.

Now hear this: “I’ve been lobbying since day one. It hasn’t worked yet, so I don’t think it’s going to work any time soon.” — Watt, to the Houston Chronicle, on his desire to play on offense

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2012 | 11-5, 2nd in South
Last year in playoffs | 2012

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They’re going all the way: Last season’s U-turn is a tough act to follow, with Andrew Luck leading the left-for-dead franchise to 11 wins and a playoff berth, and in the process passing for more yards (4,374) than any rookie in NFL history. The Colts have taken steps to upgrade their offensive line — time will tell on that — and have excellent receivers in Reggie Wayne and second-year standout T.Y. Hilton. Their defense remains a work in progress.

They’re doomed: Bruce Arians became the first interim to win coach-of-the-year honors last season, but he’s in Arizona now and the team is back in the hands of Chuck Pagano. We’ll find out if that’s good or bad, because no one truly knows what type of head coach Pagano is. The Colts had the 26th-ranked defense last season, and righting that ship won’t be easy.

Now hear this: “When Luck is throwing the ball the way he’s throwing it, we can’t be stopped.” — Hilton, to Fox Sports

TENNESSEE TITANS
2012 | 6-10, 3rd in South
Last year in playoffs | 2008

They’re going all the way: Chris Johnson hasn’t come close to the 2,000-yard season he had in 2009, but he had a handful of breakout games last fall. If the Titans can get him on track, that will take some of the pressure off quarterback Jake Locker. The Titans have several playmaking receivers, led by Kenny Britt, and the addition of tight end Delanie Walker should help.

They’re doomed: Tennessee gave up 29.4 points per game last year, worst in the league, and the tweaks the Titans made in the off-season — adding safeties Bernard Pollard and George Wilson, chief among them — don’t constitute an overhaul.

Now hear this: “The thing I won’t ever compromise on, or otherwise I’ll retire, is effort and toughness. So there is no excuse for a loaf in this league. That is what this game is about, and players don’t want to play with someone who doesn’t get that, and coaches don’t want to coach them.” — Gregg Williams, defensive coordinator, to the Tennessean newspaper

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2012 | 2-14, 4th in South
Last year in playoffs | 2007

They’re going all the way: Maybe the regime change — new Coach Gus Bradley, and new General Manager David Caldwell — can invigorate this struggling franchise. Beleaguered quarterback Blaine Gabbert looked better than expected in the preseason, and, as always, a lot of hope rests on the shoulders of Maurice Jones-Drew, the 2011 NFL rushing champion, who sat out most of last season (broken foot).

They’re doomed: The Jaguars were 30th in defense last season, and 29th in offense. They have a long way to go. Drafting tackle Luke Joeckel was a solid step toward rebuilding — a new-age Tony Boselli in the making? — but it’s a reach to say the franchise can make a quick turnaround. Then again, Indianapolis did it last season.

Now hear this: “Me and Pete are similar in personality. We’re intrigued by competition, by bringing people together. It’s a driving force for us.” —Bradley, on what he learned as a Seattle assistant under Pete Carroll

NORTH

CINCINNATI BENGALS
2012 | 10-6, 2nd in North
Last year in playoffs | 2012

They’re going all the way: Andy Dalton is the only quarterback to lead the Bengals to the playoffs in his first two seasons, and A.J. Green’s 162 catches in his first two seasons in the league are an NFL record. James Harrison bolsters a defense ranked sixth last season.

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They’re doomed: Coordinator Jay Gruden, younger brother of Jon, is heading into his third season and has what figures to be his best all-around offense — but will that translate into respectable numbers? Even with Dalton and Green putting up those gaudy numbers, the Bengals haven’t had a top-20 offense in five years.

Now hear this: “We sometimes are portrayed as almost villainous. The players are sometimes thought to be selfish or even criminal. I’m going to the far end of the spectrum there, but we get some very difficult criticism.” —Bengals owner Mike Brown, to FoxSports.com, on desire to have “Hard Knocks” improve the team’s image

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2012 | 8-8, 3rd in North
Last year in playoffs | 2011

They’re going all the way: The Steelers have a history of bouncing back from mediocre seasons. Ben Roethlisberger and offensive coordinator Todd Haley are supposedly on the same page, much more than last season. The offensive line is younger and more athletic, and the infusion of youth has made for a more cohesive locker room.

They’re doomed: The youth issue cuts both ways, and the Steelers have a relatively inexperienced roster. Pittsburgh had a minus-10 turnover differential last season. The problem with the running game probably isn’t solved, especially with Le’Veon Bell’s foot injury. Considering Rashard Mendenhall, David DeCastro, and now Bell, can the Steelers keep a highly drafted rookie healthy?

Now hear this: “The expectations were set long ago, and they haven’t changed. It was devastating to come down the stretch the way we did and to give it away.” — Haley on last season

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BALTIMORE RAVENS
2012 | 10-6, 1st in North
Last year in playoffs | 2012

They’re going all the way: These are new- look Ravens, but they still have talented cornerstones — quarterback Joe Flacco, running back Ray Rice, linebacker Terrell Suggs, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. Gone are fixtures linebacker Ray Lewis, safety Ed Reed and center Matt Birk.

They’re doomed: It’s the rare champion that doesn’t suffer a Super Bowl hangover, and these Ravens didn’t just lose those old-guard All-Pros, but essential standouts such as linebackers Dannell Ellerbe and Paul Kruger, defensive backs Bernard Pollard and Cary Williams, and receiver Anquan Boldin. They also lost tight end Dennis Pitta to injury.

Now hear this: “I love Ray, and I love how he always spoke from the heart, but if you listened to those speeches, a lot of them didn’t even make sense. He meant everything he was saying, but I didn’t know what he was talking about 90% of the time.” —Flacco, to ESPN the Magazine, on Lewis

CLEVELAND BROWNS
2012 | 5-11, 4th in North
Last year in playoffs | 2002

They’re going all the way: Maybe Norv Turner can get the best out of second-year quarterback Brandon Weeden. Although Weeden is plodding and not a quick decision-maker, he did throw for 3,385 yards last season, ranking him seventh all-time among NFL rookies. Trent Richardson is a solid runner and will get a ton of carries.

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They’re doomed: Never mind the Super Bowl, Browns fans just want to see their team win an opener. Since re-forming as a franchise in 1999, the Browns have lost 13 of 14 openers, with 13 coming at home. During that span, they have used 10 starting quarterbacks and are on their sixth head coach. This year, they again open at home, against Miami, on Sunday.

Now hear this: “If the Browns would like anything beyond a developmental year, Richardson will need to be one of the best running backs in the league. Based on his potential, that’s not out of the question.” —Bill Polian, former NFL personnel executive, now of ESPN.

EAST

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2012 | 12-4, 1st in West
Last year in playoffs | 2012

They’re going all the way: Hard to discount a franchise that still has Bill Belichick as coach and Tom Brady at quarterback. These are the Patriots, after all, who have won nine of the past 10 division titles outright, and tied for the other one. The offensive line is strong.

They’re doomed: Wes Welker is gone, Rob Gronkowski is injured and Aaron Hernandez is in jail. The top returning targets are Julian Edelman (21 catches), running back Shane Vereen (eight) and tight end Michael Hoomanawanui (five). The addition of receiver Danny Amendola helps but doesn’t make up for losing 82% of the team’s catches in 2012.

Now hear this: “If we are going to kick off in two weeks, we are going to have to play a hell of a lot better than this. ... It’s a very humbling game and if you don’t bring it every single night, every week, you get your butt kicked.” —Brady, after a 40-9 exhibition loss at Detroit

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MIAMI DOLPHINS
2012 | 7-9, 2nd in East
Last year in playoffs | 2008

They’re going all the way: After an extreme makeover, the Dolphins are a new-look team with at least nine new starters, among them ex-Pittsburgh receiver Mike Wallace and ex-Baltimore linebacker Dannell Ellerbe. Cameron Wake (15 sacks) leads a defense that finished seventh in points given up (19.8) last season.

They’re doomed: The loss of tight end Dustin Keller to a knee injury is a big blow. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is young, and it’s not uncommon for second-year quarterbacks to take a step backward. Reggie Bush is gone, and even though he wasn’t the ideal fit for that offense, he was the team’s most dynamic playmaker last season.

Now hear this: “We certainly want to make the playoffs. That was all done with that in mind. But I want to see growth in the team, and building the foundation for this season and future seasons as well. I don’t want to be a one-shot wonder.” — Stephen Ross, Dolphins owner

NEW YORK JETS
2012 | 6-10, 3rd in East
Last year in playoffs | 2010

They’re going all the way: With Tim Tebow gone, the Jets aren’t as much of a media circus. Now, they’re just heavily under construction. If pressure is a motivator, Coach Rex Ryan is swimming in motivation. Hard to believe this franchise is just three years removed from reaching the AFC title game in consecutive seasons.

They’re doomed: After an awkward, camp-long competition between quarterbacks Mark Sanchez and Geno Smith, Sanchez was injured (shoulder) behind a second-string line in garbage time of a preseason game. Rookie Smith was named the starter Wednesday. There are rumblings that receiver Santonio Holmes has been milking his foot injury, and the team’s onetime best defensive player, Darrelle Revis, now plays for Tampa Bay.

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Now hear this: “It will turn around. We’ll get back on track, get a couple wins, and once we get in the playoffs this year we’ll make a little run.” — Sanchez, around the start of camp

BUFFALO BILLS
2012 | 6-10, 4th in East
Last year in playoffs | 1999

They’re going all the way: The Bills have an explosive running back in C.J. Spiller, a star-studded (though underachieving) defensive front, and a ball-hawking safety in Jairus Byrd. Well, that’s a start. They benefit from the fact there’s only one dominant team in the division.

They’re doomed: Kevin Kolb is on injured reserve (concussion), and first-round pick EJ Manuel is recovering from a procedure on his knee but could start the opener ahead of undrafted rookie quarterback Jeff Tuel. Buffalo lacks depth at receiver and is average along the offensive line. This is a rebuilding project, and first-year Coach Doug Marrone has to be careful not to overload Spiller while the rest of the team tries to catch up.

Now hear this: “It’s real simple: We’re going to give him the ball until he throws up. So he’s either got to tap out or throw up on the field.” — Nathaniel Hackett, offensive coordinator, to WGR 550 in Buffalo on Spiller

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