Orange County Prep Review : Baseball Playoffs: Who’s In, Who’s Not and Who Has a Chance

Predicting which Orange County high schools will advance to the Southern Section baseball playoffs next week is about as easy as predicting “whodunit” throughout an Agatha Christie novel.

There are so many scenarios and twists and turns that you might as well wait until you get to the last page instead of trying to figure it out.

Heading into the final week of the regular season, only 11 of the county’s 27 playoff berths (in nine leagues) have been clinched. There are 35 teams in contention for the other 16 spots.

Either Tustin or Foothill high schools, tied for first place going into their meeting Tuesday, could clinch a share of the Century League championship with a victory. However, it’s possible that the loser could finish fourth and out of the playoffs.

The same holds true for Garden Grove, which could gain a share of the Garden Grove League title by defeating Bolsa Grande on Wednesday, but could finish fourth if it loses twice this week.

First-place Saddleback could earn a share of the Sea View League title with a victory this week, or it could lose two and possibly miss the playoffs.

Third-place Mission Viejo, the 2-A runnerup, could win a share of the South Coast League title. The Diablos could also be spectators come tournament time.

The playoff picture is clouded in all but one league--the Angelus--where Servite, St. Paul and Bishop Amat have clinched 4-A berths.

Coaches will be dusting off their league constitutions this week to see how ties will be broken. There could be playoff games to determine which teams advance. There could be coin flips.

“I’ve thought about it so much, I’m confused,” Savanna Coach Mike Quigley said of the Orange League race, where two of six teams have clinched playoff berths but the other four are still alive.

Said Magnolia Coach Don Popovich: “It’s a circus.”

Here’s a closer look at how the league races are shaping up:

Angelus League--Servite can clinch a share of the title by defeating Bishop Amat once this week. St. Paul, which closes with two games against Bishop Montgomery, and Bishop Amat also have wrapped up 4-A playoff berths. This week’s play will determine only the order of the seeds.

Century League--A tossup. Five teams--Tustin, Foothill, Canyon, El Modena and Santa Ana--are in contention for playoff spots and four could win the league title. Tustin travels to Foothill on Tuesday and closes at El Modena on Friday. Foothill plays at Santa Ana Friday.

Canyon, which is tied for second with El Modena, has the easiest remaining schedule as the Comanches host Villa Park on Tuesday and Orange on Friday. But Canyon, which has lost two straight and has 15 hits in its last four games, has been struggling.

Should Canyon win at least one of its remaining games, El Modena must beat Santa Ana Tuesday to stay alive. Santa Ana, which plays Foothill Friday, is a long shot.

“It’s not gonna be decided until the last game,” Saint Coach Bill Ross said. “We could decide a lot of people’s fate, but I don’t think we can do anything. We’re kind of helpless.”

Head-to-head competition is the first tie-breaking criterion, and competition against the league’s top teams is the second. But because it is unclear who the champion and second-place team will be, it’s impossible to apply the tie-breaker at this point.

Empire League--Esperanza has clinched a share of the title and El Dorado has clinched at least second place. Third place is anyone’s guess. Loara, Los Alamitos, Katella and Kennedy all have a shot.

None of the remaining contenders have an easy schedule this week. Loara plays Kennedy and Esperanza, Los Alamitos meets Pacifica and El Dorado, Katella plays Esperanza and Cypress, and Kennedy plays Loara and Pacifica.

The key game is Loara at Kennedy on Tuesday. If the Saxons win and if Los Alamitos and Katella split their remaining two games, as expected, Loara would finish third, regardless of Friday’s game against Esperanza. If the Saxons lose, Los Alamitos would have the best shot at third.

Freeway League--Sonora is the league champion, but Fullerton, Troy and Sunny Hills are battling for the remaining two playoff spots.

Fullerton can clinch a berth by defeating Sunny Hills once this week. With an Indian win, Troy would need a split with last-place Buena Park to take third place. If Fullerton and Troy finish tied for second, Fullerton would earn the No. 2 seed by virtue of its 2-1 series edge over Troy.

If Sunny Hills sweeps Fullerton and Troy sweeps Buena Park, Troy and Sunny Hills would be the second and third seeds. However, a Lancer sweep, combined with a Troy split, would create a three-way tie for second place and force a playoff Saturday.

Garden Grove League--Five of the six teams--Garden Grove, La Quinta, Santiago, Bolsa Grande and Rancho Alamitos--are in the running for a 2-A playoff spot. Garden Grove can clinch a berth with a win over Bolsa Grande this week, and La Quinta can clinch a spot with a win over last-place Los Amigos.

Santiago can clinch at least third by defeating Rancho Alamitos once this week, because if the Cavaliers finish in a third-place tie with Bolsa Grande, Santiago would advance to the playoffs by virtue of its 2-1 series advantage over the Cavaliers.

Orange League--Western is the league champion and Valencia has second place locked up, but the battle for third place rages on. Magnolia, Brea-Olinda and Savanna are tied, and Anaheim is in last place but only a game back.

Brea, which closes against Valencia on Wednesday and Western on Friday, has the toughest road. Third place could come down to Friday’s game between Savanna and Magnolia. Barring upsets, Brea should lose twice, Magnolia should defeat Anaheim on Wednesday, and Western should beat Savanna on Wednesday.

Magnolia would be a game ahead of Savanna entering Friday’s game against the Rebels but would still need a win to advance. Should Savanna beat Magnolia, the Rebels would earn the third seed because of their 2-1 series edge over Magnolia.

For Anaheim to advance, the Colonists must beat Magnolia and Valencia, hope that Savanna loses its last two games and that Brea loses at least once. If Anaheim ties Magnolia or Brea, the Colonists would go to the playoffs because they will have won the season series against both teams.

Sea View League--Another mess. Four teams--Saddleback, University, Estancia and Laguna Beach--have a shot at the league title, as well as the three playoff spots. The Roadrunners can clinch a playoff spot with a win in their last two games against Estancia and Corona del Mar.

University plays Woodbridge Tuesday and Laguna Beach Thursday; Estancia plays Saddleback and Woodbridge, and Laguna Beach closes against Newport Harbor and University. Neither team has the advantage in the schedule, but the Trojans and Eagles are obviously in better shape because they enter the final week a game ahead of the Artists.

Tie-breaking procedures are head-to-head competition and then a coin flip. University has beaten Estancia twice but lost to Laguna Beach the first time. Estancia has split with Laguna Beach. If there is a three-way tie for second, the teams with the best records against the other two advance.

South Coast League--Irvine and Capistrano Valley have clinched playoff spots, and the Vaqueros, who close against Mission Viejo Thursday, are assured of at least a share of the title. Mission Viejo, Laguna Hills and Dana Hills are contending for the third playoff berth.

The Diablos, who have lost two straight, play El Toro on Tuesday, Irvine on Thursday and will meet Dana Hills Friday in a game that will be resumed in the top of the fifth inning with Mission Viejo leading, 5-4. The makeup is the result of the Diablos’ successful protest of a 6-5 loss to the Dolphins in March.

Laguna Hills, which has won four straight, closes against Capistrano Valley and Dana Hills, and Dana Hills, which is 2 1/2 games behind Mission Viejo, goes against San Clemente, Laguna Hills and Mission Viejo.

Sunset League--Ocean View is the league champion, but the other two playoff representatives won’t be decided until Saturday.

Westminster, which closes against Marina and Ocean View, and Huntington Beach, which closes against Ocean View and Fountain Valley, can clinch playoff spots by winning a game this week.

Fountain Valley, which is 1 1/2 games out of third place, closes against Edison and Huntington Beach, and Marina, which is two games back, closes against Westminster and Edison.

In case of ties, Westminster has swept the season series against Huntington Beach, won the series against Fountain Valley, 2-1, and split against Marina. Huntington Beach won the series against Marina and has split against Fountain Valley. Fountain Valley won its series against Marina.

Prep Notes

Ron Drake of Mission Viejo will coach the South team and Dave Bowman of Western will coach the North in the 19th Orange County All-Star baseball game scheduled for June 10 at Glover Stadium in Anaheim. . . . Herschel Musick, assistant baseball coach at Santa Ana, will be coaching a new Metro League baseball team this summer and will be holding tryouts May 17-18 at 10 a.m. and May 21 at 5 p.m. at Santa Ana High School. All high school graduates and college players with remaining eligibility are welcome.