Sam Farmer’s NFL Week 4 picks

The Times’ NFL writer, Sam Farmer, examines this week’s matchups. Lines according to Pregame.com (O/U = over/under). Last week’s record 11-5 (.688); season 27-19-2 (.587). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-8 (.500); season 21-26-1 (.447). Washington and Carolina have the week off. Times are Pacific.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-1) at ATLANTA FALCONS (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 705.

Line: Falcons by 4. O/U: 52.

Even if A.J. Green can’t play, the Bengals will be able to put up points, and they’re facing a banged-up Falcons defense. Still, Atlanta gets the edge here against an underperforming Bengals D.

Falcons 31, Bengals 27

BUFFALO BILLS (1-2) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (1-1-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 706.

Line: Packers by 10. O/U: 45 1/2.

Props to the Bills for blowing out the Vikings on the road, but the world tilts back onto its axis this week and Aaron Rodgers takes care of business. He’s not at peak health but doesn’t need to be.

Packers 27, Bills 17

HOUSTON TEXANS (0-3) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 707.

Line: Colts by 2. O/U: 47.

The Texans would never win at Indianapolis, but they broke that slide a couple of years ago. Houston’s talented defense has been a no-show this season but finally wakes up this week.

Texans 24, Colts 17

MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-0) at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 708.

Line: Patriots by 6 1/2. O/U: 48.

The Dolphins are a flimsy 3-0, and they’re not going to be the team that hands Patriots a third consecutive loss. Josh Gordon will help hold over Patriots until return of Julian Edelman next week.

Patriots 28, Dolphins 20

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (2-1) at CHICAGO BEARS (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 709.

Line: Bears by 3. O/U: 46 1/2.

Bears have a scary defense, and a play-wrecker in Khalil Mack. But they try to be too clever on offense with the Oregon-infused schemes of Mark Helfrich. Ryan Fitzpatrick has some magic left.

Buccaneers 24, Bears 21

DETROIT LIONS (1-2) at DALLAS COWBOYS (1-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: Channel 11. DirecTV: 710.

Line: Cowboys by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.

Which Lions will we see? Spin the wheel. Like a lot of bad teams, they’re different from week to week. Dallas isn’t any better, though, and the Cowboys offense is inept. Take the better quarterback here.

Lions 28, Cowboys 21

NEW YORK JETS (1-2) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 711.

Line: Jaguars by 7 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Defensive struggle here, and Jacksonville’s offense wakes up a bit after mustering only two field goals in last Sunday’s loss to Tennessee. The Jaguars aren’t going to lose two in a row.

Jaguars 21, Jets 17

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (2-1) at TENNESSEE TITANS (2-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 712.

Line: Eagles by 4. O/U: 41.

The Titans have played surprisingly well, but Philadelphia’s defense is too much for them this week. With Carson Wentz back, and as some of his receivers return, the Eagles will start getting traction.

Eagles 24, Titans 13

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (1-2) at ARIZONA CARDINALS (0-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 713.

Line: Seahawks by 3. O/U: 38 1/2.

The Seahawks defense is not the same, but still presents a daunting challenge for rookie Josh Rosen, who is making his starting debut for the Cardinals. Russell Wilson gets it done for Seattle.

Seahawks 24, Cardinals 14

CLEVELAND BROWNS (1-1-1) at OAKLAND RAIDERS (0-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 714.

Line: Raiders by 3. O/U: 45.

Hard to run on the Raiders, but they have no pass rush. Derek Carr has made a lot of bad decisions so far, and he’s facing a solid Cleveland defense. Can Baker Mayfield keep it rolling? Yes.

Browns 23, Raiders 21

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-2) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (1-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 2. DirecTV: 715.

Line: Chargers by 10. O/U: 46.

The Chargers aren’t the same without Joey Bosa, but they still have a lot of talent on defense and an offense that can score like crazy. The 49ers are a different team without Jimmy Garoppolo.

Chargers 28, 49ers 17

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-1) at NEW YORK GIANTS (1-2)

Sunday, 1:15 p.m.

TV: None. DirecTV: 716.

Line: Saints by 3. O/U: 50 1/2.

This has the makings of a shootout, especially with the way Drew Brees is clicking. The Giants will get better as the season goes on, but the Saints are a step ahead and have too many weapons.

Saints 31, Giants 27

BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1) at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-1-1)

Sunday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: Channel 4.

Line: Steelers by 3. O/U: 51.

Steelers have a high-powered offense, but the defense isn’t what they’ve come to expect. Baltimore is typically tough on defense. Still, it’s risky to bet against the Steelers in a prime-time game.

Steelers 23, Ravens 21

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (3-0) at DENVER BRONCOS (2-1)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

TV: ESPN.

Line: Chiefs by 4. O/U: 551/2.

Patrick Mahomes is for real, and the Chiefs are loaded on offense — so much so that they can deal with defensive shortcomings. Chiefs will probably cool as season goes on, but not now.

Chiefs 31, Broncos 24

sam.farmer@latimes.com

Follow Sam Farmer on Twitter @LATimesfarmer